Thanks for being generous in your reading of my prediction. I do expect the team to win 50. But not 55. I am counting on Derrick being back for the last third of the season, and able to contribute to great effect in the last quarter of the season. I am expecting Butler to be a significantly improved player, Taj to be a significant contributor at more minutes, and Nazr will not be a huge drop off from Asik, overall. I don't know what to expect from Bellinelli or Robinson. Just curious and not devastated that we won't have Kyle CJ or Ronnie. Of course, that is trusting that the injury situation will not repeat itself or infect boozer or Noah. I'm probably on the high side of generic expectations. But yeah, 50 wins is about right.
Not one of those guys has played the role before. At least not effectively. Two really important things need to happen for us to really have a good season (before Rose might come back). Deng needs to step up and be a #1 option. Rip needs to be healthy and play at least 30 MPG in almost every game.
Sure, I'd agree with that, to a degree. Guys will need to step up, and not one guy is going to fill Rose's role. Let's put it this way. If Rose doesn't make it back at all, is 45 wins out of the question? I don't think so. And I think Rose will make it back and add roughly 5 wins to the total in a reasonable estimation of his impact. Rose has a dog in this race, and its Kirk. He needs to hold up the fort and shoot for a 45 win performance (prorated) for the first 2/3rds of the season. I think he can do it. I know you don't. Well, we'll see.
I think the Bulls are nuts to rush Rose back. If they're within sniffing distance of the playoffs very late in the season, I could see giving him some PT. Otherwise, they're better off letting the dogs they have on the roster do the hunting for the season, then rebuild the roster around a healthy Rose the season after.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/e.../owner-says-bulls-wont-rush-derrick-rose-back Derrick Rose's recovery is under constant reconfiguation. After suffering an ACL tear in the first round of the playoffs his return date has shifted from January, to February, and most recently March, keeping him out for the vast majority of the 2012-2013 season. The Bulls are in huge trouble without Rose, and there have been mixed signals about exactly whether the Bulls think they have a shot at the 2013 season. But owner Jerry Reinsdorf made one thing clear this week, the Bulls are not going to rush the 2011 MVP back. From ESPN Chicago: "I'm not going to let him back until the doctors tell me that it's absolutely safe for him to come back," Reinsdorf said on ESPN 1000's "Talking Baseball" on Saturday. "I made that mistake with Michael Jordan years ago where I think we let him come back too soon. It worked out OK, but it might not have. This time I'm not going to make that mistake. Until the doctors say he's 100 percent and they put their reputations on the line, he's not coming back." via Jerry Reinsdorf says Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose won't be rushed back from knee surgery - ESPN Chicago.
Well, I'm sure Matt Moore has the best of intentions, but he provides no quotes regarding that shifting timeline, and my time is in the middle of the three months he throws out there, so, still not unreasonable. And the strongest evidence that his return date is later is Reinsdorf's statement that no way will he let Rose come back too soon, which undercuts your implication that the Bulls are nuttily thinking about rushing him back. So, yeah, if he's not ready, he won't come back, and the Bulls will wait till next year. But I bet he's ready by mid to end of February.
I think they're nuts to rush him back. I didn't suggest they would rush him back, I suggested they'd maybe let him play a few games toward the end of the season if the Bulls have a legitimate playoff team. Otherwise, they're far better off letting him sit out the entire year and spend all the time rehabbing from February until next season when they can retool the roster. I thought I made that clear? What I really think is that once Rose does take the floor, it's going to be another season or even longer before he's willing to go 110%, and even then he may not be the same player. I remember Vince Carter having surgery on his knee (in 2002). He went from being a high flying dunker (a lot like MJ, IMO) to a much more timid player. His scoring went from 27.6 PPG pre-injury to 22.5 PPG the year after his recovery. His FG% went from .460 to .417 as well, and he shot 1 less FTA per game. Jamal Crawford went from being a .476 shooter to .413 the year after he suffered a torn ACL. Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson both saw significant declines in their output after their torn ACL surgeries. Other NBA players with torn ACL and surgeries include Nenad Krstic, Michael Redd, and Josh Howard. That's not to say he's not going to come back at 100% and never skip a beat. It is to say there's reason for concern and no reason to push it. On top of it all, Rose was hurt in a game that was decided for us by 20 points and he probably shouldn't have been on the court (to prevent the very injury he suffered). Similarly, playing him at near the end of the season with as lame a supporting cast as the Bulls have put together in the off-season only risks reinjury without any real reward for taking the risk. A final thought is that if the Bulls expected he could really come back in February, they might well have kept this team together or tinkered only on the edges. They led the league in wins without Rose much of the time and a gimpy Deng. They could well keep the Bulls in the playoff chase (for top seed even) until Rose could come back, and we'd have the team (and healthy!) that some of us thought could take Miami for the playoffs.
