Look at how severely they underrated Kerry in 2004!!!!!! Also, Denny, how does one get called by Gallup? I get plenty of credit card offers, but never anything fun like that.
The point was to discuss 2010 results, not the 2008 and 2004 results. Because, you know, it's 2010 now. Yes, every pollster has their misses. Some have more misses than others. It's interesting to know which ones are more accurate. barfo
Historically, Rasmussen has been the most accurate. Were you posting threads when that was the case? You seem like the biggest partisan hack on this board, IMO.
I posted this thread in response to about 10,000 threads of Denny's trumpeting various Rasmussen polls this year. Had he not posted those, I would not be posting this. As for your opinion, it's amusing. barfo
They called me out of the blue. They have to use some random phone number generator for the poll to be reasonable.
No, it's not numerically meaningful. If you take his suggestion and remove HI as an outlier, the conclusion is still that Rasmussen had the worst record. As for whether I agree with him, I don't think I do, unless there is evidence that the HI result came from some glitch - like, for instance, someone made a typo. In that case, it definitely should be thrown out. But if it is just an infrequent failure of the method applied as intended, it seems to me that it should be kept. barfo
I didn't read his article to have anything to do with HI being an outlier. Maybe you want to read it again.
Don't think I really need to, since the bulk of the article is talking specifically about treating HI as an outlier. But just in case you missed it - even though you quoted it yourself earlier in the thread - here is the relevant portion: The words "worst poll ever" are a link to the HI poll. barfo
It's pretty clear he's saying Silver is making a mountain out of a molehill and is saying that Rasmussen's polls are generally so accurate that Silver's whole analysis is flawed - the entire set of polls being slightly off is the outlier.
Rasmussen has been incredibly accurate all along. I post his polls because I see them as predictive of how the other polls are going to be down the road. If Rasmussen shows Obama's approval rating at 40 and CNN shows it at 50, it's going to be 40 in CNN's poll given a little bit of time. Rasmussen crunches the numbers, which seems to be important to you. His methodology is posted on his WWW site. What is Nate Silver's methodology? Do tell! Rasmussen's biggest failure this time around was in Nevada, not in Hawaii. Otherwise, his 100+ polls to others' <10 polls haven't proven to be inaccurate enough to make a big deal about.
