This team has shown a propensity to wildly fuck up salary cap situations. Should have to worry. At a minimum, like I said, the highest reasonable offer we would have made now is the STARTING point for next summer in the best case scenario. Worst case is we lose Oden.
Simple answer to that. Tons of teams cleared the decks just on the outside chance that they might cash in on the best free agent class ever, when it became apparent that there were going to be some losers in that game of "talent musical chairs" there were too many dollars left chasing too little talent and it became a matter of use it or lose it. I also think a lot of teams offered these contracts with the thought in the back of their mind that when the new CBA kicks in, that they either A) might be able to retroactively cut these contracts down, or B) with a long lockout there's a full year of potentially not having to pay out on them. In the next free agency period there aren't going to be nearly as many teams with cap room, the contracts are going to be significantly smaller, and the whole "toxic contract" notion is a Paul Allen move, there are only a handful of owners in the league that can absorb the kind of risk that accompanies giving Greg a near max deal when that contract will be un-insurable, and if it comes down to trying to outbid the Blazers, that's an awfully weird game of chicken to engage in with the league's richest owner, especially when offering a huge deal locks up your money for as much as a week. With only 82 games in 3+ years and potentially another 50 game season on his resume' it's going to be awfully tough to justify throwing huge money at him regardless of the kind of season he ends up having. I think you're fretting needlessly, and again it's not a matter of locking him up early because the Blazers would only be bidding against themselves and Greg's reps made it pretty clear they weren't willing to take an injury discount on an extension, so the point is moot anyway.
Not sure how this team has "wildly" fucked up salary cap situations. I think you're "wildly" over exaggerating. Also, there's too many unanswered questions to make a claim like that on potential contract numbers.
As to OKC, Jeff Green isn't getting a contract extension either. Durant has already been extended and Westbrook isn't until next year. They have a ton of cap space. http://www.nbadraft.net/state-cap-oklahoma-city-thunder-0 http://hoopshype.com/salaries/oklahoma_city.htm Green is expendable since they have other guys at that position like Harden. Westbrook they don't need to worry about for 2 more years for a contract extension. And like I said, they need a center badly.
Harden is a 2, Jeff Green is a combo forward, they're going to want to save some money for Westbrook, and I think they see Aldrich as being serviceable -- and cheap for now.
BTW, here is the 2011 free agent class. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11 Next year's FA class is EXTREMELY weak. A guy like Oden WILL get overpaid due to teams having cap space and not that many options. Notable: unrestricted: Jason Richardson, ZBO, Carmello, Yao, restricted: Marc Gasol, Greg Oden, Jeff Green IMO, Greg Oden will be the #2 Free Agent target next summer.
Who saw Wesley Matthews as a 9 million dollar man? And there's a question that someone won't overpay for Oden? Is it a risk? Sure. So are a lot of signings. Pretty easy to sell a fan base on taking a chance on a big guy like Greg.
If Greg has a healthy rest of the season giving you somewhere between his rookie year and the start of this year, he is $60m contract, I believe, if he has a healthy but erratic year, he is a $50m contract, I think, if he comes like gangbusters and kills everything in sight, he is close to a Max. While I think Greg has the talent to do it - I do not think he will this year, simply because of the long absence from the floor. My gut feeling is that we will see Greg getting somewhere between $50m to $60m next year - and he will continue to play for the Blazers in this range. At this point, I just do not see how the Blazers can pay him that without seeing him going through the season and staying healthy. It was a wise decision by the Blazers - and a good one for Greg as well. Let's just hope the kid is healthy for the year and the Blazers show him the love next year by offering him somewhere in the $50-60 first before he needs to go fish for FA offers.
If Harden is 2, Durant as 3. They don't need Green at all, they have a few duplicating swingmen. And Alrdrich is a good backup center.
Waited 2 years of holding bad contracts to have cap space for "one or two max players" and ended up with Andre Miller. Plus the whole RLEC thing.
It was one max player at best and the Darius Miles plan ended up not panning out. I don't see how the Blazers can be faulted there. By not using the RLEC they got that money in the off-season to spend. No difference, unless you wanted to trade for Jefferson/Carter/Wallace/Dre at the trade deadline and give up Batum.
Also, unless you know what the new CBA will look like it's pretty much pointless to speculate about next year especially when there will be a lockout.
Which is why Oden and Green are the only RFA from their class of note? Everyone else has gotten their contracts already. Point being, I don't think the Blazers really have much of an advantage to wait and let other teams dictate how much Oden is worth, when in my opinion, of the next FA pool next summer, he's rated #2 for the teams listed due to his potential impact still. If there was a more talented free agent class and less teams with available money to sign, then maybe waiting MAY have some kind of advantage that we aren't smart enough to know about.
I just don't care much for letting others set the value on what could potentially be the top free agent. I see allowing smaller guys to hit RFA. But many here wanted LMA to hit RFA, and I honestly think we'd have been looking at him with another 5-10 million tacked onto his current deal if that were the case. But, again, this comes from both sides. Oden's camp knows they could lose out on money if he plays well. I guess it's a risk they are willing to take o fhim being healthy, depending on what might have been offered by Cho and co.
I don't think it matters at all if he plays well or not. He's been scouted extensively and we know what the ceiling is and its really high. Only downer is the injuries. If he's healthy he can easily take a lotto team to the playoffs and beyond IMO. Nothing has changed as to his potential and he's still a strong force in the middle.
I have no idea about the Green situation, but all I know is Greg Oden has played in 82 games in 3+ years and has had two major knee surgeries. I don't think any other player that has been extended from the 2007 class has that on their NBA resume.
Doesn't matter. I think teams with cap space will be willing to roll the dice on paying Oden versus a Yao Ming or Jason Richardson. Of the available players, I still think he's right up there after mello. We just have to wonder how much and how high the Blazers are willing to go to keep Oden. If a team offers him a max contract, will the Blazers match? I would think they would have to....so no worries from that end. We'll just be overpaying him a few more million than we could have had we offered a fair or slight overpay now.
Which is why they aren't offering him an extension ... especially when Ibaka appears to be a better option longterm at the 4 spot.
Yes. So it would make sense for them to offer lots of money to sign Oden. Just the fact of having Westbrook + Durant and Oden would be worth it. And they should still have cap space after that too. Why would OKC NOT offer Oden a big contract?
Was it not said in this thread Oden and his agents would rather not extend with the team and play this season out so he can get more money? This whole the Blazers should have offered Oden $8M a year and keep him on the cheap just isn't reality. It wasn't an option.
