Check out this one.... [video=youtube;B6Lstkiexhc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Lstkiexhc"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Lstkiexhc[/video]
The Fat Lady has sung people. (a little more serious than the previous two vids) [video=youtube;4-BaAdUzT-4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-BaAdUzT-4&NR=1"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-BaAdUzT-4&NR=1[/video]
Want to see something weird? http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May21.html McCain 285 electoral votes to Obama's 242, with 11 up for grabs. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clin...Maps/May21.html Clinton 284 to McCain's 237 with 17 up for grabs. SST - what do you make of this?
You don't have to make every political discussion sound so bitter. Real clear politics has the most interesting charts, and ever changing General election numbers daily.
I'm not sounding bitter. The electoral-vote.com site is run by an expert statistician. His site was top 1000 in the world in 2004. His methodology is incredibly sound. He leans democrat, too. The two links I posted show McCain beating Obama in the electoral college according to a careful collection of all the latest state polls, including ones the webmaster pays for and also ones he gets early access to from the pollsters. The second link shows Hillary beating McCain. THAT is the interesting thing. Yeah, they do look different at Fox's site, as they have primaries results and nothing resembling how the electoral vote race stands.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm not sounding bitter. The electoral-vote.com site is run by an expert statistician. His site was top 1000 in the world in 2004. His methodology is incredibly sound. He leans democrat, too. The two links I posted show McCain beating Obama in the electoral college according to a careful collection of all the latest state polls, including ones the webmaster pays for and also ones he gets early access to from the pollsters. The second link shows Hillary beating McCain. THAT is the interesting thing. Yeah, they do look different at Fox's site, as they have primaries results and nothing resembling how the electoral vote race stands.</div> They can't both be interesting? RCP gets just about as much respect, or else Fox wouldn't just pick any random site. RCP doesn't show him losing Wisconsin, and their stats are constantly changing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ent/charts.html That's cool.
I'm still not seeing the relevance to the electoral vote. I mean, I realize the Democrats don't have a clue about what democracy in a republic means, and that the rules are whatever it takes for them to win vs. being fair. RCP has McCain up over Obama in 2 of the 3 of PA, FLA, and OH. If he wins two of those three, he's going to win the general election, regardless of what RCP's average of ridiculously varying results. You have some oddball pollsters out there with dubious methodology being included in the RCP averages. Like Quinnipiac and their near double-digit lead for one side or the other, while other polls are within a point. That out-of-whack one poll screws up the average.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm still not seeing the relevance to the electoral vote. I mean, I realize the Democrats don't have a clue about what democracy in a republic means, and that the rules are whatever it takes for them to win vs. being fair. RCP has McCain up over Obama in 2 of the 3 of PA, FLA, and OH. If he wins two of those three, he's going to win the general election, regardless of what RCP's average of ridiculously varying results. You have some oddball pollsters out there with dubious methodology being included in the RCP averages. Like Quinnipiac and their near double-digit lead for one side or the other, while other polls are within a point. That out-of-whack one poll screws up the average.</div> Ras has McCain up by one in Ohio. :/ With Obama's momentum, I don't know why I should feel bad. No incumbent party has ever been reelected in an unpopular war.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ May 21 2008, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hmm Rasmussen does have him down by one recently in Mich, it's definitely a close call.</div> RCP has the Rasmussen poll plus a 2 month old poll and a 3 month old poll. Averaged together. Really, do you think a 3 month old poll is still relevant? Was McCain even the nominee back then?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ May 21 2008, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hmm Rasmussen does have him down by one recently in Mich, it's definitely a close call.</div> RCP has the Rasmussen poll plus a 2 month old poll and a 3 month old poll. Averaged together. Really, do you think a 3 month old poll is still relevant? Was McCain even the nominee back then? </div> Hence me mentioning just Ras.
Hence electoral-vote.com, which pays attention to these kinds of things and gets as accurate a current picture of every state as possible and then how it figures into the electoral vote totals. Still, the interesting thing is how Hillary's argument that Obama "can't win" and she can seems to be backed up by the polling data.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:27 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hence electoral-vote.com, which pays attention to these kinds of things and gets as accurate a current picture of every state as possible and then how it figures into the electoral vote totals. Still, the interesting thing is how Hillary's argument that Obama "can't win" and she can seems to be backed up by the polling data.</div> Well the electoral vote does seem to be in McCain's favor, but Obama has picked up on him the last month. He was tied in the national matchup just a few weeks ago, now he's up 4.3 points. As long as he has the momentum, a one point lead doesn't mean anything right now.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm still not seeing the relevance to the electoral vote. I mean, I realize the Democrats don't have a clue about what democracy in a republic means, and that the rules are whatever it takes for them to win vs. being fair. RCP has McCain up over Obama in 2 of the 3 of PA, FLA, and OH. If he wins two of those three, he's going to win the general election, regardless of what RCP's average of ridiculously varying results. You have some oddball pollsters out there with dubious methodology being included in the RCP averages. Like Quinnipiac and their near double-digit lead for one side or the other, while other polls are within a point. That out-of-whack one poll screws up the average.</div> Actually that's not true this election cycle. The map has changed quite a bit. Obama will need to win PA, plus NM, CO, IA (all of which he's favored strongly in) and one more. The one more could be either NV, which is quite possible, VA which is a long shot, or OH which is even money.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (such sweet thunder @ May 22 2008, 12:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm still not seeing the relevance to the electoral vote. I mean, I realize the Democrats don't have a clue about what democracy in a republic means, and that the rules are whatever it takes for them to win vs. being fair. RCP has McCain up over Obama in 2 of the 3 of PA, FLA, and OH. If he wins two of those three, he's going to win the general election, regardless of what RCP's average of ridiculously varying results. You have some oddball pollsters out there with dubious methodology being included in the RCP averages. Like Quinnipiac and their near double-digit lead for one side or the other, while other polls are within a point. That out-of-whack one poll screws up the average.</div> Actually that's not true this election cycle. The map has changed quite a bit. Obama will need to win PA, plus NM, CO, IA (all of which he's favored strongly in) and one more. The one more could be either NV, which is quite possible, VA which is a long shot, or OH which is even money. </div> Indeed, I had forgotten about IA.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (such sweet thunder @ May 21 2008, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 22 2008, 12:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm still not seeing the relevance to the electoral vote. I mean, I realize the Democrats don't have a clue about what democracy in a republic means, and that the rules are whatever it takes for them to win vs. being fair. RCP has McCain up over Obama in 2 of the 3 of PA, FLA, and OH. If he wins two of those three, he's going to win the general election, regardless of what RCP's average of ridiculously varying results. You have some oddball pollsters out there with dubious methodology being included in the RCP averages. Like Quinnipiac and their near double-digit lead for one side or the other, while other polls are within a point. That out-of-whack one poll screws up the average.</div> Actually that's not true this election cycle. The map has changed quite a bit. Obama will need to win PA, plus NM, CO, IA (all of which he's favored strongly in) and one more. The one more could be either NV, which is quite possible, VA which is a long shot, or OH which is even money. </div> http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May21.html They have Obama winning PA, NM, CO, and IA. He's down 285-242 including those states. EDIT: flip OH to Obama and it's 265-262
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 21 2008, 11:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Want to see something weird? http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May21.html McCain 285 electoral votes to Obama's 242, with 11 up for grabs. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clin...Maps/May21.html Clinton 284 to McCain's 237 with 17 up for grabs. SST - what do you make of this?</div> There's a star blogger on the web whose beaten all of the polls for the last seven or eight races. His stuff is the best I've found on this type of question. Here's what the race looks like. The blog is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. There's tons of good stuff here, but the following is probably the most illustrative. Obama has about a ten percentage point higher chance of getting to 270. Clinton has a marginally better chance at a landslide.
