Ric Bucher Likes OKC Over Blazers In A Few Years

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by ABM, Apr 3, 2009.

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  1. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    it is absolutely crazy that ed o completely dismissing roy as a top 10 player with statements like "well it's unlikely that's he better than every other player in the league other than the top 6" or whatever he's been saying. if it's so unlikely, then why is he putting up better numbers for a better team while he is carrying the load for that better team?
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #181
  2. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    It's not crazy. Ed didn't say anyone was crazy. He simply disagreed that Roy is in that class. That's not crazy either.
     
    Minstrel, Apr 4, 2009
    #182
  3. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    if top 5-10 production isn't that same as being a top 5-10 player, then what the fuck is it?

    and any single season is likely to be a fluke? really?
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #183
  4. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Not over the hill, but he's stagnated and is no longer improving.

    2005-06 PER = 23.2
    2006-07 PER = 22.6
    2007-08 PER = 23.8
    2008-09 PER = 22.0

    Roy's substantially ahead of Bosh in PER (7th vs. 14th), Win Shares (7th vs. 20th), Offensive Rating (4th vs. not in the top 20), etc. - and he's doing it on a team that's 21 games over 0.500, not one that's 16 games under.

    I doubt Chris Bosh tallies a single point in the MVP voting this season. Roy, won't finish in the top 5, but he will receive some consideration/recognition from the voters.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 4, 2009
    #184
  5. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    You can't even properly relate what my point is, and you think that my point is "absolutely crazy"?

    OK...

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #185
  6. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Try to read my posts. I know that you can't be bothered to pay attention to the crazy numbers I'm throwing around, but I'm not going to reiterate my point for someone who won't read it the first time. Sorry.

    Sure. Any single season is likely to be a fluke.

    If you're given a single die to cast, and you have no idea how many sides are on it, you can roll the die... and get a 7. What is the expected value of the next cast, and what is the number of sides on the die?

    Without any additional information, you should probably answer "7" and "13", I would think... it's better than saying any other single number. With a few more data points, though, you can give answers that are more likely to be correct.

    In the absence of alternatives, the previous season alone is the best thing to go by. When a track record exists, though, it's easier to argue that a player's production is more reflective of his capabilities and expected contribution to a team.

    Ed O.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2009
    Ed O, Apr 4, 2009
    #186
  7. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Ed (and he can jump in if I'm mischaracterizing his argument) seems to be saying that one season of being top-ten statistically is not sufficient for being considered a "top ten player in the league" (which implies a steady-state status). Roy's been one of the ten best players this season...he needs to have more than one season to be counted a superstar. I think that's what he's saying.
     
    Minstrel, Apr 4, 2009
    #187
  8. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    should we really care what "most" think? most people just finally realized that lebron plays defense. most wouldn't admit that yao was a good player for years because espn always just talked about him being dunked on. most think lots of incredibly stupid things.
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #188
  9. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    ...the implication being that Ed doubts that Roy can improve or even keep this up next season.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Apr 4, 2009
    #189
  10. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Neither am I. Just wondering why you can't admit that Hollinger was incorrect on his projection. Seems pretty factual to me at this point.
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #190
  11. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    It's a bit sad seeing Minstrel having to try and clean up Ed's mess.

    His heart doesn't seem to be in it.
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #191
  12. BengalDuck

    BengalDuck Well-Known Member

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    The implication that being one of the "best players in the league" requires lag of past performance is silly.

    Is Tracy McGrady still a top 10 player, then? Because including the last, say, seven years... he's been dominant. How about Shaq? Top 3?
     
    BengalDuck, Apr 4, 2009
    #192
  13. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I think I see where Ed's trying to come from, and based on what I see from his definition there's a bias towards veterans who have a track record of greatness. For instance, I personally think Roy's a) having a much better year than Garnett, b) is more valuable to his team right now, and c) has a much higher upside because d) Garnett's in an age- (and injury-) related decline. But if a person's definition of superstar hinges on track record, or how much they're talked about on SportsCenter, or the who's who of announcers on a player's jock, then players like Nowitski, Garnett, etc. will be consider bigger "stars" than Roy.

    That's not my definition, but I can understand the logic.
     
    BrianFromWA, Apr 4, 2009
    #193
  14. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand why that is relevant? Why would it matter what most considered? And in what capacity? Most people outside of here think Durant was the better pick, but you do not. Most people here believe Roy is a top 10 player, but you do not. There is no way to factually make your claim, it's an opinion. Either you think Roy is better than them, or you do not. If you were to consider what "most" thought, Durant was the better pick, no?

    You either think he is, or he isn't. Why list him and not commit to stating your opinion? Or are you just going with the consensus? And if you were to say Zach Randolph was at least equal to Chris Bosh, I don't know why would list Bosh other than to appease the consensus.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2009
    AmirIcon, Apr 4, 2009
    #194
  15. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    you named the 7 players you thought were definitely better than roy. then you said it was unlikely that roy was better than all but two of the rest of the players in the league. is that not properly relating your point?

    i say that when you look at roy's numbers and what he's done for his team(and where that has gotten them) that it is very unlikely that there are more than 3 better players than him in the league(after the 6 i put ahead of him).
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2009
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #195
  16. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    What a sore winner you are. It makes you seem small in the eyes of others. And don't tell me that others' opinions don't matter, because this display disproves that.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Apr 4, 2009
    #196
  17. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    The problem with that reasoning is that many of the players with a more established "track record" are declining. Roy has already passed several of them, and he's still on his way up, while they are on their way down.

    Roy's production clearly places him in the top 10 players in the league statistically this season (7th best by most measures). He is also the best player and clear team leader on a top 10 team.

    You can argue against that all you want, but doing so flies in the face of logic and sound reasoning.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Apr 4, 2009
    #197
  18. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    A sore winner? What does that mean, Ed?
     
    PapaG, Apr 4, 2009
    #198
  19. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    roy has been one of the best ten players this season. that is what makes him a top ten player in the league. if we asked who the top ten players in the league over the last 5 seasons have been, we'd get a different answer.
     
    rocketeer, Apr 4, 2009
    #199
  20. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    There's always a lag of past performance necessary. If Rafer Alston scores 50 points in a game, is he now a top player in the league? Obviously not. So it takes more than the most current performance. How much lag is required is up for debate.
     
    Minstrel, Apr 4, 2009
    #200
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