Pre-camp power rankings

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by illmatic99, Sep 23, 2016.

  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    31,952
    Likes Received:
    40,229
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You guys want to do me a favor and get in on the comments section on the post there? The Utah supporters in there are insufferable.
     
  2. Blazer4ever

    Blazer4ever Finding a Way BANNED

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    2,920
    Likes Received:
    726
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Agricolture
    Location:
    Israel
    It's also Rodney Hood who's gonna be a star, Dante Exum coming back and already some talented young players in Favors and Gobbert. I think they'd be good but we are better
     
  3. OSUBlazerfan

    OSUBlazerfan Writing Team

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    6,906
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I know Utah is getting way to much hype, and I do believe the blazers are better. But i was at the last Utah game last year, and they certainly pass the eye test.
     
  4. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    31,952
    Likes Received:
    40,229
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There's something significant to the concept of "fit" though. They seem to have lots of interesting pieces, but we have no evidence that their nice pieces actually fit together in such a way as to lead to sustained winning.
     
    dviss1 likes this.
  5. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    5,503
    Likes Received:
    3,612
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Surely, last year's injuries to their key players have to be factored in?

    I tend to think the national media has this one right. Napier is unlikely to have any impact. Turner and Ezeli are major question marks, in my opinion. One is a non-PG ball handler with limited offense, the other has equally limited offense but can never stay healthy. Both are solid defenders, but will they be able to contribute enough there to stay on the floor? I'd say it's 50/50.

    As for retaining our most important free agents, that's a mixed blessing. We didn't lose talent like the summer prior, but we didn't resolve the issue of redundancies at every position. Dame and CJ, Crabbe and Harkless (remove Henderson, insert Turner), Harkless and Aminu, Plumlee and Davis. It's nice to have depth, but with two of every position without clear cut starter talent, I feel we're destined to be pretty good but not great. But, we spent money this summer like the team is destined for greatness.
     
  6. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah, when is that going to happen? In 2016-17? Because that's what these preseason predictions are talking about. Sure, he's just entering his 3rd season, like C.J. was last year, but I don't see him breaking out like C.J. did. Hood played 3600 minutes in his first two seasons. C.J. played 1450. Hood made mild improvements from season 1 to season 2. C.J. has shown significant improvement every year he's been in the league. I doubt Hood will ever be a star, but if he is someday, I don't see that day being the 2016-17 season.

    You say that like it's a good thing. Exum was spectacularly horrible, downright historically bad, his rookie season. He wasn't just the worst player to start at least half of his team's games, by a wide margin, he was also the worst player in the league to play at least 1000 minutes, also by a wide margin. I get that he was very young and making the transition to starting NBA point guard is tough for young players. But here's the thing, he'll also be very young this season - and he's coming back from a serious injury. Like Hood, he has great size for his position, and may eventually develop into a star player, but I don't see that happening in 2016-17. In fact, I see any minutes Exum plays in 2016-17 as a net negative THIS YEAR. Any minutes he gets this season will be for development purposes, as a long term investment in the future, not for immediate help.

    Favors is damn solid, He will be again this year, like he was last year (when UTA won 40 games) and like he was the year before (when UTA won 38 games). He'll get his 18/9, like he did last year and the year before. And, like I said, that's damn solid performance from the PF position. But, going into his 7th season in the league, with over 11,000 minutes of playing time under his belt, I don't see where any improvement comes from that takes UTA from lottery to HCA in the West. Favors will be just as good as he has been, but I don't see him improving enough to make a huge difference in their record. This isn't a Jermaine O'Neal situation where Favors is suddenly going to breakout. Favors is what he is, which is damn good, but he played more minutes his rookie year than Jermaine did his first three seasons combined. Very good player who has reached his ceiling, or pretty close to it.

    Gobert also is what he is, at this point. He's a great rim protector with a very limited offensive game. He actually regressed a bit in 2015-2016 (his per-36 numbers and shooting percentages were all down across the board), but that can probably be blamed on his injuries. If healthy, he should return to his 2014-15 form, when UTA won 38 games. Again, I'm not seeing any huge improvement here that would take this team from lottery to HCA.

    And, maybe that's the problem in general. When was the last time a UTA player had a breakout season. Who was the last UTA player to make an all star team? They've had quite a few lottery picks the last several years, both their own and ones acquired via trade. How many of those lottery picks have justified their draft position? It seems like they are more likely to draft someone that doesn't pan out and they give up on before their rookie contracts up than they are to draft a future all star. Gordon Hayward seems to be their only lottery pick in the last 10 years that has developed into a solid player, and he was drafted six years ago. In the mean time, we have drafted Dame and C.J. who have both easily exceeded their draft positions. Maybe UTA doesn't draft well, or maybe they just don't have good player development personnel. In either case, their players seem to plateau at a fairly young age and don't show much future improvement. Maybe that will change in 2016-17, but if it does, it will be the first time since the Jerry Sloan era.

    And, it is this lack of development of their young players that caused UTA to bring in veterans like Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw and George Hill to try to get them to finally get back to the post season for the first time in six years.

    BNM
     
  7. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    One would think. However, I'm not sure how significant their injuries were on their won-loss record. They had 6 players that played in at least 79 games, we had 5 (bit also two more than played in 78 games). I don't consider Exum's injury significant in last year's won-loss record. He sucked terribly his rookie year and would have sucked last year, too. You don't go from historically bad to better than average in a single off season.

    So, that leaves Favors and Gobert as their significant injuries. Favors missed 20 games and Gobert 21. As solid as Favors is, their fared no better with him than without him. In fact, their record with Favors (30-32) was slightly worse than their record without him (10-10).

    Gobert was a different story. 33-28 with and 7-14 without. So, if Gobert is healthy and can return to his preinjury form, it should help UTA in 2016-17.

    BNM
     
  8. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Not that I am disagreeing with you, but I think CJ would say whooaa... ummm yes you can. Remember the trade CJ threads cause he sucks the year before last? In one year, CJ went from end of bench trade fodder to 3-4th best SG in the league.
     
  9. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    C.J. didn't go from historically bad rookie to 20 ppg game scorer in a single off season. He went from below average NBA player his rookie year to 20 ppg scorer over the course of two years.

    I think you are underestimating how bad Exum was was a rookie. He wasn't just bad, he was historically bad. In all fairness, he was a 19-year old rookie that was forced into the starting line up. The results weren't pretty. So, now he's 21, still young and lacking experience after sitting out all of last season with a torn ACL.

    The genesis for C.J.'s big leap came at the end of his second season, and culminated during the playoff series against MEM when he set a Blazers record by scoring 33 points coming off the bench in Game 5. He built on that progress during his third season when he won the starting role. He didn't go from end of the bench fodder to scoring 20ppg in one year. It was more gradual than that. He had a PER = 9.9 as a rookie, then 13.1 his second season and 17.7 his 3rd. He went from fringe rotation player, to regular rotation player to starter over the course of his three seasons in the league.

    After missing his entire second season, and never playing in the playoffs, Exum is not poised to have a C.J. type breakout season. Young players, especially young PGs, need playing time to develop. Exum got ZERO PT hast year. He enters his third season the same player he was at the end of his rookie year PLUS coming off major knee surgery.

    C.J.'s career arc:
    1st Season - Fringe rotation player, PER = 9.0
    2nd Season - Part of the regular rotation, PER = 13.1
    3rd Season - Starter, PER = 17.7

    Exum's career arc:
    1st season - historically bad starter, PER = 5.7
    2nd Season - Injured - DNP
    3rd Season - ?????, but he won't be a starter, that's why they traded a lottery pick to bring in George Hill

    So far, Exum's career trajectory looks nothing like C.J.'s. If anything it's pretty much the exact opposite.

    BNM
     
  10. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm just saying they both sucked their first year. They were both injured thier second and CJ became a star in his third. Details can be spun many ways, but the end result is CJ was not thought of as a star or even a starter his first year. 9.0 per and 5.7 Per. Not that far off.
     
    HailBlazers likes this.
  11. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My point (the part you originally quoted) was that C.J. did not go from historically bad to breakout star over the course of a single off season. First, he was never historically bad.

    Second, over the last month of his second season, he was averaging 15 ppg (after Wes went down) and scored 26, 18 and 33 coming off the bench in the final three games of the MEM series. C.J. was already on his way to becoming good prior to the off season before his breakout season.

    And yes, there is a very significant difference between PER = 5.7 and PER = 9.0 (and for the record, C.J.'s PER did not jump from 9.0 to 17.7 in a single season, it went from 9.0 to 13.1 to 17.7). Every year, there are about 15 - 20 players that play > 1000 minutes with a PER in the 9.0 range, but in the last 10 years, there have only been three players that played at least 1000 minutes and posted a PER worse than Exum's 5.7. The difference between PER = 5.7 and PER = 9.0 is the difference between historically bad and a below average role player.

    In fact, if I go back 20 years, I can't find a single player who played over 1000 minutes with a PER less than 7.0 that later became a star, or even an above average player. The closest I can find is Draymond Green, but even his improvement, was much more gradual. Similar to C.J. his PER has increased every year. He went from 7.1, to 12.7 to 16.4 to 19.3. Again no single off season jump from awful to great.

    If Exum breaks out this season, it will be unprecedented. Like I said in my first post, Exum may eventually breakout, but it's highly unlikely it happens in 2016-17.

    BNM
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  12. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Also, just one other note, C.J, was not injured his second year, at least not significantly. He missed 14 games due to injury. Exum missed the entire season.

    BNM
     
    RickyJoe likes this.
  13. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I had to stop at historically bad. sorry but how are guys in their first and second seasons..."Historically bad". Lol.

    Sorry. I love your posts but this one, and again, I'm not disagreeing, but I think the comparisons could be made based on the PER you listed from thier rookie to now. 2 years later.
     
  14. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    28,071
    Likes Received:
    10,384
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That guy who couldn't hit a shot for like the first ten games of his career was historically bad... I can't remember his name, it was like a couple of years ago. He played in the East, was touted as the next big starter for... Cleveland? Detroit? Philly? Somewhere out there. And he bombed out SO SPECTACULARLY nobody even remember who he is.
     
  15. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    When you start 41 games, play over 1800 minutes and have one of the worst seasons statistically in the history of the league, you are by definition, historically bad. That's true whether you're a rookie or a 10-year veteran. Of course, the 19-year old rookie has a lot bigger chance of improving, but that does not change the fact that Exum's rookie year was historically bad. Even if he breaks out and becomes a 15 time all star, his rookie year was, and will always remain, historically bad. It's done, it's over, it's in the history books, it was BAD.

    So, you think Exum, who missed his entire second season with a major knee injury, improved as much as C.J. did his second season, and is poised to make a similar 3rd year leap? Based on what exactly? You think he's going to go from being a PER = 5.7 player to averaging 20 ppg and being one of the three of four best players at his position, simply because he's a year older?

    I'm sorry, I think I may be totally misunderstanding what you mean by:

    "I think the comparisons could be made based on the PER you listed from thier rookie to now. 2 years later."

    Unless you actually believe Exum will jump from PER = 5.7 to anywhere near PER = 17.7.

    My whole point was to refute the notion that somehow getting Exum back will help the Jazz make the leap from lottery team to HCA n the West. I went back 20 years and couldn't find a single player that jumped from PER = 5.7 to even PER = 15.0 from one season to the next. And technically, because he missed all of last year, this will be Exum's second season. Even if you want to stretch and call his his third season, I can't even find single player who went from PER = 5.7 to PER = 15.0 from year 1 to year 3.

    If Exum does any of these things, it will be an historic accomplishment.

    BNM
     
    RickyJoe likes this.
  16. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I knew I could goad you into a couple more well informed psts. :)
     
    Wizard Mentor likes this.
  17. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,762
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Joel Freeland? Victor Claver?

    Freeland started his NBA career going 1-18. I remember feeling sorry for him his rookie year. And, its not like they were 18-foot jumpers, they were all bunnies right around the basket and he simply couldn't make ANYTHING.

    And then, whenever Claver missed a shot, which was most of the time, we'd get to hear Mike Barrett remind us for the 100th time what a GREAT shooter Claver was in practice.

    BNM
     
  18. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    28,071
    Likes Received:
    10,384
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No this was an Eastern Conference guy, who was a starter.

    EDIT: Not a starter. Anthony Bennett for Cleveland. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bennean01/gamelog/2014

    ...LOL and he had a PER of 6.9 that year. So maybe 5.7 IS historically bad! :lol:
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  19. theprunetang

    theprunetang Shaedon "Deadly Nightshade" Sharpe is HIM

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,497
    Likes Received:
    20,918
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yep. Stuckey had a really bad start a couple of seasons ago as well.
     
    BlazerCaravan likes this.
  20. theprunetang

    theprunetang Shaedon "Deadly Nightshade" Sharpe is HIM

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,497
    Likes Received:
    20,918
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Just looked it up. Rodney Stuckey started the 2012 season with 1 for 23 shooting. And given that Stuckey is really only good for volume scoring, it was pretty bad.
     

Share This Page