If the Celtics are looking to rebuild after Allen and Garnett's contracts expire, I bet Pierce could be available for little more than a Batum S&T. Would that qualify as a legit step in a reload process?
Conservative thinkers who always want the "realistic" thing to happen will never get anything done. It's your way of thinking that leads to mediocrity. The 20/80 will apply to any other picks outside the top 5. Guaranteed. Deron Williams...long shot...sure, but you have to do it. He's friends with Aldridge, there's a better situation here in terms of available talent to win, he's stated he doesn't care about market size and we have cap space to get him. Maybe he won't sign here, but to think that using draft picks that only have a 20% chance of providing a servicable player in the league is the answer is foolish. You say its the "deepest draft", big deal. I listed the last dozen years of drafts at that spot, and there wasn't much there after years and years of this. You say to pick and choose other guys who were drafted #10 or #9 or wherever. Big deal, another 20% chance. For every one serviceable player at that draft spot, I can name 4 more that suck. As I said repeatedly, you need top 3 picks in the draft if you want to "build through the draft". End of story. Look at the history. Look at our current situation. You're infatuated with the draft because you maybe watched or followed someone since high school and think they can just step in. The NBA is filled with failed hoop dreams like that. It doesn't take planning, it takes seizing the opportunity and like I said....go big or go home. Remember the last time we "planned" and used "forward thinking"? Yeah, it was to create imaginary cap space in the future which I said wouldn't do jack shit because we wouldn't know the market. What ever became of that all? Yeah, all crap. You make big moves with immediate impact if you want to win. Time and time again this mantra has shown to be one that has produced winners not only in the NBA but in life. {Poasted via palm pilot}
I never said not to go after Deron Williams, I said just to realize that chase for what it is...a pipedream.... There will be a very good player sitting there at #6...better than what POR could get by trading the pick in all likelyhood... You and others keep championing this foolish notion about trading the picks for an established player...you are delusional if you think that POR is going to get some top tier NBA player for that pick...Yeah maybe some player who WAS a top tier player but is now running on borrowed time, but a player in his prime, who is among the elite in the NBA? Not going to happen...I'll believe it when I see it...and I cannot recall having seen it 30+ years of Blazers' fandom So what will end up happening, if POR mgmt is that stupid, is that they will trade the picks for mid tier players who don't really offer jack shit in terms of significant improvement...ie more years of 1st round and outs...and in a few years you'll look back and see some of these players lighting it up and wish the team would have kept the pick.... EVERY avenue is a gamble..and the odds are almost ALWAYS stacked against you...Yet the odds of finding a key core player at #6 in this years' draft are better than a fool's hope of signing such an impact player as a FA or trading the pick for one.... D-Will isn't coming here.... Niether is Rondo... and any of the names being thrown out there (Lowry, Gortat, Iguodala,Evans) hardly inspire visions of a championship roster....Talk about delusions of grandeur.... You would have the team trade those picks for such players or I should say END up trading for such players, when your "Go big or go home" (ie Let's go get this teams best player") falls flat on its face...and you end up forced to scramble with Option B or Option C (Hello Raymond Felton!) Need I remind you what happened the last time POR had some significant cap space? They chased Paul Millsap and were rebuffed, they chased Hedo Turkoglu and were left on the altar...They chased David Lee and were turned down and then they ended up using good chunk of that space on Andre Miller....I like Andre Miller, but he isn't one of those "go big or go home" type of players that was going to carry POR to the championship now was he? And this year looks to be setting up no different...Chasing big dreams and settling by overpaying mid tier prospects (or WORSE, trading picks for them)....I think I have seen this sorry act by POR mgmt before... I'd rather take the risk in the draft, have a player who is young and cost controlled.....Go that route and if you do happen to get D-Will by some miracle then your roster is stronger for it...
I would rather reload than rebuild, watching these playoffs without the Blazers is too painful. Boston was able to go from bottom dwellers to champions in just one offseason, so it's possible for us to do the same. Not saying it'll happen, I'm just saying anything is possible.
Like I repeatedly stated, history shows a very poor chance of #6 being a serviceable player. Like I said, 20% chance. I'm not saying trade the pick, but you are severely overvaluing, it should be packaged and if you're going to pick, you need to trade to get into the top 3 by packaging both (with a player possibly). We're not even guaranteed to have that pick at all. Like I said, you're putting your faith in the bounce of a ping pong ball. And a mid-tier player, as history has shown, is going to be better than what the #6 or #11 pick becomes. You probably don't recall but I was a HUGE opponent of the cap space plan. My reasoning was simple, that cap space being cleared out was imginary. There was no knowing the current market of free agents at that time, and by the time it came, there was nothing to build on. Paul Milsap was a poison pill offer. Hedo was not the target they were looking for. Portland sat on the sidelines and REFUSED to trade quite possibly the most valuable trade asset in NBA history in RLEC (Raef LaFrentz Ending Contract) because it was so obsessed with cap space it didn't want to have anything less than the max money. However, like I stated, you have to seize the moments quickly and planning for the future really isn't planning. Taking the risk in the draft only works generally for top 3 picks. You need to get those or stop holding on to the notion that you're going to beat the market when it comes to making the miracle selections that DON'T end up as journeymen in the league.
Its not only possible, but its GENERALLY how NBA champions are made. Very quickly with big bold moves. Either that or a top 3 pick (even that generally takes a few years to blossom).
And it seems like what you prefer is a team that you can lie to yourself with, and we can all jerk ourselves off for the next 4 years about the amazing potential and unknown of someone, and how our youngster will almost certainly hit his full potential and then some. Because it seems like when I have seen these fans happiest, that is what we had. A super young team with unproven talent that the fans could tell themselves would undoubtedly hit their full potential.
Which one? A healthy one or none? If we are looking at it the way we looked at it before he was drafted. Unknowing. Of course, I would sell my soul. So would 29 other general managers.
BTW. If Davis had that outlook. It would take a lot more than LA and and a number one to acquire him.
Paul Pierce was drafted in 1998. Celtics won the title 10 years later. Dirk was drafted in 1998. Mavs won the title 12 years later. Building through the draft is a crap shoot. Even if you pick a really good player, you could suck ass for years before you win a title, ala Boston after drafting Pierce. What if you give up LA and a pick to draft a sure fire, can't miss guy at #1...like Greg Oden? Or, you pick a Greg with #1 and find a jewel with the #6, like Brandon Roy? There are NO guarantees, except that you will be bad for a long time with a complete rebuild. It might eventually turn into a title, or it might turn out the last time the Blazers built through the draft, getting LA, GO and BR, which is about as good as it gets via drafting. That didn't work out so great in the end. Maybe I'm a shitty fan, but I don't want to watch the Blazers play the ping-pong balls for 5-10 years. I'd rather re-tool, keep getting to the playoffs, keep making moves (draft, trades and FA) to improve and hope that things click. Go Blazers
On that note, there are no "guarantees" with anything. We could go the retool route and "suck ass" for years as well. The Blazers have enough resources to make this a quick a rebuild. They have cap room. They have player-assets. They have draft picks. They have Paul Allen's cash. The real question is, Will LA lead you anywhere. Is he the guy? My answer to that question is an emphatic no. If I knew, Davis was a Howard. I would take LA and move him for that top pick. If the team holding the number one needed another pick. I'd give it to them. Davis, would be your cornerstone. You still have 20 mil in cap room. Your player-assets and another another first round draft pick....And Allen's cash. This would be a two-three year project at the most. The 'retool' is going to take just as long.
I get your point. But, with Dirk and Pierce, it was more like 10 years to build a champion team around them. No way to know if your scenario would be a 3-4 year project. With a re-tool, we would at least be in the playoffs, much/if not most of the time. The re-tool might NEVER result in a title. The re-build also might never get us to the promised land. I'd rather watch hoops that is at least entertaining while I wait to see if the team develops into a contender. I'm not trying to pick shit with you RHR. Just pointing out that building through the draft is what got us where we are today. And that building through the draft can take a LONG time, as it did for two of the teams being held up as teams that won a title by building through the draft. As (I think is was) tlong said, we need to get lucky if we are ever going to get to the promised land. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, given how crappy the team's luck has been for the last 10 years. Go Blazers
I know you're not causing probs. There is no guarantee the retool will work. First of all, I think to make it an official retool, you have to land Deron Williams and Roy Hibbert. Dragic is fools gold, IMO. And if you can maximize the value of your two picks and get something similar if not equal to Roy and Rudy Gay out of it. I think you're set. But luck is involved there as well. And the last time I checked, the likliehood of us acquiring Williams and Hibbert is small. Williams has something fairly larger on his mind, market wise. And I think Indiana will match any offer on the table for Hibbert. They would be stupid not too. And the picks will prob be closer to the equalization of maybe a Gay and Patrick O'Bryant. Using the 2006 Draft as an example here.
I might be the only one here, but I'd be happy with a first round and out next year. Better than this year... barfo - posted from my TRS80 using a 300 baud modem -
Trade #6 and a player to move up to #4 or better. Bulls failed to trade Donyell Marshall and #7 for #4, who turned out to be Wade. Bulls gambled he'd fall to them at 7. #7 gets you a Hinrich or Deng. #9 gets you Noah. #3 gets you Ben Gordon. Just saying'...
I am looking through on DX at their RSCI(Recruiting Services Consensus Index). It pools together a few different recruiting sites, as opposed to JUST using Rivals for top 10 HS guys. It goes back to 1998, with varying services added and dropped out through the years. Still, it gives a broad view across different sites of the top HS guys for each year. 1998: 1.Al Harrington 2.Rashard Lewis 3.Korleone Young 4.Dan Gadzuric 5.Stromile Swift 6.Ronald Curry 7.Jaron Rush 8.Joel Przybilla 9.Quentin Richardson 10.Jason Capel 1999: 1.Donnell Harvey 2.Keith Bogans 3.Dermarr Johnson 4.Jay Williams 5.Joe Forte 6.Marvin Stone 7.Lavell Blanchard 8.Brett Nelson 9.Carlos Boozer 10.Jonathan Bender 2000: 1.Zach Randolph 2.Eddie Griffin 3.Darius Miles 4.Gerald Wallace 5.Jason Parker 6.Marcus Taylor 7.Deshawn Stevenson 8.Chris Duhon 9.Caron Butler 10.Mario Austin 2001: 1.Eddy Curry 2.Kevin Tolbert 3.Dajuan Wagner 4.Tyson Chandler 5.Ousmane Cisse 6.Kwame Brown 7.Julius Hodge 8.Desagana Diop 9.Rick Rickert 10.David Lee 2002: 1.Amare Stoudamire 2.Carmelo Anthony 3.Raymond Felton 4.Rashard Mccants 5.Lenny Cooke 6.Chris Bosh 7.Jason Fraser 8.Paul Davis 9.Shelden Williams 10.Sean May 2003: 1.Lebron James 2.Luol Deng 3.Shannon Brown 4.Ndubi Ebi 5.Charlie Villanueva 6.Kendrick Perkins 7.James Lang 8.Chris Paul 9.David Padgett 10.Brian Butch 2004: 1.Dwight Howard 2.Shaun Livingston 3.Al Jefferson 4.Josh Smith 5.Rudy Gay 6.Sebastian Telfair 7.Marvin Williams 8.JR Smith 9.Robert Swift 10.Malik Hairston 2005: 1.Gerald Green 2.Josh McRoberts 3.Monta Ellis 4.Andray Blatche 5.Martell Webster 6.Tyler Hansborough 7.Lou Williams 8.Julian Wright 9.Richard Hendrix 10.Mario Chalmers 2006: 1.Greg Oden 2.Kevin Durant 3.Brandan Wright 4.Spencer Hawes 5.Ty Lawson 6.Thaddeus Young 7.Chase Budinger 8.Wayne Ellington 9.Brook Lopez 10.Paul Harris 2007: 1.OJ Mayo 2.Kevin Love 3.Eric Gordon 4.Michael Beasley 5.Derrick Rose 6.Kyle Singler 7.Bill Walker 8.Jerryd Bayless 9.Donte Green 10.JJ Hickson 2008: 1.Brandon jennings 2.Jrue Holiday 3.Tyreke Evans 4.Samardo Samuels 5.Demar Derozan 6.Greg Monroe 7.Al-Farouq Aminu 8.BJ Mullens 9.Devin Ebanks 10.Ed Davis 2009: 1.Derrick Favors 2.John Wall 3.Demarcus Cousins 4.John Henson 5.Avery Bradley 6.Xavier Henry 7.Lance Stephenson 8.Renardo Sidney 9.Kenny Boynton 10.Abdul Gaddy 2010: 1.Harrison Barnes 2.Jared Sullinger 3.Kyrie Irving 4.Josh Selby 5.Brandon Knight 6.Tobias Harris 7.Perry Jones 8.Enes Kanter 9.Will Barton 10.Terrence Jones 2011: 1.Anthony Davis 2.Austin Rivers 3.Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 4.Bradley Beal 5.Quincy Miller 6.James McAdoo 7.Marquis Teague 8.Adonis Thomas 9.LeBryan Nash 10.Myck Kabongo
Some notable NON Top 10 ranked players that went in the lottery. Blake Griffin Lamarcus Aldridge Deron Williams James Harden Russel Westbrook Dwyane Wade Brandon Roy Andre Iguodola Joakim Noah Joe Johnson Andrew Bynum
