As good as Beasley may be, I don't see him putting up those kinds of numbers with Wade and Marion commanding so much of the load. Granted that their talent level is pretty shallow after that, averaging a double double like that is very uncommon for a rookie as young as Beasley.
Yes. If the Heat can keep those two healthy AND if they can avoid going tits-up in terms of record early in the year (therefore keeping the veterans interested) I don't know that Beasely is going to have a very big chance at 20ppg. Ed O.
The Wizards had at least two seasons where their big 3 were healthy and all three scored 20 PPG or close to it, even with Arenas challenging for the scoring title. I think it's possible for Beasley if he wows people right off the bat in the regular season.
Yeah, but those guys were all vets. I could see Marion and Wade going for 20, but not Beasley. I didn't watch much Beasley at K state, was he a volume shooter?
Roughly 26.5 PPG on 17.5 FGA. An NBA team gets about 85 FGA/game. A player needs about 15 FGA to average 20 PPG. Leaves 70 FGA for Arenas (say 20-25) and Marion (another 20-25) - those 20/25 numbers are way up there. Still leaves 20 FGA for... Haslim? Who else do they have? That's my figuring on it.
I don't see the Heat having the pace to support three volume scorers. The Wizards had a low pace this year, but they have been in the top seven the last other couple of years, and without Arenas's injury where he missed almost all year AND Butler's, where he missed a third of the season, I doubt they are able to get so close to 20 ppg with such a low pace. Last year the Heat had a similarly low pace, and I don't think Spoelstra is going to unleash the hounds, either. Ed O.
Yeah, but you're leaving off bench players. I don't know enough about the Heat to really talk about their offense, but I'd figure Wade gets at least 20, Marion maybe 15-20. I could see it as being possible for Beasley to get 20 a game, but I still think it's highly unlikely.
BTW, Wade took 18 FGA last season in his 51 games, and Marion took about 13 per game. Miami took 77 FGA/game as a team last season.
Bad teams can generate more possessions even without superstars. Looking at the Heat pace from the past several years, it looks like a systematic issue, not one of personnel (and note: Nate and the Blazers, unfortunately, have been in the same boat); 2007-08: 90.2 pace (22nd of 30 teams) 2006-07: 89.9 pace (25th of 30 teams) 2005-06: 91.6 pace (11th of 30 teams) They still had some Van Gundy in them, IMO, and SVG had them 14th the year before. I guess we'll see. It's not IMPOSSIBLE that the Heat will be more uptempo than they have been the last couple of years, or even that if they're slow that all three guys could get 20ppg (or close to it) while healthy. I just don't find it to be as likely as if Beasely were on, say, the Grizzlies or the Pacers. Ed O.
Even at the same pace, there's plenty of shots for Beasley. Last season at 77 FGA, Ricky Davis manages 12 FGA - all his shots would probably go to Beasley. Unless he shoots some horrible percentage, he could get his 20/game with just 3 more FGA from somewhere. Also, the Heat's pace has been slow because they had Shaq, and they liked to run the shot clock down to keep games close. Shaq's gone, no need to wait for him to lumber up the court and get set up in the post.
Wade missed 31 games. Shaq+Marion only played in 49, combined. While Ricky Davis got 12 FGAs, he also played in many games where he was the first offensive option because both Shaq/Marion and Wade were unavailable. In the situation that I am discussing--no major injuries to Wade or Marion and the team is contending for a playoff spot--I am not convinced that there will be room for Beasely to get that many shots. Riley hasn't had many up-tempo teams since leaving LA, and Spoelstra only has worked for East coast Riley. Some coaches are just predisposed to slowing the game down (see: Nate McMillan) irrespective of personnel and I would be surprised if Spoelstra is NOT like this, given his reportedly similar-to-Riley philosophy. We'll see. Ed O.
I think it will be Mayo. ROY is all about ppg for some reason, and Oden just wont get that many touches. I dont think Beasley will either with Wade and Marion taking up so many shots.
While you make good points, I dont think you can look at anything the Heat did last year as indicitive of this year.
True, but the Heat didn't have Wade last year and Wade is the focal point of that offense. Rarely do you see a third option average 20+ points... The Bucks did it with Cassell, Ray Allen, and Glenn Robinson, I think.
