I thought we played memphis only 3 times Edit: I assumed since they weren't in our division, but I forgot that you play another in your conference 4 times in alternating years. It would have been nice if that division was the pacific. Then again that would mean we would have played GS and Clippers one more time.
I'm picking the Blazers to win this series. I'd love to see us win it in 6 (as I have tickets to Game 6), but even if it goes back to MEM for Game 7, I have us winning this series. Here's why I think we win: 1) Regular season means NOTHING. Last year, the Rockets owned us during the regular season and we owned the Spurs. We all know how that turned out. The post season is a TOTALLY different animal. You focus on one team and only one team for over two weeks. The relaxed schedule and singular opponent gives your coaching staff plenty time to make adjustments between games. It also gives your older guys and injured players extra days off between games to recuperate. I think both of those factors favor the Blazers (details below). 2) Our stars are better than their stars. Sure, Marc Gasol is a great NBA center and Mike Conely has lived up to his #4 draft position, but Aldridge and Lillard are both multiple time all-stars. Of course, last year HOU's stars were better than our stars, and that was one of the main reasons most "experts" picked the Rockets to beat us in round 1. So, perhaps this isn't a huge advantage, or even an advantage at all, but the fact is, our two best players are better than their two best players and are both coming off historic performances vs. HOU in round 1 last year. So, slight edge (IMHO) Blazers. 3) Even with Wesley Matthews out, we have more depth than the Grizzlies. With the addition of Chris Kaman, the emergence of Meyers Leonard and the return to health of Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland, we have FIVE legitimate big men we can throw at MEM's duo of Randolph and Gasol. MEM only has 3 players on their roster taller than 6'9". We have 5, and all 5 have proven this year to be solid NBA big men. We have both more depth and more versatility up front than MEM. Kosta Koufos and Jon Leuer are decent back up bigs, but both are very limited. Chris Kaman and Meyers Leonard are both way more gifted offensively than any of the MEM back up bigs, and Joel Freeland may be our best post defender. With so many combinations of solid big men, we can go with some really big lineups and also make offensive/defensive substitutions late in games. We did not have this luxury during the regular season with Lopez, Aldridge, Kaman and Freeland all missing time against the Grizzlies. At the guard positions/wing positions, even with Wes out, we have more depth. Tony Allen and Beno Udrih are pretty much their bench (assuming they start Jeff Green and bring Allen off the bench). Allen has a reputation as a great defender, but has been slowed by age and injuries and is nothing special on the offensive end. Udrih is a solid back up, but he's kind of the opposite of Tony Allen, pretty decent offensively, but horrible defensively. Yeah, I know they have Vince Carter, but he is a shell of the player he was in DAL, who was a shell of the player he was in NJN, who was a shell of the player he was in TOR. Age has finally caught up with the Vince. He's now All (Old) Man, None Amazing. Just look at his shooting percentages this year. Yuck!!! And Nick Calathes is an even worse shooter (almost the exact same career and season FT% as Dwight Howard, from a "shooting" guard). Yes, we miss Wes terribly, but in this regard, MEM is a better match up for us than HOU would have been. We would have REALLY missed Wesley's defense on James Harden - Courtney Lee, not so much. I'm sure Afflalo, or C.J. can handle Lee just fine. Lee is a very good 3-point shooter, but not so good off the dribble. So, get up in his face out to the 3-point line and force him to pass or put the ball on the floor. Even if we don't get the Orlando version of Aron Afflalo, or even if Afflalo misses a couple games, our starting back court of Lillard and Afflalo or McCollum is better offensively than Conley/Lee. Assuming Afflalo starts, C.J., is better than any guard they can bring off the bench, and while Blake scores less than Beno Udrih, he's a better distributor and better defender. 4) The relaxed schedule favors the Blazers. I know the extra days off gives both teams extra rest and healing time for injured players, but I think this actually favors the Blazers quite a lot. First, we have more guys that are banged up and could use a few more days to heal. Aldridge, Batum, Afflalo, McCollum and Kaman are all dinged up, where as MEM only has Allen and Conley suffering from injuries. Plus, I think the extra rest and more relaxed schedule REALLY helps two key Blazer. First, Nic Batum really seems to benefit from some added time off. He logs more miles running around the court than any player in the NBA, and over the course of an 82-game schedule, Nic always seems to have some nagging injury that limits his performance. But, remember how great he played for a week or two after the all-star break? He was totally energized and shooting with confidence. He single-handedly took over the 4th quarter and OT of that improbable win against the Clippers. Also, look at his playoff performance last year. In general, most players, especially non-stars, see their scoring average go down in the post season due to a combination of factors. First, the games are lower scoring, in general, in the play offs. So, fewer points to be had over all. Second, teams rely more heavily on their stars in to carry them in the post season. Makes sense, when every game is important, you want the ball in the hands of your best players. Just look at the way the Blazers road Aldridge and Lillard against HOU last year. So less scoring, in general, and less opportunities for non-stars, means most players see their scoring average decline compared to the regular season. Not so for Nic. He actually saw his scoring average increase against both HOU and SAS in the playoffs last year. As our 4th scoring option, he actually had two 20+ point games in both of those series. That's the Nic we need to see against MEM. People bitch about Batum's lack of consistency, but he does play much better when healthy and well rested. Limited travel and 2 or 3 games a week with multiple days off between games is tailor made for seeing Good, or hopefully even Great Nic in this series. If we do, it will be a HUGE advantage for POR. Likewise, Chris Kaman is another player that absolutely thrives when his minutes are kept down and he's well rested. Everyone remembers how great Kaman was early in the season. Then Rolo and also Freeland went down and suddenly Kaman was starting and playing 30+ MPG. That's absolutely NOT a good role for him at this stage in his career. Once Lopez and Freeland were both back and Kaman was back to playing 16 - 18 MPG, we saw a dramatic resurgence in his productivity. Having four other healthy bigs and a greatly relaxed schedule, is the perfect scenario to see Chris Kaman at his most productive. I expect to see multiple 12 - 14 point, 8 - 9 rebound games in less than 20 minutes from Kaman in this series. I really do think Chris Kaman will be huge for us in this series (more below). 5) Coaching. Dave Joerger is a good coach. This isn't the Terry Stotts vs. Kevin Mchale bloodbath we saw last year. Nor is it the Anyone with a Pulse vs. Nate McMillan or Mo Cheeks mismatches we grew accustomed to in the past. Still, I give the edge to Terry Stotts. Stotts has shown he's great at making adjustments during the game and during a series. I know our defense has sucked lately, but go back to early in the season when we had a healthy roster, we were top 5 in defensive efficiency. Sure we will miss Wes, but as I said, it's not like we need someone to shut down James Harden in this series. Afflalo and C.J. can handle Courtney Lee, Nick Calathes and what's left of Vince Carter, just fine. With 5 healthy bigs and the emergence of C.J. McCollum, Stotts has more weapons to work with than Joerger, and I look for him to make the necessary adjustments to take advantage of those options. This is one area where we need Nic Batum and Chris Kaman to step up. In the last regular season game between MEM and OKC, Joerger put Jeff Green on Russell Westbrook in the 4th quarter and Green completely shut him down. Of course, Westbrook tends to go into hero mode in the quarter, force up stupid shots and make all kinds of bad decisions and unforced turnovers, but we can't let Joerger put Green on Lillard and get away with it - the way Nate McMillan let Alvin Gentry get away with putting Grant Hill on Andre Miller and Steve Nash on Nic Batum all those years ago. I do expect to see Nic guarding Conley late in games, but if we see the same match up on the other end, we need to see Nic with the ball in his hands initiating the offense, passing unencumbered into the post over the much shorter Conley, shooting over him (with confidence) and posting him up. This is where we have an advantage over MEM. Nic has been our secondary ball handler for the past two seasons. When other teams clamp down in Lillard, we run the offense through Nic. Jeff Green is a good scorer, but he's NOT the distributor Nic is. And, we won't put Lillard on Green. If Nic is on Conley, we'll have Afflalo on Green and Dame on Lee. MEM is a good defensive team. Gasol, Tony Allen and Mike Conley are all very good defenders, but they have a weakness and one we are well suited to exploit. His name is Zach Randolph. Zach has never been a good defender and LaMarcus Aldridge should flat out own him the way he owned Terrence Jones last year. Aldridge is so much longer and more athletic than Zach, he should be able to just shoot over him at will. So, like McHale with Dwight Howard and Omar Asik last year, I look for Joerger to put Marc Gasol on Aldridge for long stretches. This is where Chris Kaman becomes a huge asset. Whenever MEM puts Gasol on Aldridge, I'd love to see Stotts bring Kaman in to post up Zach on the low blocks. Use Aldridge to draw Gasol out of the paint and let Kaman abuse ZBo down low. Kaman is a 7-footer with great low post moves. There is no way Zach can guard him 1-on-1. If Joerger decides to counter adjust by going big with Koufos on Kaman/Lopez when Gasol is on Aldridge, we win that one too as they give up a ton of scoring and offensive rebounding with Zach out of the game. Exploiting Zach Randolph on the defensive end of the court is a big advantage for the Blazer and why the off season addition of Chris Kaman will pay off big for us. OK, that's why I think we'll win this series. Regular season and "experts" be damned (for the second year in a row). I'd love to see us win it in 6, at home, but even if it goes back to MEM for Game 7, I have confidence the Blazers will prevail. BNM
BFD. What's happened between other teams in the past has no impact on what happens between the Blazers and Grizzlies in the present. Somebody has to be first. No 8 seed had ever beaten a 1 seed until the Nuggets beat the Sonics, and until last year, no player had ever scored 40+ points in back-to-back games on the road to start a playoff series. BNM
I didn't see it posted anywhere so: Afflalo officially listed as doubtful for Game 1. McCollum probable Alonzo Gee questionable but expects to be ready Batum should be fine. Kaman probable, expected to be available. Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Jeff Green all questionable but all three expected to play in game 1.
This Blazers team has pretty good playoff experience. I'd expect pretty much everyone on this roster to know what the playoffs are like at this point. Batum has been pretty shitty all year long, but I would be amazed if he doesn't come ready to play tomorrow. Batum has always been one of those players that seems to play best on a bigger stage. Here's to hoping we come out clicking tomorrow. Nobody can stand in our way if we are red hot n rollin.
Interesting article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-trail-blazers-can-finally-beat-the-grizzles/
I've also got a sneaky feeling that Afflalo ends up being a game time decision and might end up coming off the bench tomorrow. Both teams seem to be downplaying their injuries. I don't for a second buy any of this "I'll only play if im feeling 100%" BS from the Grizzlies. Edit: probably overly optimistic about AA tomorrow, but you can tell he wants to get out there asap.
Really great post. With that said, I do think you're underselling and underestimating the Memphis wings, especially considering how well they have played against us this year. Courtney Lee averaged over 16 points per game on 57% shooting from the field, including an amazing 67% from downtown in three games against the Trail Blazers this year. You were spot on in regards to Vince Carter. The future Hall of Famer put up averages of 3.3 points, on 22% shooting, including 12% from distance, 1.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists. Vince played in three of the four matchups against the Blazers and only played about 12.5 minutes per night in those contests. While Vince is still capable of catching fire, he is one player I could live with shooting (contested, please no open shots unless it comes from doubling). Jeff Green, to me, is the X-Factor in this series. He's the one element Memphis teams in the past just have not had: a scorer on the wing to compliment Gasol and Randolph down low. He played the Trail Blazers four times this year, three as a member of the Grizzlies and the other in Celtic green. Needless to say, he shot the shit out of the basketball when he saw Portland on the schedule. Here are his box scores (as a member of Memphis) versus Portland: January 17, 2015 - Trail Blazers 98, Grizzlies 102 30 minutes, 17 points, 6-14 FG, 3-5 3PT, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal - Off the benchFebruary 22, 2015 - Trail Blazers 92, Memphis 98 25 minutes, 12 points, 6-9 FG, 0-2 3PT, 5 rebounds, 1 steal - StarterMarch 21, 2015 - Trail Blazers 86, Grizzlies 97 40 minutes, 23 points, 8-16 FG, 5-7 3PT, 9 rebounds - Starter Gasol and Randolph will get theirs and likely Conley as well, but, aside from pick and roll defense, the deciding factor will be the play of Jeff Green. If he plays in the postseason like he did against Portland in the regular season, I do not like our chances. Tony Allen's numbers against the Trail Blazers this year were better than I originally thought just basing off of memory. The 6-4 guard put up 6.8 points and 6.3 rebounds and like all Memphis wings, shot very well versus Portland - 52% from the floor and a surprising 50% from 3 (small sample size 2-4). While those numbers won't overwhelm anyone, Allen's greatest attribute to the Grizzlies are the intangibles he brings to the table: heart, hustle, grit, grind. He is The Grindfather, playing at the Grindhouse. He is the poster child for Memphis Grizzlies basketball over the past four seasons. There's not question he is to the Grizzlies as Wesley Matthews is to the Trail Blazers. Beno Udrih would be an All-Star if he played the Trail Blazers every night. Hyperbole? Most definitely. But we all remember his 17-point performance, which included an absurd 7-7 shooting from the field. Beno will continue to be a thorn in our side if we don't change the way we defend the pick and roll. If he gets uncontested 15-ft. looks all night, he'll make us pay. Nick Calathes was a non-factor in three games against Portland: 2.3 points, on 30% shooting, 1.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 16.2 minutes per game. This series will come down to Afflalo, Batum, Crabbe, Gee, and McCollum vs. Allen, Calathes, Carter, Green, Lee and Udrih. Without Matthews, it's a pretty even matchup. Do we get 2014 playoffs Batum? Can McCollum's late-season momentum transfer over into the postseason? How effective will Afflalo be considering he's coming off a shoulder strain? How will Crabbe fare in his first true postseason? Will Lee, Green, and Udrih continue their torrid shooting against the Blazers? Given his defensive reputation, how will Gee impact the series on that end of the court? Could he see time on Udrih or Conley? So many questions, and frankly, there's only one way to find out the answer.
I'm pumped. I'm taking two days off from work and flying home on Friday from Chicago just so I can see games 3 and 4 in person. I don't really care if we lose the series, I just want to see The Blazers play some playoff ball.
