'Potential'

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by Bobcats, Aug 8, 2005.

  1. Bobcats

    Bobcats JBB JustBBall Member

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    Every draft year, there's a kid who has an insane amount of 'potential'. These high schoolers/under 20 foreign players/19 year old freshman's get drafted higher than the college experienced players. I'm wondering, how do scouts judge potential? Why do the Wayne Simiens/Jameer Nelsons who put up staggering numbers in college slip, while the Robert Swifts/Martell Websters get picked in the lottery? Is it because they are younger or more athletic? I've always wondered about this.
     
  2. Mr. J

    Mr. J Triple Up

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    Martell Webster isn't in the league of Rob Swift. He dominated prep school, did well in workouts and is ready to make an impact along with his potential. There's a reason why he went 5th in the draft. The players you mentioned such as Simien and Nelson are all undersized and in the world of the NBA, size really does matter. If Simien was a 7-footer, he would have been in the lottery; maybe even #1. Same thing a player like Ike Diogu who could have gone just as far Simien if he was two or three inches taller. And we all know Nate Robinson would have been in the lottery if he was about 6'3".
     
  3. Martin

    Martin Back from retirement

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    You actually have to see it yourself.It's hard to explain.
    I only know that you have to see the player more than 2 times in 4 months to draft him and make sure he's not a bust.I know a kid who had heaps of potential 2 years ago.
    Now it's gone,you don't see the flare in his game.The moves aren't as nice as before,they are stuck somewhere.His game hasn't moved on.It's the same way with scouts,they look at the player for a year at most.See that he's young and has potential,they are going to draft him and it all just doesn't develop.
     
  4. Bobcats

    Bobcats JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting MrJ:</div><div class="quote_post">Martell Webster isn't in the league of Rob Swift. He dominated prep school, did well in workouts and is ready to make an impact along with his potential. There's a reason why he went 5th in the draft. The players you mentioned such as Simien and Nelson are all undersized and in the world of the NBA, size really does matter. If Simien was a 7-footer, he would have been in the lottery; maybe even #1. Same thing a player like Ike Diogu who could have gone just as far Simien if he was two or three inches taller. And we all know Nate Robinson would have been in the lottery if he was about 6'3".</div>

    You just proved my point. Why does Robert Swift get drafted ahead players like Delonte West and Tony Allen? Same with Dorell Wright. Simien and Nelson were just examples, but my point is, why do some of the college experienced players get drafted below the high schoolers/freshmans? Before the draft got screwed up, Gerald Green was projected to go top 3-10. What made Gerald Green, a more intriguinging prospect, than say Joey Graham?
     
  5. Midnight Green

    Midnight Green NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    No NBA team wants to be considered that team that passed up on Kobe, Garnett, Stoudamire, Tracy Mcgrady, etc. That is why in a lot of cases GM?s draft on potential over talent. The TrailBlazers are a prime example of this last season. Passing on Jameer Nelson to draft the unproven, and risky pick with Sebastian Telfair though I could not disagree more with them with that move they felt the ?potential? that he showed them in the Chicago camp, and private work outs. For some reason made him a better choice over a NCAA player of the year who led his team to an undefeated regular season record. I find a lot of times that GM?s have seen what has happened in the past with the Garnett?s and Kobe?s and are health bent on not letting that happen to them so often times they try to hard to find potential in areas/players that do not have it.

    Teams like the 76ers this year drafting Louis Williams over Ryan Gomes. They felt that no one they drafted with that pick could come in, and contribute to them immensely so they took a player with ?potential? to be a great scorer in the future. Over a proven guy who although has not shown the brilliance to be a NAB superstar could very well become one of the better role players in the league. I think the new rule not allowing high school players to enter the draft will really help the NBA. It will allow them a extra year to see what these guys can do while at the same time not forcing them to select a player completely based on potential. They will have a little more insight to a guy that they have seen play in college even if it is just one season then they would on a high school player.

    You mentioned Simien?s slip in the draft being attributed to the fact a couple players were drafted on potential. However, at the same time he had a ton of health issues when he played in college, and a lot of teams questioned his durability that is why he slipped in my opinion.
     
  6. Bobcats

    Bobcats JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">No NBA team wants to be considered that team that passed up on Kobe, Garnett, Stoudamire, Tracy Mcgrady, etc. That is why in a lot of cases GM?s draft on potential over talent. The TrailBlazers are a prime example of this last season. Passing on Jameer Nelson to draft the unproven, and risky pick with Sebastian Telfair though I could not disagree more with them with that move they felt the ?potential? that he showed them in the Chicago camp, and private work outs. For some reason made him a better choice over a NCAA player of the year who led his team to an undefeated regular season record. I find a lot of times that GM?s have seen what has happened in the past with the Garnett?s and Kobe?s and are health bent on not letting that happen to them so often times they try to hard to find potential in areas/players that do not have it.</div>

    Good point, but they also have to consider, do they want to be remembered for not taking players like Carmelo Anthony (before anyone brings up the fact he was a freshman, he was an exception), Caron Butler, and Richard Hamilton, and instead ending up with someone like Qyntel Woods, Jonathon Bender, Kwame Brown, Darko (it's early, but I don't believe he'll amount to anything worthy of #2)?

    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Teams like the 76ers this year drafting Louis Williams over Ryan Gomes. They felt that no one they drafted with that pick could come in, and contribute to them immensely so they took a player with ?potential? to be a great scorer in the future. Over a proven guy who although has not shown the brilliance to be a NAB superstar could very well become one of the better role players in the league. I think the new rule not allowing high school players to enter the draft will really help the NBA. It will allow them a extra year to see what these guys can do while at the same time not forcing them to select a player completely based on potential. They will have a little more insight to a guy that they have seen play in college even if it is just one season then they would on a high school player.</div>

    That's different, Philly had the 45th pick in the draft, and if I was Billy King, I probably would've done the same thing. I was talking about lottery and first round picks.

    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">You mentioned Simien?s slip in the draft being attributed to the fact a couple players were drafted on potential. However, at the same time he had a ton of health issues when he played in college, and a lot of teams questioned his durability that is why he slipped in my opinion.</div>

    As I said before, that was just an example. I could name more, but I'm just trying to get my point across.
     
  7. odde23

    odde23 JBB Not A JustBBall Member

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    To answer you question on Robert Swift. I have no earthly idea why they drafted him. I think that boston wanted Al Jefferson and made it public that Swift was thier guy so that Seattle would bite. I seem to remember that Swift didn't even work-out for seattle pre draft. I think Danny ainge pulled a fast one on us personally. I don't think Swift will ever amount to more than a Calvin Booth at best, and a Jim McIllvain at worst. HOWEVER, I could be way off, I am NOT a scout, and like they say in the NBA, "You can't teach hieght."
     
  8. Voodoo Child

    Voodoo Child Can I Kick It?

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Good point, but they also have to consider, do they want to be remembered for not taking players like Carmelo Anthony (before anyone brings up the fact he was a freshman, he was an exception), Caron Butler, and Richard Hamilton, and instead ending up with someone like Qyntel Woods, Jonathon Bender, Kwame Brown, Darko (it's early, but I don't believe he'll amount to anything worthy of #2)?</div>

    If the scouts are good enough, they'll be able to draft the right High School, European, or JuCo players. What you have to look for is heart and maturity. What set Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Rashard Lewis apart from Kwame Brown, DaSagna Diop, and Eddy Curry out of High School? It's the heart, the maturity, and the determination. You have to look for players who not only have the physical tools and the raw talent to be an impact player, but you also have to look for a player with a great work ethic.

    As for what sets apart a guy like Wayne Simien and a guy like Robert Swift, it's usually the physical tools. You're talking about a four or five inch height difference. Scouts see a player like Swift who is young, has room to grow, and they draft him based on the assumption that he has the tools to be molded into a better player than an undersized, yet more developed player like Simien.
     

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