I was joking buddy. I didn't realize until now that our exchange got to the point where there was some bitterness. I have no malice towards you at all. I really don't think anything of you. I guess I'm used to using the statistics, What stats are you using because most of the stats across the board show Ariza to be a mediocre player. You do know 15 PER is the average? I'm sure my mind is prone to cognitive biases You're sure? I hope I don't detect sarcasm because it's a universal fact that humans are prone to cognitive biases. I didn't say I was excluded from cognitive biases, but you only using the eyeball test is a flawed way at looking at players. Use both your eyes and objective evidence. Apparently you haven't been doing that. Oh btw my name is John Hollinger glad to meet you.
Lol, no I wasn't being sarcastic, and yes I know 15 is average. I guess I didn't articulate my point very well because you are taking my eyeball test comment the wrong way. Anyway, nice to meet you Mr Hollinger. Go Blazers!
You articulated it fine, and I'm not taking it the wrong way, you said you only use the eyeball test to evaluate players, now I know your logic for wanting Ariza is flawed. You have what they call in the biz -Confirmation Bias- which is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. This is a clear cut case. Next time try using something called triangulation, it will help you more when scouting players from now on. But yes Go Blazers!
If I said "I only use the eyeball test to evaluate players" then I was lying. I apologize for saying that about Ariza when I was trying to get away from the Outlaw PER discussion. I do appreciate the job tips. I'm sure my boss will be trilled to know I've grown as an employee over the weekend. Is there a criteria you would be willing to set evaluate who ends up being better between Ariza and Batum? Maybe something we can look at a year from now? Obviously to know for sure, we'll have to wait until all is said and done. Is a year not enough time because Ariza has more experience? I'm open to your ideas.
Okay, apparently you haven't been listening. My whole argument was not whether Batum will be better than Ariza. My argument was is it worth it to use cap space to bring in Ariza. And my answer was an emphatic, No. Do I believe Batum can be a better player? Of course. I already think he's not really that far behind him. I've been trying to say I'd WAY rather go after other free agents. I think players like Miller, Hedo, or even Artest would be better options. I'll bite, I'll say in two years Batum will be better. I don't know how to quantify it because any stat can be flawed, but we'll use a combination of stats and our own judgment and make our own cases for why we think each other is better, and we'll let others choose. In two years we'll meet back. That's if I even remember or we're both even here. Okay, take care now, bye bye then.
screw Ariza... I have zero interest whatsoever in seeing POR sign that guy.... Same goes for Odom....a more talented version of Outlaw (same IQ though)....
Good question. The answer lies in the numbers. Buss' history is to pay and still make a hefty profit. Looking at the last decade or so, he's been willing to pay luxury tax but unwilling to make a profit of less than $20 million a year. 2007-08 saw him pay out $78 million for player salaries ($72.9 to players and $5.1 in tax), while turning a $47.9 million profit. For 2008-09, he'll pay out about $85.3 million for player salaries ($78.2 to players and $7.1 in tax). He should still make nearly $40 million in profit, even with a slight drop in revenue. But you're suggesting that he'll re-sign both Ariza and Odom, pay out about $117.0 million for player salaries ($93.5 million to players and $23.5 in tax) and see his profit go down to single digits? Uh-uh. I don't buy it for one minute. Not when he can 'get away' with signing one of them and save himself $12-16 million in salary and tax.
Ah, okay, thanks. In past free agent threads, people were saying Ariza was restricted, I thought. Unfortunately, I guess it doesn't make a difference. LA can match any offered deal using Bird rights and Ariza is unlikely to want to go to another team for the same money. He went to UCLA and supposedly likes LA and the Lakers are a top team. So it basically still comes down to whether the Lakers choose to match an offer or not.
Some more uninformed idiots who think Ariza would be a great fit in Portland And this article mentions Ariza when comparing similarities to the Lakers and Blazers: Link
Really? A guy who scores 8 ppg and shoots 31% from 3pt is "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be"? Plus, Ariza has not shown the ability to initiate his own offense. I realize that part of that is because of who he plays with, but he didn't really show that ability in New York. He's a great energy guy, but not "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be". First Hedo, then Ariza, who is the next role player that the Blazers "need" to overpay?
Pretty much. He shot lights out from 3pt in the playoffs, but he's really a career 30% shooter who runs the break well and has moments of playing good defense. He's a solid role player. Maybe that's what this team needs, but maybe Batum is already that player.
Ariza brings things to the court that I wish Outlaw did(overall basketball IQ, defense,) but he isn't what I hoped Outlaw would be. I'd still take him over Outlaw, but the Blazers can do better, and that will be Batum.
agree he is.. only problem is.. he's our starter. We will need an upgrade right now. not saying you feel differently. just talking lol
The key word in all of this is "overpay". If Hedo and Ariza take deals that reflect their true value, there is no reason for their current teams to let them go! If they are signed as FAs, it will be because some team is willing to pay *more* than their services are worth.
