Resignation over flawed paper "debunking" man-made global warming

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by bluefrog, Sep 15, 2011.

  1. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    125,029
    Likes Received:
    145,273
    Trophy Points:
    115
    Only god can change a climate.
     
  2. julius

    julius Living on the air in Cincinnati... Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    45,098
    Likes Received:
    33,845
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Sales Manager
    Location:
    Cincinnati
    are you blaming god for climate change?

    why do you hate god so much? what did he ever do to you?
     
  3. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    34,349
    Likes Received:
    25,379
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    How many gods does it take to change a climate?

    A: [your joke can appear here, send $100 to PO Box 47, Grand Rapids, MI 34923]

    barfo
     
  4. julius

    julius Living on the air in Cincinnati... Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    45,098
    Likes Received:
    33,845
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Sales Manager
    Location:
    Cincinnati
    42.
     
  5. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    34,349
    Likes Received:
    25,379
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    I will give you props for that. You are a gentleman and a scholar. Well, maybe not a scholar. But definitely a gentleman. And if I've said some things that either were interpreted as less than cordial, or were intended as less than cordial, or both, my bad.

    Agree completely. Although he looks a lot less stiff these days than he did back in 2000.

    barfo
     
  6. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    34,349
    Likes Received:
    25,379
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    I guess I picked a bad illustration. Obviously, since John is suckling at the public teat for his income, he is infinitely more criminal than Bob, who is an ongoing victim of unconstitutional government interference upon his right to accumulate wealth through his own efforts.

    barfo
     
  7. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2008
    Messages:
    30,704
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm not sure what you mean by "pro-AGW" (I don't think in acronyms even though I'm a government contractor) But if you're asking me whether or not people in the natural sciences have biases and predispositions towards certain conclusions then, sure, I think a lot of scientists are like a lot of people in other walks of life. Whether they mean to or not, they have pre-conceived notions and tend to look for things that back up those pre-conceived notions.

    Bias aside, as far as real, measurable sea level rise goes ... it's real for a lot of places, but actually measuring it is much more complex than just "filling up a bathtub and setting a water level." For one thing Lower-low water and higher-high water are variable day-to-day and year-to-year, it's affected by La Nina-El Nino oscillation events, lunar perigee and apogee, plate tectonics, erosion/accretion, storm overwash events, etc. But on average there has definitely been a slight increase in sea-level since regular tidal-guage monitoring began (approximately 0.5-2 cm/yr increase since the mid twentieth century). Now here's the rub, just because I can give you a trend line, doesn't mean that sea level is rising everywhere (hell, it's dropping in certain places!) and just because something has been measured doesn't mean that it's significant on a geologic time-scale -- one hundred years is a blink of the eye really -- what we have are hypotheses and some statistical correlation between increased carbon dioxide levels and a slight raising of the mean temperature of the earth over a very short geologic time scale. So what's concerning to me isn't that the earth is warming or that ocean levels are rising slightly it's the rate of change that that seems aberrant when compared to cooling/warming events in the past.

    Does that mean that human consumption of hydrocarbons is absolutely causing a reduction in polar ice and glaciers worldwide? I really don't know, I'm not a climatologist, but what I can tell you is that I think a lot of the "science" is being politicized by people outside of the scientific community (by both liberals and conservatives) From my own studies based on analyzing hundreds of LANDSAT scenes normalized for tide, there's definitely a pattern of subsidence and inundation along the barrier islands of the gulf coast and numerous atolls in the central pacific. In other places, like the Pacific Northwest coastline there's generally so much accretion from sediment and enough tectonic uplift that in most cases whatever sea level rise is occurring is either imperceptible over the last 30 years or there's even a slight increase in certain landform types like estuarine beach and ocean beach, it's very tough to generalize or extrapolate these sorts of observations without doing a systematic survey and analysis of a random stratified sample of the rest of the world's coastlines (good luck with that!).

    I'll give you my personal opinion however, I do believe that the "imminent disaster" presentation of the data is being overblown by certain people in an attempt to shock people into changing their behavior; what looks to me like a 300-500 year problem is being compressed into a 50 to 100 years to put it on a human time scale, probably because a "crisis" on a semi-geologic time scale isn't going to get anybody to act. To me that's the real travesty; valid scientific inquiry is probably being co-opted and overstated by people with an agenda (on the left) and in the end they will probably end up completely discrediting studies by "crying wolf," trying to go for a slam dunk.

    What's really needed in my opinion is real monitoring instead of just relying on deterministic and stochastic modelling, which is almost always based on data with huge gaps: lack of reliable accretion/erosion data, lack of tidal gauge data in many locations, lack of high precision LiDAR DEM (digital elevation models) coverage, etc.

    So whatever the case, I can state frankly that I don't really give a damn whose fault it is for a gradual warming of the globe; roughly 75% of the earth's population lives within 10 feet of sea level and if sea level rises a meter by 2090 (a median estimate in most sea level rise models) then that's a very expensive problem for an over-populated world to have.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2011
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
  9. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2008
    Messages:
    30,704
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Interesting stuff Denny, incidentally that trendline you posted is kind of misleading, there's so much noise in sample that small and frankly, it's not really statistically significant (sort of like polling 2 people about voting tendencies and then extrapolating that to the populace at large). For instance if the tidal data in the Pacific is being analyzed then you need enough data to capture several ENSO cycles -- because each ENSO is different in intensity, duration and frequency. I'm not saying that trendline you posted is false, but whomever created it should know better. However the composite imagery you showed jives with most of the data I've looked at.
     
  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    You're talking about the temperature graph (I called it sinusoidal)?

    I posted it in response to Julius saying this was a particularly hot summer/year. It was meant to show 2009 was a very cold year.

    My comment about it looking like a sine wave was coincidental. Obviously, the time frame of the chart is tiny, and I would not extrapolate that it's similar over geologic time frames.

    BTW, we didn't have a summer in San Diego last year. We have what we call May Gray and June Gloom, typically. The normal pattern is the marine layer is gone for the 4th of July through about October. Last year, we had grey skies and chilly weather from mid-January on, and I don't recall any 80 degree days at all.
     
  11. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    1,964
    Likes Received:
    81
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Occupation:
    Programmer
    Location:
    New Bern
    Thoughtful response. Repped
     
  12. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2008
    Messages:
    30,704
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No not the temperature graph, the sea-level rise/fall graph that shows a two year sample size
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2011
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    I went D'oh a few minutes after I made my post. I figured out you were talking about the sea level graph.

    :cheers:
     
  14. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2008
    Messages:
    30,704
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No worries.
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    More on resignations from scientific organizations.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/en...ing-as-Nobel-laureate-resigns-in-protest.html

    Prof Giaever is one of the most prominent scientific dissenters challenging the controversial man-made global warming claims of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former US vice-president Al Gore.

    He has testified to the US Senate about his doubts, calling himself a "sceptic" on global warming and citing both his birthplace and other scientific scares he has seen come and go during his career.

    "I am Norwegian, should I really worry about a little bit of warming?" he said. "I am unfortunately becoming an old man. We have heard many similar warnings about the acid rain 30 years ago and the ozone hole 10 years ago or deforestation but the humanity is still around.

    "Global warming has become a new religion. We frequently hear about the number of scientists who support it. But the number is not important: only whether they are correct is important. We don't really know what the actual effect on the global temperature is. There are better ways to spend the money."

    Prof Giaever, 82, is not alone in rejecting the APS's insistence that there is consensus on the existence and severity of man-made global warming.

    Several prominent members have expressed frustration that it has refused to reconsider its position – drawn up in 2007 – in the light of the "Climategate" controversy about the findings of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

    "Measured or reconstructed temperature records indicate that 20th - 21st century changes are neither exceptional nor persistent, and the historical and geological records show many periods warmer than today," dissenters wrote in an open letter to it its governing board.

    ...
     
  16. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    34,349
    Likes Received:
    25,379
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    So lets see. He doesn't care because he's old and is from a cold place, and other environmental problems didn't kill the human race. Of course, that's partly because we took action to fix those problems.

    This guy is somewhat less than a star witness for your side, Denny.

    barfo
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    Yeah, but he's right.
     
  18. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    1,964
    Likes Received:
    81
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Occupation:
    Programmer
    Location:
    New Bern
    He seems like an old cranky coot
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2011
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,978
    Likes Received:
    10,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    He seems like an old school scientist who wasn't brainwashed by a generation of guys doing bad science.

    In a fresh challenge to claims that there is scientific "consensus" on climate change, Prof Ivar Giaever has resigned from the American Physical Society, where his peers had elected him a fellow to honour his work.

    The society, which has 48,000 members, has adopted a policy statement which states: "The evidence is incontrovertible: global warming is occurring."


    But Prof Giaever, who shared the 1973 Nobel award for physics, told The Sunday Telegraph. "Incontrovertible is not a scientific word. Nothing is incontrovertible in science."

    The US-based Norwegian physicist, who is the chief technology officer at Applied Biophysics Inc and a retired academic at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, the oldest technological university in the English-speaking world, added: "Global warming has become the new religion."
    Prof Giaever was one of Barack Obama's leading scientific supporters during the 2008 president election campaign, joining 70 Nobel science laureates endorsing his candidacy.

    But he has since criticised Mr Obama over his stance on global warming and was one of more 100 scientists who wrote an open letter to him, declaring: "We maintain that the case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated."

    He has now parted company with the APS after what he called lengthy consideration. In an email to its executive office Kate Kirby, he said he "cannot live" with its official statement on global warming.

    He questioned whether the average temperature of "the whole earth for a whole year" can be accurately measured, but contended that even if the results are accurate, they indicate the climate has actually been "amazingly stable" for 150 years.

    And he concluded that in any case, both "human health and happiness have definitely improved" over the so-called "warming period" of the last century and a half.

    In its policy statement, the APS declares: "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now."
     
  20. bluefrog

    bluefrog Go Blazers, GO!

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    1,964
    Likes Received:
    81
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Occupation:
    Programmer
    Location:
    New Bern
    I'm sure you know the difference between "Global Warming" and "Anthropogenic Global Warming".

    "Incontrovertible" was not a good word choice but I hardly think it's worth resigning over.
     

Share This Page