Excellent point. Some of us who are now being slammed for "unrealistic" expectations, were previously being torched for being too pesimistic! Some of the over-the-top Oden defenders have been rather shameless about moving the goal posts!
Has he really improved? Look at his first 5 games back from the foot injury. Now look at his last 5 games. Improvement? And it appears he's injured again.
I'm so glad that you and others are saying this. Finally, people are keeping it real. People jump on me when I get down on Oden but one can't ignore what is right in front of our face! He has disappointed. Period. Yes, I can still root for him. Yes, I think he can be a good player. But he's not that great right now. Per 36/48 stats mean nothing to me. If you grab 5 rebounds in 12 minutes, it doesn't mean that you'd grab 20 in 48 minutes. That's not the way it works. Oden was advertised as a "once in a generation" center and most of us expected an easy 10/10 at minimum with a major impact on the defensive end. And he hasn't been that. And I get attacked when I say so. So, B-Roy, thanks for keeping it real.
I will close, however, with this: My brother put it perfectly. He said that Oklahoma City is going to score 90 to 100 points a game every night and SOMEONE has to score them. So Durant comes off as a great player on a bad team. He considers Durant an Iverson who needs lots of touches to be effective whereas he thinks Oden is a complimentary player, one who adds a dimension of defense and rebounding without needing a certain amount of touches to be effective. I get where he's coming from.
During the pre-season I predicted he would average 10 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. This was before he suffered his injury against LA. That injury would obviously affect his playing time and growth curve. I should have posted what I thought he would get after that injury, but I did not. None of this was a "wild guess". If you look at what other players near Oden's size have done in their first year after micro-fracture surgery it is clear they don't perform anywhere near the top of their ability (Amare was the best example I can think of). Further, Oden had only played 2/3rds of his freshmen year at Ohio State, and hadn't played a single regular season NBA game. Since I had no freaking clue what Oden was capable of in the NBA without the injury, the only guess I had was what player I thought he would most resemble. I have felt for a long time Oden was going to be like Nate Thurmond, a HoF center from the Russel/Wilt era. Nate averaged 15 points and 15 rebounds for his career. The NBA didn't track blocks for much of his career, so it is hard to say how many he got. So, considering I think Oden's ceiling is 15 and 15, and his stats would go down considerably due to injury, 10 and 10 was the best I thought he would do. If other people thought he was going to average 15 points and 15 rebounds a game then they were insane. Not one chance in hell he was going to do that coming off of Micro-fracture surgery. Much like the folks who are disappointed now, they set themselves up for depression. Do I think he can average 10 and 10 by the end of the season? Yes I do. As long as he remains relatively injury free and continues to show the improvement he has during the last month, I think he can get there. Does anyone know where you can look at a players stats based on home or away games? It feels like Oden tends to play much better at home, but I have no actual proof.
i'm fairly certain most people on here (or on bbb.net, rather) were saying he'd be at about 10/10 and plagued with foul trouble. sounds about right.
I think a majority of people were saying about 12.5, 9 and 1.5 if I can remember correctly. I actually think he could be getting about 12 and 9 this year if he could play 30-35mpg... but the foul problems and his inconsistancy (which may be directly related) have been somewhat disappointing this year.
http://www.basketballforum.com/portland-trail-blazers/400531-greg-vs-dwight.html I think that is what people were talking about in this thread. The lowest prediction was 10, 10 and 2, and even that guy was called out on low expectations. Most people were around 14 and 9.
Yeah, I think we all underestimated how much foul trouble he'd have, which has limited his playing time and thus his per-game stats. I think, however, his play when on the court has not been disappointing. And that's the main thing, to me. I figure he'll learn how to play without fouling (and refs will ease up on him a bit as he becomes more established), so the real key is...how good a player is he? I've been very pleased by his play, aside from the fouls.
I agree. This thread is stuffed to the freakin gills with excuses. Excuses are for babies. This is a man's league. Man up or go home. I (think I) predicted 12 - 10 - 2 for Oden this season. I thought those were conservative and realistic numbers considering. Nothing crazy. No reason to think my pre-season expectations were way out of line. He doesn't have those numbers. Period. End of story. That makes this season a "disappointment" (which was the only choice I had that matched, though "failed to meet expectations" is more accurate than "disappointment".
Definitely hasn't achieved anything close to my expectations at the beginning of the year. But I feel that it's more a failure on my part to appreciate his circumstances than any failure of his. He had missed a season, he was coming back from major surgery, he is playing a position and style that lends itself to heavy foul trouble early in the career. (Joel's first nickname was "Foulzilla.") As I get older, I often find that when people don't meet my expectations it's my fault and not theirs.
