If you offered the right level you wouldn't have to worry about that. There is a number that the blazers could have hit and Oden would have signed on that line. And as I stated, that is the MINIMUM they'll have to pay next year. I think somewhere in the 9-10 million a year range would have gotten it done.
That's speculation. It could be that some things are, in fact, not speculation. But, I'm speculating.
You don't think Oden (or his agent) knows that the max he might have been offered this summer is the minimum he would have been offered next? What would have been the incentive for Oden to accept an extension if it had been offered?
Security. Plus the new CBA may work in either direction, so getting a contract under old rules might help them too.
Which means getting a contract under the new rules might not help them, which means it might help us. So what you're saying is that not extending him now could be a good thing.
Not sure I buy the security reasoning considering he knows for a fact he'll get at least like $5M a year if all goes wrong. I'd call that more than security.
I think the likelihood is not so. I think the contract we end up giving him will not be as good as negotiating now since there will really not be any negotiations on the part of the Blazers. Basically wait until a team with cap space offers Oden as much as they want and the Blazers match or not. Its a lot of unanswered questions. I'd rather the blazers offer him something slightly higher than he should get and just roll with it.
How hard can this be? Contracts are going to be considerably "lighter" under the new CBA, a max contract could be downwards of 30% lower than they currently are, ergo even if the rules of free agency and restricted free agency are still mostly the same, it's doubtful that whatever offer he might receive after the impending lockout would be higher than the Blazers bidding against themselves now. You've got the chicken little thing going pretty hard here.
Why is it doubtful? Again, look at the field and show me who besides Carmello Anthony is going to be pursued as hotly as Oden would be? Teams will still have the money. Its just kind of odd when a team does not extend an offer to their free agents and lets them become RFA. The end result is usually not a cost savings, but matching toxic offers or letting them walk. With not signing Oden, there is a chance he does not return to the Blazers next season. If he was locked up, he will be back for sure. Simple as that. I just like the peace of mind that he's locked up instead of worrying if the Thunder offer him max money and Paul Allen decides he doesn't want to pay $13 million a year for a guy who's missed a lot of games.
I suspect that Rich Cho has a fairly good handle on what Greg's real market value is, having just come from OKC. The bottom line here is that I think you and I have a different opinion about what Greg's actual value is around the league. Personally I think it's quite low due to all of the red flags surrouding his durability. If it was strictly a case of Greg taking extra long to develop, or if he was a playing 60 games a year consistently then it would have been a much more cut and dried decision; he'd be making Al Horford, Joachim Noah money (12 mil per year). Instead the Blazers are looking at this from the perspective that maybe Oden's body can't handle the rigors of the NBA, his extension would have been uninsurable and if Greg really does miss another full year or more of games his contract could cripple this team for years. There are only a few of ways I see this playing out. 1) Greg comes back and has a mostly healthy and productive season and some team offers him what he's worth, but that will still be slightly less than a full max deal (whatever that will be under the new CBA) and the Blazers match, 2) he gets hurt again or massively underperforms, either of which kills his value and he becomes the kind of player that some team takes a flier on for a couple of years at the mid-level exception and the Blazers probably match or the Blazers construct a 2 or 3 year deal themselves. Or 3) he suffers an injury that puts his entire career in jeopardy and the Blazers decide they've had enough and make other plans for the longterm and let him become somebody else's problem. Whatever happens the Blazers will have made a sound and conscientious decision IMO.
If Greg comes back mostly healthy and productive, he could get a max offer. Its a no lose situation for many of these teams really....they're either not going anywhere (Cleavland, Indiana) and need some marketing/jersey sales or they have tons of cap space and need a big guy and are willing to throw money around (OKC). Letting other teams determine how much you pay your FA is not conscientious, especially when he is billed as a franchise, once in a generation type of talent. For mid level talent, its ok, but for a player that COULD conceivably get max money, its downright stupid.
No. If Oden stays healthy this year..no chance in hell. For Clevland, who lost LeBron...Oden would help a bit with marketing and getting a big name. Same with Indiana who has sucked for a while. Oklahoma City...like I said, scares me the most since they need a center the most, Oden is the same age and they have lots of cap room. This would be huge if they pulled that off. What would stop them from offering Oden max money if he played decently and non-injured?
Like I said, you and I have vastly different opinions on what we think Oden's value is around the league. We're not going to agree, we're not likely to have our minds changed here and ultimately we just wait and find out what happens.
