I don't get this bashing of Stotts with respect to the development of the young players. How many players have overachieved vs underachieved expectations from the time of them joining the Blazers as a young player? Overachieved: -- Lillard -- CJ -- Nurk -- Harkless -- Jake Underachieved: -- Myers About as Expected: -- Zach (although I think it's still very early) -- Vonleh -- Swanigan -- Pat To-be Seen: -- Simons -- Skal Players like Turner, Aminu, Curry, Plumlee etc weren't really young when they joined, so I don't consider them in this discussion.
Among advanced stats I trust BPM and more-so RPM as long as you have multiple years of data. Box score stats can't do much to measure defense. Overall, I don't think Kanter is in the same realm as Nurk. Defense is half the game. Nurk is by far our best defender. For a center, Kanter's defense sucks. I don't even think Kanter is necessarily better offensively when you take into account passing & screen setting. http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/9 Kanter's RPM has been negative each of the past four years. Nurk is +4.15 this year. That's plus three points per 36 minutes which translates into about +8 wins over 82 games.
Harden is the best offensive player in the NBA. Nurk is around the top 5 centers in the NBA. So yes, Harden is harder to replace. But that doesn't matter. Put two Hardens on the floor at the same time and one of them is standing around meanwhile both have to play defense. Harden plus Nurk is better than Harden plus Harden.
Late to the party: 1) I would absolutely trade Nurk and CJ for Harden, but Houston wouldn't. #endDiscussion 2) Kanter has been ejected out of an entire country! 3) Would love to see the team keep Skal. 4) Would love to see Skal and Simons in the rotation next year (and ET, out). 5) Would love to see Collins make the vaunted 3rd year leap next year. Wow, I'd like to see a lot of stuff!
I don't need to root against Portland winning a championship - we won't win one, again. Post 1980, No small market team has won one without LBJ or TimmyD. We don't have that, and probably never will.
Kanter has barely learned the playbook yet...he does one thing at an elite level....offensive rebounding and putbacks...finishes at the rim. Nurk knows the playbook...has chemistry with the vets here...Kanter played with the bench until Nurk went down...Nurk is the better center...Kanter is good enough to sub in and keep us afloat...given a training camp and another year, Kanter might make a case for himself...he's a skilled big man..to me Nurk is our franchise starting center for many years to come.
Statistics? We talking Statistics? Man I'm talking Defense, Nurk is downright irreplaceable in that regard.
Love or hate or wherever in between on Stotts, the bashing has nothing to do with player progression (or at least thats a minimal part of it), its playoff record and adjustments in the playoffs. He, Dame, CJ figure out how to look good in the playoffs there will be fewer bashers.
Imagine if he grew another 4 inches. If he was 6'8 he'd have a chance at being the greatest Blazer ever.
Always said he developed players well, and that's why he's a better stopgap coach for a rebuilding team.
He's had 2 months, he better know the playbook by now... If he's barely learned it, then yikes. I believe youre quoting something from a month ago. He should know the system well by now.
Here is an analysis someone did of advanced stats. He calculated each stat's ability to predict the W/L record using this year's roster and last year's advanced stats. https://www.brianlefevre.com/advanced-stats-and-predicting-nba-wins/ The best pure advanced stat was a combination of RPM and BPM.
Was just having this discussion about Simons (not about him being the greatest ever, as that’s a lot to heap on a dude this early). But he could still grow more into his body, given his other measurements. I am shocked by what we saw in the Sacto game, but add 2-4” inches in height, which is not out of the realm of possibility given his age and “late-blooming” status, and the sky would be the limit for this kid (if it wasn’t already). The things he did the other night.... some of his passes with his long arms.... his shooting ability.... I am left dreaming of what could be with his talent.
