Scouting Prospects for Warriors

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by Shapecity, Mar 31, 2005.

  1. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    May,in terms of how mock draft are seeing him is underrated,but there are not a lot of good,strong,and taller college players for him to face. The guy plays with excellent fundamentals and a lot of passion,which gives him a big plus over others who have poor fundamentals and seem to reserve their passion for other situations. If you watch how May works to box out for a rebound,or uses strategy to get his shot up-and draw the foul,it's sweet. Sheldon Williams has pretty much the same stuff. The joke is that both will get shafted on draft day-this year or next on the basis of one or two inches,Physically Chris Taft is only ONE INCH taller,same weight as May and S Williams,but only half the player. Don't get me started on the Euro teens who,for now,ain't close to Taft. Odds are at least one young import will turn into a real quality player-but nobody knows which,since none have the credentials
     
  2. Endym

    Endym JBB JustBBall Member

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    REREM, what about Diogu?

    How does he compare to May? Who is taller, who is better rebounder and defender? I have read Diogu is probably the most skilled bigman in NCAA after Bogut. I have read Diogu has enough quickness, athleticism and range to play PF but can May play PF?
     
  3. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    May is an inch taller and 5-10 lb heavier but Diogu has more quickness and range. Relative to everyone seen as draft possibles,both of these guys rate very high as rebounders and defenders,areas where playing with strength and desire are very important. May,from all I see, is at least an 80% bet to return to UNC,I'm not expecting he will even test the market,while Ike entered but kept the option to pull out. May might not be the ideal PF for a real run+gun team as is but I expect him to drop a few more pounds,tone up a bit,which will make him a bit quicker. He showed the work ethic,the passion,of a guy who will do what it takes,in a game,in practice,in off-season training. I really like that. Diogu also plays with passion and has paid dues to improve his skills,he surprised me by having a pretty nice 3pt shot this year,something that was not in his tool box earlier. If May was only 1" taller,everyone would be ranking him as a strong C prospect. Had he matched up v Chris Taft,May would have schooled Taft,no question. Likewise,Diogu would have easily dominated Rudy Gay or Marvin Williams,kids with big futures but without all the polish or the tough,gritty mindset. 6-9 is generally seen as a PF,but with there being few real heavy duty 7-0 guys,a guy like May might actually play a lot of C in the NBA
     
  4. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    The draft-and this likely is the case in the NFL too,is much anticipated,and while mock drafts can be way off on what a guy's prospects are ulimately worth,Scouts and GM's have to envision what the consensus seems to be as to where other teams are rating a guy. An example. I really see Salim Stoudamire as a guy who will be a real good NBA player,probably a point G,and further I see him as just about on an even level with Chris Paul and R Felton. Paul seems a CONSENSUS top 5,Felton a top 10,Salim is seldom mentioned as a top 20. To me,the plan would be get a pick in the right area to get Salim as a bargain,not so low as to be a few slots too late. Diogu is a similar case,but with him the spread of opinion is real wide for now. Some mocks have him in the 20-25 area,which seems way off. I expect NBA teams are thinking he's 10-15,and a few have him top 10. I think he'd be a good pick even as a top 5. As the W's seem to be on a real roll,they may slip a bit further,in draft position,and what that can mean is they lose the possibility of a trade down where they might pick up Diogu and another rd 1 guy I'd want. I do have some good hopes that where the W's pick,Diogu or Danny Granger can be had. If he enters,Sheldon Williams is another guy I see as a late lottery steal. The W's dropping to the 7-9 area in the draft might be a hidden blessing as it could eliminate a temptation to grab Matynas Andri-whatever,Chris Taft,Vasquez,Petro,or another high risk project. I like to not only envision the best case scenario-but also the worst case scenario when looking at draft prospects,and that favors guys who displayed a productive,well rounded game at a major college level. Taking a gamble on a player who shows star quality-yet still has questions is not entirely bad,but I don't want to base it on second hand rumors. Gerald Green is I guy in whom I have seen enough superstar tools to feel his chances are very good,even if his game is not fully polished and his work ethic is not a proven thing. Many of the Euro teens are basically part time minor league players who,I guess looked real good in semi-pro youth leagues,can put togather some highlight clips,but,beyond that what does anyone know? Even if I flew to Europe and watched,how do I compare the caliber of players to an ACC game? I know a player who is a Calif. JC all State,a stocky 6-3 F who can,in JC, get 10+ boards,hit50%+ on 3's,score 20-40 pts. I told him,If you were 6" taller you'd be a real pro prospect,he smiles and said,If I was 6" taller I'd be in the NBA now. Instead he's going to look to drop about 15lb,get quicker,and be a goood div 1 2-guard. The point is vs JC players he dominates. He'd star vs a team of Italian or Lituanian teens-but he's got to make some adjustments to shine at a big time college program where he may be up against Kansas or Kentucky. In this Draft there are a number of imports who MIGHT turn out to be very good and might never be as good as Tshikavili,who has yet to establish that he has more than a borderline NBA game.
     
  5. Endym

    Endym JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">Many of the Euro teens are basically part time minor league players who,I guess looked real good in semi-pro youth leagues,can put togather some highlight clips,but,beyond that what does anyone know? Even if I flew to Europe and watched,how do I compare the caliber of players to an ACC game? </div>
    You are wrong here, most Euro teens (i'm talking about 2005/2006 prospects like Splitter, Aleksandorv, Andriuskevicius, Petro etc) are playing in their club first team. But the problem is that they don't get enough PT to really shine because they are not better than the veterans who are getting PT. Even if they are as good as guys who get more PT in their position, its very obvious that coach will trust experienced veteran more than a young player who makes mistakes.

    Some guys are getting playtime - players like Fernandez and Vasquez are starters, Splitter is first substitude and usualy gets 15-20min per game, but Andriuskevicius only gets about 3-5min per game (in Euroleague) because he is not good enough for more.

    btw good little interview with Andriuskevicius coach is at
    http://www.draftcity.com/dcdaily.php?p=268

    To compare better NCAA divisions to European leagues? I don't know, but NCAA is U23 basketball. I think it's fair to assume that Euroleague is much better than ACC, while stronger domestic leagues like Italy and Spain are stronger than ACC.
     
  6. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    I look at the ACC,the weaker teams mostly have a legit draft prospect,while the top teams have 3 or 4,with maybe more as starters move on and underclassmen gain minutes. A few Euro teams appear to have one or two prospects,but in recent years the top talent has migrated to the NBA,so 95% of players are guys the NBA folks have seen and have not considered to be NBA talent. The guys we see in mocks,like NBA Draft.net,are almost all quite young,and many have only a few games where they scored 10pt or had enough production to establish what abilities they have. I don't want to be condescending in saying that Euro ball is minor league,but it is a way to put it in perspective. US college players who do not get drafted,maybe don't even get a look,go to Europe and often are the stars. Most players are Europeans who the NBA has not skimmed off,they have rounded out their game,matured,but now there is no reason to expect them to turn into more than they are. Logically,if you take the most promising non-US 19+18yr old players,as a group,there should be at least 4 or 5 who eventually can be NBA players-but which ones? The supply/demand factor is such that the NBA teams are often eager to add a good TALL player,6-10,or more. Meanwhile,the reality is that big men develop slower. Often a player who had a fairly good college career,but not a great one,rides the bench 2,3,4 seasons before getting to the point where he is much of an asset. Some of these Euro-teens are more like a college freshman who,on a rather average team,have not earned a major role yet. However,the sense is that if an NBA team were to wait,someone else would grab him and MAYBE in time,have a guy who could be big time. Maybe. My view is that guys are getting projected round 1 based on little more than a fantasy,a crapshoot guess that some kid not yet skilled enogh to make an impact in the CBA,will have the drive and motivation to develop into a quality NBA player. From they perspective of a guy like Petro,why not grab the big $$$$ if it's there? For a late drafting team,a raw import who MIGHT prove to be good 3 yr later makes some sense. I just don't see it as that rational for a team to pass up a sure thing at pick 5 or 10,for a raffle ticket that might not be worth anything.
     
  7. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Now's your chance REREM to check out some of these young future international and domestic stars. They're showing the Nike Hoop Summit (USA vs. the World) on FSN. If any of these young guys go to college here like Bogut did, and proved themselves both at the collegiate and international level their draft stock will definitely be there. But I can see what you mean about internationals trying to go for the money. Petro could possibly be Jerome Moiso part II.

    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">2005 USA Men's Junior National Select Team

    12 Jon Brockman F 6-8 245 17
    Snohomish / Snohomish, WA / *Washington
    6 Monta Ellis G 6-4 185 19
    Lanier / Jackson, MS / *Mississippi State
    9 Gerald Green G 6-8 200 19
    Gulf Shores Academy / Houston, TX / *Oklahoma state
    14 Tyler Hansbrough F 6-9 240 19
    Popular Bluff / Popular Bluff, IA / *North Carolina
    15 Richard Hendrix F/C 6-9 255 18
    Athens / Athens, AL / *Alabama
    4 Greg Paulus G 6-2 183 18
    Christian Brothers Academy / Manlius, NY / *Duke
    8 J.P. Prince F 6-7 195 17
    White Station / Memphis, TN / *Arizona
    11 Martell Webster G 6-8 230 18
    Seattle Prep / Seattle, WA / *Washington
    5 Louis Williams G 6-3 186 18
    South Gwinnett / Snellville, GA / *Georgia
    13 Julian Wright F 6-9 215 17
    Homewood-Flossmoor / Chicago Heights, IL / *Kansas

    *Indicates college where the player has signed a National Letter of Intent

    2005 WORLD SELECT TEAM ROSTER

    NAME POS HGT WGT HOME COUNTRY CCURRENT TEAM
    Nemanja Aleksandrov F 6-10 210 Serbia/M KK Reflex
    Marco Belinelli G 6-7 190 Italy Fortitudo Skipper Bologna (Italy)
    Eric Boateng C 6-11 225 England St. Andrew?s School (DE)/*Duke
    Vilmantas Dilys F/C 6-11 Lithuania Zalgris Kaunas (Lithuania)
    Semih Erden C 7-0 240 Turkey Partisan Belgrade (Serbia&Montenegro)
    Adam Gibson G 6-1 Australia Tasmanian Inst. of Sport (Australia)
    Ian Mahinmi F 6-10 230 France STB Le Havre (France)
    Michael Mokongo G 5-11 France ES Chalon-Sur-Saone (France)
    Martynas Pocius G 6-4 185 Lithuania Holderness (Plymouth, NH)/*Duke
    Dusan Sakota F 6-11 Greece Panathinaikos Athens (Greece)
    </div>
     
  8. upsidedownside7

    upsidedownside7 JBB JustBBall Member

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    2 more Petro videos

    The good people of warriorsworld.net found this link http://www.johanpetro.net/site.php?lg=_GB
    There are 3 videos in the gallery and I already posted one of them a while back where Petro takes 4 steps. In last year's draft this kid got a promise from Utah, Denver and San Antonio last year near the 20's but pulled out. Kid is a prospect.
     
  9. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    He looks really good in that raw kind of way. He had a nice post up shot on that skinny center.
     
  10. Endym

    Endym JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">I look at the ACC,the weaker teams mostly have a legit draft prospect,while the top teams have 3 or 4,with maybe more as starters move on and underclassmen gain minutes. A few Euro teams appear to have one or two prospects,but in recent years the top talent has migrated to the NBA,so 95% of players are guys the NBA folks have seen and have not considered to be NBA talent.</div>
    You have to understand that NBA game is much more athletic, game and rules are different. European basketball is more a team game, NBA is more isolation and 1vs1, 2vs2 etc. I enjoy both.

    Also i'm sure 20-30 players who play in Europe, maybe more, can play in NBA and play good. Look at Bulls Nocioni, he was not a superstar in Europe and he is doing quite ok in NBA. Or player like Dion Glover who was not good in Europe, was waived in December and now is playing some minutes in Spurs. European team Benetton played against Raptors in preseason and only lost by 1 point, i know that it was Raptors 2nd game but i'm sure Benetton was not in good shape either. I'm sure best teams in Europe like CSKA and Maccabi can (doesn't mean they will) beat NBA teams.
    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">I just don't see it as that rational for a team to pass up a sure thing at pick 5 or 10,for a raffle ticket that might not be worth anything.</div>
    Agree 100% [​IMG]
     
  11. Endym

    Endym JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">Now's your chance REREM to check out some of these young future international and domestic stars. They're showing the Nike Hoop Summit (USA vs. the World) on FSN.</div>
    Only top European prospect in this game would have been Nemanja, but he is injured. Top prospect like Petro, Andriuskevicius, Splitter and many other were not in this game because basketball season is not over in Europe.
     
  12. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    I missed the first part of that game,they may do a replay. The Euro point G,headed to Duke,is good. The tall Euro's are not ripe yet,too light,soft. Maybe next year could get to a rd 1 level. It was another look at some of the US HS guys,Webster has enough to be at the edge of the lottery. There are a number of VETERAN Euro/International players who definitely could play NBA,but are guys who'd be backups,some getting minutes,some getting rust. In Europe they get as much money and get to be stars. The NBA folks seem to figure they already skimmed off the more skilled talent and the focus has gone to the international version of high school prospects,college freshmen,where teams are gambling they can mold very raw talent into quality players.
    Gasol,Yao,Nene and most other imports currently doing well in the NBA were on National teams,Olympic teams,were standout Euro ball players. With them already in the NBA,and foreign veteran players having been passed on in previous drafts,even the better prospects,such as Splitter seem unlikely to make much of an impact for a couple of years. Others like Petro can do enough to provide some good looking highlights,but that would be the case for every HS kid in the McDonald's game and a couple dozen players of all sorts who are not on anyone's round 2 list. If the Bobcats want to take a gamble with their pick-fine. I think few of the touted Euros will go quite as high as some mocks show because the chances of a pick who never develops enough to be a plus are too high. Petro will go somewhere in rd 1 only because of a lack of C prospects. He at least,has natural athletic tools and bulk enough. Some others,though tall,are light,not strong,don't play at all tough inside and being 6-10 is not such a big deal if you can't cut it at the 4+5 roles and are borderline athletic as a 3. I figure when its draft day,and you see Felton or Simien,Granger,Diogu,Frye and some import who MAYBE will develop,you probably play it safe
     
  13. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Endym:</div><div class="quote_post">Only top European prospect in this game would have been Nemanja, but he is injured. Top prospect like Petro, Andriuskevicius, Splitter and many other were not in this game because basketball season is not over in Europe.</div>
    Gotcha. The international team could have used Aleksandrov's scoring. A lot of these guys are good enough to be college stars, but the NBA, who knows? I kind of like Mokongo's quicks and Pocious' shooting. I liked what I saw from the U.S. team though. There was a couple of guys that I had my eye on. It was our point guard Greg Paulus and guard/forward Martel Webster. Everyone else I couldn't even remember. Was Gerald Green even playing? I was only half watching.
     
  14. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">I missed the first part of that game,they may do a replay. The Euro point G,headed to Duke,is good. The tall Euro's are not ripe yet,too light,soft. Maybe next year could get to a rd 1 level. It was another look at some of the US HS guys,Webster has enough to be at the edge of the lottery. There are a number of VETERAN Euro/International players who definitely could play NBA,but are guys who'd be backups,some getting minutes,some getting rust. In Europe they get as much money and get to be stars. The NBA folks seem to figure they already skimmed off the more skilled talent and the focus has gone to the international version of high school prospects,college freshmen,where teams are gambling they can mold very raw talent into quality players.
    Gasol,Yao,Nene and most other imports currently doing well in the NBA were on National teams,Olympic teams,were standout Euro ball players. With them already in the NBA,and foreign veteran players having been passed on in previous drafts,even the better prospects,such as Splitter seem unlikely to make much of an impact for a couple of years. Others like Petro can do enough to provide some good looking highlights,but that would be the case for every HS kid in the McDonald's game and a couple dozen players of all sorts who are not on anyone's round 2 list. If the Bobcats want to take a gamble with their pick-fine. I think few of the touted Euros will go quite as high as some mocks show because the chances of a pick who never develops enough to be a plus are too high. Petro will go somewhere in rd 1 only because of a lack of C prospects. He at least,has natural athletic tools and bulk enough. Some others,though tall,are light,not strong,don't play at all tough inside and being 6-10 is not such a big deal if you can't cut it at the 4+5 roles and are borderline athletic as a 3. I figure when its draft day,and you see Felton or Simien,Granger,Diogu,Frye and some import who MAYBE will develop,you probably play it safe</div> Well when it comes to the draft, it's hit or miss. Which player would be useful in a mismatch physically as well as fundamentally and not be labeled a ball hog? I would love to go with a true banger like Shelden Williams that can rebound, block shots, pass, and finish with either hand and if there's nobody that likes to play in the paint on both ends with authoritah then I'd say Tiago Splitter. I know we have Biedrins, but Splitter is different in that he's got better shot mechanics to play on the perimeter if needed and play inside. Also he's had international experience (purportedly more than Nene or Varejao according to hoopshype.com) He's also got sound understanding of team defense as well as one-on-one defense because of his lateral quickness and basketball IQ (draftcity.net). He's considered by many to be a Pau Gasol clone with a defensive game and I'm a big fan of Pau Gasol despite his faults (turnovers/defense). If they have a prospect who the consensus tout as being defensively sound as well as offensively, I say we snatch him up. Even that 7'2 center I'd like to have, but I wouldn't want him now because he gets owned by other Euro centers and isn't quite ready. He has looked great in garbage time though. He moves well for a 7'2 guy and could be a great power and finesse guy with time.
     
  15. oaktank88

    oaktank88 JBB JustBBall Member

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    a couple guys who i really think we should take a look at in the 2nd round are Will Conroy of Washington and Chuck Hayes of Kentucky, They both are very hard workers who i think would pan out well in the NBA, and both have NBA bodies, although we already have too many forwards so Hayes may not be of much use, but Conroy could be a great backup PG who is very unselfish
     
  16. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    Perhaps if I saw Splitter play a few games,I just see stats that say not ready for prime time---though decent potential,probably ahead of most of the tall Euros. The reviews on various sites are all over the place,though they agree he runs well,is not a 3pt threat,is a bit raw inside. Splitter seems to fit as a PF. If he was a C,I'd give serious t
    hought. As is,we'd have about the same chance of remaking Murph or Zarko into a C.

    As to Green,he wasn't there,I'm pretty sure.Very impressive guy,jumps,hits 3's like J Rich or Vince Carter,about an inch taller,very good hands. Assuming he is motivated to be a great all around player, he can be an all-star. Generally,I see I Diogu as a 20-10 college player capable of becoming a 20-10 pro,but as significant,he will be pretty solid,very soon, AT LEAST. The worst case scenario on a lot of guys looks like Shika
     
  17. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Hi guys,

    Briefly popping on here to share some thoughts on my favorite Warriors topic: the draft. (sorry for not posting more often, working a lot and being in Iowa now has really thrown me out of the loop.)

    Let's get the important stuff out of the way first, Villanueava doesn't have eyebrows because he doesn't have any hair at all. He's got Alopecia Areata, a disease that causes hair loss at a young age.

    As for what the Warriors should do with the pick, I still think the best thing to do is trade it, either package it with Fisher for cap relief and a back up pg or a future pick (a la Phoenix last year trading their pick to Chicago).

    The team has great chemistry right now and has proven that their current roster can win games. Why rock the boat by drafting a young prospect, especially one that thinks he's ready for big minutes right away? With that in mind, I think it would be a huge mistake to draft a guy like Warrick, Diagou, or Frye. None of these guys are difference makers, none have tremendous upside, and none can do anything considerably better than anyone on the Warriors' current roster.

    Sure it's true that the Warriors need a low post scorer and they'd love to have a guy who can both score and defend in the low post. But a recent 8 game winning streak tells me that they're capable of winning without one. I also firmly believe that there isn't anyone in the draft that is a better prospect, both offensively and defensively, than Biedrins.

    But if Mullin decides to keep the pick, I'd prefer he take a risk on a young prospect. I'll give you two reasons why: 1) he won't take minutes away from the current 8 man rotation and 2) if everything goes like Stern wants it (and all signs are pointing that way) the NBDL is going to be expanded into a true minor league over the next couple of years.

    It will be a 15 team league with each team acting as a farm system for two NBA teams. Once that's in place a team will be able to develop their prospects for a few years in the D league, where they're getting game experience, and bring them up when they're ready. That would take a lot of risk out of taking a flier on a pick, or at the very least take some of the sting out of taking a guy who turns out to be a bust.

    I'd much rather have that then take a guy like Taft, Warrick, Williams, Diagou, or anyone else that doesn't really fit what the Warriors need, but they take him just to take a guy.

    So, with all that said, assuming the Warriors are picking in the 8-11 range, the guys I'd like them to choose between are Splitter, Petro, Green, and Aleksandrov. I think those are the guys with the most potential not named Paul, Bogut, or Andriuskevicius.
     
  18. Kwan1031

    Kwan1031 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Ahh, you are missing a good time [​IMG]. Hope you can at least watch the game.

    For the first time in a while, we can afford doing whatever we want with the pick. If we want to package the pick to remove salary or future pick, we can do that. If we want to go for a home run by selecting raw talent, we can do that as well. But, I can also live with the player who has a marginal talent without much upside, if he can defend the middle like foyle. Even during our 8 game winning streaks, we gave up one too many pts to role playing big mans, and just imagine how much better we can be, if we can somehow contain the middle. As much as I like us to go for a home run, If we can solve the problem via draft, so be it...
     
  19. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    As our draft slot has slipped,chances of getting Green are gone unless we get pingponged to a top 3. If it's a draft for potential,Green scores very high,yet he is so good in some areas,he looks pretty good if you want a boost next year. Look up stats on Diogu,S Williams,D. Granger. All are guys with 9-11 rbd per,with good shotblock/steals numbers and scorer skills. I like Diogu especially because he can be our best Defensive F,he scores inside,outside,gets to the line a lot,plays with intelligence,intensity and power. He'd been listed around 255,245 is about right,which is why he was much quicker this year. What I saw,watching him play,was a guy with major talent in every area,relevant to a forward. I saw enough team attitude and versatility I am sure he can mesh.
    I like the farm team concept,though,ultimately there are a great many factors,in my opinion,that favor getting a developing player real NBA minutes. I have played chess with friends who won't live long enough to beat me-but they learn things. I learn when I play a better player. Ultimately,learning the quirks of NBA refs,the tendecies of teammates,what it's like to play against the best-that's what a guy can't get in practice,or in the minor leagues.
     
  20. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post">Hi guys,
    Briefly popping on here to share some thoughts on my favorite Warriors topic: the draft. (sorry for not posting more often, working a lot and being in Iowa now has really thrown me out of the loop.)

    Let's get the important stuff out of the way first, Villanueava doesn't have eyebrows because he doesn't have any hair at all. He's got Alopecia Areata, a disease that causes hair loss at a young age.
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    Hey welcome back Walk, it's always a pleasure to have you around. Now that you mention the hair loss disease, I feel like such an ignorant heel. But after seeing some kids go around shaving their eyebrows on purpose, I figured it was for style. That and the light jokes I read in scouting reports about "needing eyebrows and a defensive game" was a knock on V's sense of fashion. I feel bad though for being so insensitive and jumping to conclusions. [​IMG]

    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post">
    As for what the Warriors should do with the pick, I still think the best thing to do is trade it, either package it with Fisher for cap relief and a back up pg or a future pick (a la Phoenix last year trading their pick to Chicago).

    The team has great chemistry right now and has proven that their current roster can win games. Why rock the boat by drafting a young prospect, especially one that thinks he's ready for big minutes right away? With that in mind, I think it would be a huge mistake to draft a guy like Warrick, Diagou, or Frye. None of these guys are difference makers, none have tremendous upside, and none can do anything considerably better than anyone on the Warriors' current roster.

    Sure it's true that the Warriors need a low post scorer and they'd love to have a guy who can both score and defend in the low post. But a recent 8 game winning streak tells me that they're capable of winning without one. I also firmly believe that there isn't anyone in the draft that is a better prospect, both offensively and defensively, than Biedrins.

    But if Mullin decides to keep the pick, I'd prefer he take a risk on a young prospect. I'll give you two reasons why: 1) he won't take minutes away from the current 8 man rotation and 2) if everything goes like Stern wants it (and all signs are pointing that way) the NBDL is going to be expanded into a true minor league over the next couple of years.

    It will be a 15 team league with each team acting as a farm system for two NBA teams. Once that's in place a team will be able to develop their prospects for a few years in the D league, where they're getting game experience, and bring them up when they're ready. That would take a lot of risk out of taking a flier on a pick, or at the very least take some of the sting out of taking a guy who turns out to be a bust.

    I'd much rather have that then take a guy like Taft, Warrick, Williams, Diagou, or anyone else that doesn't really fit what the Warriors need, but they take him just to take a guy.

    So, with all that said, assuming the Warriors are picking in the 8-11 range, the guys I'd like them to choose between are Splitter, Petro, Green, and Aleksandrov. I think those are the guys with the most potential not named Paul, Bogut, or Andriuskevicius.</div>
    You know I like those picks (Splitter, Petro, Green, I heard Aleksandrov wasn't very impressive, but has the potential to be the next Vladmir Radmanovic/Peja Stojakavic lights out shooter). Even if we don't use them, I'm sure they'll make great trade bait based on potential alone. I'm sure those are huge reasons why teams who want to draft a potential star go for the real dangerous picks because of what's to gain, rather than what's to lose. You don't know what you're going to get in terms of immediate or future impact, but you can at least see a player who has the tools to dominate or at least be a favorable mismatch against other teams.

    I still argue we need low post presence + defensive presence to take over when Murphy sits, somebody who can at least draw some double teams and hit 50% in the paint. I guarantee teams like the Sonics who don't have a traditional power forwards will find out the hard way how different playoff ball is. You need a winning formula to somehow protect the paint and find some way to score when those long range shots aren't falling... Especially when your guys aren't quick/clever/organized enough to lose their man moving off the ball or with the ball. REREM advocates Sheldon Williams/Diagu as an underrated big man that posess strong fundamentals and a lot of strength with decent mobility. I still see upside in players like those who have the footwork and coordination to move with all that bulk, create separation on their man and get constantly fouled/doubled because other bigs can't stay with them. Oh and it's important that they pass too lest they become a big one dimensional player like Zach Randolph (I mean Murph could probably be just as impressive on boards and learning some up and under moves). There's definitely risk in winding up with some overweight stub that could play like Marcus Fizer or just get smoked in transition or inside guarding quicker players, but we got a couple of those guys to choose from that could be above average on both ends of the floor. If we think about Taft, Diogu, Sheldon Williams, or maybe even Johan Petro (Dampier? better hands?). I think Splitter will probably go way before we get a chance to pick him, but I like the way Splitter sounds on paper and I've been impressed with what Brazil is throwing out there in terms of prospects: Nene, Varejao, and Barbosa. [​IMG]

    Also 2nd rounders? You know we have two of them this year?
     

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