How does anyone know what a player in the top 12 of 2022 draft's ceiling is? I bet the so called experts are wrong as much as they are right. Who's got the highest ceiling in the 2 round? Who has the narrowest variance between low ceiling and high ceiling? How many potential HOFers are in this draft? What top 15 player drafted is out of the league first?
All good points because we don't know how much each will improve. And they always need to. I guess I based it on his size ( 6'8" PF) and my guess is he will never dominate as stars do. But he is solid at pretty much everything. Including a nice 3pt stroke for a stretch 4.
Genuinely have no idea how i missed the other threads. Damn. Sorry @PtldPlatypus i think that green exclusive thing made me ignore the threads. My order woulda been: 1. Paolo 2. Jabari 3. Ivey 4. Holmgren
Shaedon Sharpe may have the best upside of the players left but his unknowns give him high bustability and we aren't in the same position as the teams that will presumably be drafting around us. We need a PF, so if the guy available can fill that position and there isn't a disparity too big between him and someone who fills another position then we go with the best PF who stretches the floor, who's available. Keegan Murray rebounds the ball well 8.7rpg this season, he shoots the three at 39.8, he's 6'8" with a 6'11" wingspan and at 225 with his build he should be a great size to play the modern PF position. He blocked 1.9 shots per game this season and stole the ball 1.5 times per game, so he has the ability to impact the game on the defensive end. I think this might be the first guy on our board if he ends up fifth that at least tests at the combine so his measurements and drill results should be interesting. Scouts are saying that he may have grown to 6'9" and that he's improved his vert and speed in the last year. Any pick that doesn't get us Jabari or Paolo is a pick that I think has to be traded for a player already in the league that we know what we're getting with ,that will fill a position of need and add wins in the regular season and playoffs. I am basing these picks on the idea that the pick isn't available to be traded and we have to keep the player.
The issue is that the disparity between Shaedon and Keegan is massive. Shaedon is widely regarded to be one of the only possible superstars in this draft. Keegan is not. I forgot who posted above … maybe it was you … but determining the ceiling of a player is tough so Keegan could certainly be that. But most “stars” have the same “general” traits so it does make putting a ceiling on a player possible even if they may bust thru that ceiling (although it may be highly unlikely.) Personally, I’d rather take a chance on drafting a star, and use other assets to get a PF.
Right now we have to be looking at floors way more than we're looking at ceilings. A risky pick like Shaedon (that's just the way I see him and I've watched video) is just not a pick that we can make... like the fine print said, I wouldn't be looking to keep any of these guys but out of all of the players left that we'd be forced to keep Keegan is the guy I'd take. Keegan still has upside, he fills a position of need and his floor is so far and above where I see Shaedon's. It's not even a hard call for me given our team's circumstances. It will be hard to avoid all of that potential Shaedon has starting with the next pick. I'm not alone, just about every mock out there has Keegan going in this spot ahead of Shaedon, that doesn't make it right, it just means that my opinion isn't crazy. You wanting to swing for the fences can be defended but I don't know if it makes sense on this roster. If there's a GM that's as excited about Shaedon as you I hope he's willing to put his money where his mouth is and give us proven NBA talent at a position of need that is close to equal to what you say Shaedon is.
Possibly. But usually some player you never suspect ALSO flies up draft boards and will bump him down again!
You keep saying that. Evidence? If he is it's because he's an unknown quantity. Remember, actual drafts NEVER go like the mock drafts because actual stupid humans with concerns that we don't know about (like job security) are involved, and people like that are also fucking TERRIFIED of unknown quantities. Sharpe probably also has various things counting against him, like the fact that every Canadian taken high in the draft has been a massive disappointment.
I did say that the 5th pick realistically should only be between 2 people in this scenario - Murray and Sharpe. Where I disagree with you is the fact that you said “if there is a massive difference”. There is a massive talent difference between Keegan and Shaedon. That’s why people are ready to draft him so high with literally no experience. Though you did make it clear you’re more interested in a players “floor” rather than ceiling. I think that’s a mistake, particularly this high in the draft. If you have a chance to get a superstar talent, you take it. Particularly when you can most likely get Sochan, Eason or even Jerami Grant assuming the later pick conveys. Now if the later pick doesn’t convey, yeah, Murray might be the better option (which is why I said Murray and Sharpe are realistically the only two options here) but if Sharpe turns into the next Kobe Bryant how pissed would we all be?
Someone else asked this I answered it. Feel free to read “The Athletic” article, the NBA “best available” scouting reports as well as the “Ringer” YouTube channel and ESPN YouTube draft segment.
We already passed on Giannis and so did 14 other teams. It was only a mistake in hindsight. If we have a guy like Eason graded out high enough to take a risk with our pick then I guess Sharpe would be worth the wager but we're not in the position where we want to wager if we're trying to, as our interim GM said, build an immediate contender around Dame. Murray is more ready and a better positional fit for this team than Sharpe and that's why he's higher on my big board. Should Murray not be there at our pick and it's between a bunch of guards and wings it will be hard for me to choose between Shaedon Sharpe, Davis, Mathurin and Griffin but a fit like Murray with the experience and what he's shown this year it wasn't a hard choice for me, it was obviously Murray for me but hey maybe I'm wrong.
Every draft there is the first pick where it deviates substantially from just about every mock because some team has reached. I'm guessing this year it'll be a team picking Duren, and I hope it happens before our first pick. But he could just as easily fall - after all Wiseman (and to a lesser extent Achiuwa) haven't done him any favors.
I wasn’t aiming at you or your take. I have used ceiling & floor many times as a way to guesstimate potential. My son asked me once when i was using those terms if it was 7’ ceiling or 10’ ceiling.
Looks like this is coming out similar to the Paolo/Chet debate. Low ceiling/high floor player getting slightly more votes than the riskier guy with higher upside.
Sharpe projects as the best perimeter defender left on the board outside of Eason and Sochan and has more offensive upside than anyone left. He's supposedly 6'6 with a 7'0 wingspan. I think Chauncey would work wonders with him. Meanwhile, Keegans a safe pick but has limited upside. The only way the Blazers win a chip with Dame is to take some high risk/high reward chances and have them pan out. Pretty easy calculation for me.
Don't understand why people are voting along these lines, because it's not the way we get a ring with Dame in my opinion. Gotta raise this teams ceiling as much as possible, even if it's risky.
Canadian nationality has nothing to do with anything. SGA panned out. Sharpe played HS ball in the US. Don't see why being Canadian should be held against him whatsoever. We gotta stop slighting prospects for their nationality.
