I really doubt that. You aren't taking into account the next CBA with Stern talking about reducing contracts by upwards of 30% (reduction of existing contracts is still on the table). My guess is that if restricted free agency works anything close to what it works like now and those new contract figures are accurate my guess is that we'll see some team offer him maybe 9 million per year max. Don't forget he could miss at least 30 games this season due to his tendinitis, which only further underscores how fragile he can be.
Well, they look bad for letting him get to RFA territory (Kwame Brown anyone). We have to keep him, there is no argument that can convince me otherwise barring a career ending injury. Should have offered him a contract to lock him up but not overpay him and take the criticism. total franchise meltdown if for some reason the blazers don't match the offer next sumer.
I don't think Greg wanted a subrate contract. The two sides were never close. And really why does the team "look bad?" for not extending him? My guess is that the national media would have laid into the Blazers for being pie-in-the-sky or wishcasting, instead of being financially prudent and letting him actually earn an extension instead of hoping against hope that he'll eventually pan out.
I think 9 million is the starting point for any offers next summer for Oden, injury or not. He's a big center that still has the potential to be a center piece. I think if the blazers offered him that, likely would have taken it now just to put everyone at ease...on the open market, you never know what's up. Its not like they're going to SAVE any money by letting him be a RFA.
Yes they will ... and then when the player's union cracks after 6 months or a year of not drawing a paycheck (especially the middle of the pack earners that make up the bulk of the league) they'll bend over and take whatever the owners want and ask for another.
I don't think $9/mil a year is subrate, its actually quite generous considering the time he's been out. Its a gamble based on his potential contribution. The contract AFTER that is his big money contract. I still think a team will offer lots to try and get him from Portland.
I don't think I'm getting my point across? Contracts are not going to operate under the same rules. We don't know the specifics, but they will certainly be lower, or even partially guaranteed. Greg is going to be on the league's insurable contracts exception list, meaning if he breaks down yet again team's won't be able to recoup 80% of his salary if he goes down for a full season or has to take a medical retirement. Secondly, there's no money to "save" because Greg was never interested in taking a cut rate contract extension.
Given Greg's fragility, you're right, 9 million per year probably isn't subrate, it's probably overpaying. I don't think you get how scared off teams probably are by his injuries. teams don't throw huge money at an injury riddled big men? They might take a flier on him If the Blazers show little interest in matching or otherwise retaining him and I could see somebody throwing a larger amount of money over a shorter term (maybe 20ish million for two years?) or maybe even 8 million to 9 million for 4 years with a team option for the last year, but this notion that there's this huge group of GMs salivating over the chance to throw stupid money at him just doesn't seem likely.
I don't see this as any failing on the blazers' part. Greg's agents both said that they think of Greg as a dominant big man, and they think they'll be able to show that this season. He sees himself as all-star caliber and his agents aren't going to let him sign anything close to as low as the Blazers (or any other team) would offer right now. Greg thinks he can get the max, or at least LMA-level $$ if he has a good season. And if he does have a healthy, Greg-caliber season, he might be worth it. But Cho's not going to offer close to that, Greg and his agents agree, so they're gambling that they have a good season and PA pays later. Or someone else does.
I don't subscribe to that thinking, but I can see how the national perception could be skewed that way. Oden is the first #1 pick since Kwame Brown to not be extended. Regardless of the reason why, that fact is out there for consumption, and could reinforce to outside observers that Portland regrets making the pick. If they believed in Greg, why wouldn't they want to lock him up (or something along those lines)?
I posted this in another thread, but I can see Dan Gilbert overpaying for Oden to try and get some Buckeye fans in the seats. Cleveland is going to be terrible this year, and Gilbert will have to do something to charge up the fanbase. If Oden comes back and plays an effective 50 games, I can see Gilbert offering him a near-max contract. At that point, would Portland match? I doubt it.
Fine. Just let it be known that the market will set the price, not the Blazers and we'll still probably end up paying more or even possibly losing Oden if the price is just too high to justify.
There are a few teams that will have quite a bit of cap space who would offer Oden a max or near max deal. Indiana- Home state Cleavland- Ohio State fans. Need redemption after losing lebronze. Knicks- crowded down low but if they miss out on Melo. Oklahoma City- has cap space needs center. Oden + Durant? yikes. Memphis- how the ZBOEC could kill us. Nets- already have lopez but russian billionaire wants a marquee marketing machine.
oh yes. will never ever ever happen. ever. It doesn't matter if he's a "max player" or not. If a team wants him, they'll offer what it takes to get him or to get him away from portland. Money isn't indicative of performance, but need or current conditions. Last summer, who would have thought all of those insane contracts would have been made.
Indiana - Roy Hibbert Cleveland - Don't see it Knicks - Carmelo anthony OKC - Aint happening(Big $ to Durant/Westbrook/Green/etc) Memphis - Just no...lol + Marc Gasol Nets - Lopez/Favors Yeah, stop worrying.
some max contract or "close to max" contract players: Rashard Lewis Yao Ming Michael Redd ZBO Gilbert Arenas AK47 Joe Johnson Kenyon Martin Elton Brand Peja
