So NOW do you understand what I'm talking about??? We are a better team this year.

New guy here, and with all the talk of where people think this can is heading I thought I'd offer this up.

I've been doing a bit of work on some basic and advanced analytics in preparation for a larger project I'm working on and I thought some here might appreciate a piece of it.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dan.marang#!/vizhome/ExpectedvsDeliveredWinSOS/Dashboard1 just an interactive dashboard (which I need to update this week)

The crux of it where a team is vs where a team should be- and the outlook for the future (this season). Full disclosure- Vegas had the Blazers pegged at 26.5 - I put money down on the over but I wasn't THAT confident. After some cursory work I had them at 31-33 wins, at best. If you take a look at where Portland is now- 15-23 it's being discussed that they could make a playoff push. In a vacuum, that's probably true. But keep this in mind- if the cutoff for 8th is roughly 39 games (after some rough work I have it at 38 and some change) that means this team has to go 24-20 down the stretch. So a sub .400 team needs to go over .500 the rest of the season. In the realm of sports possibilities it's not probable- but not impossible either.

However, when you dig deeper you see that Portland has played the 9th/10th easiest schedule in the league while a team like the Jazz (in front of Portland) has played the 5th toughest and had a myriad of injuries- yet have managed to put together a better record. Flip that over to the backside of the season- one would assume that the Jazz would get healthy (minus Exum) and their schedule gets easier. Meanwhile- other than Lillard/Leonard injuries- the Blazers have been healthy, and their schedule it getting much more difficult. To further emphasize that point take a look at this stretch of games in March:

63 Fri, Mar 4, 2016
7:30p EST @ Toronto Raptors
64 Sun, Mar 6, 2016
6:00p EST @ Detroit Pistons
65 Tue, Mar 8, 2016
10:00p EST Washington Wizards
66 Fri, Mar 11, 2016
10:30p EST @ Golden State Warriors
67 Sat, Mar 12, 2016
10:30p EST Orlando Magic
68 Mon, Mar 14, 2016
8:00p EST @ Oklahoma City Thunder
69 Thu, Mar 17, 2016
8:30p EST @ San Antonio Spurs
70 Fri, Mar 18, 2016
8:00p EST @ New Orleans Pelicans
71 Sun, Mar 20, 2016
4:00p EST @ Dallas Mavericks
72 Wed, Mar 23, 2016
10:30p EST Dallas Mavericks
73 Thu, Mar 24, 2016
10:30p EST @ Los Angeles Clippers

That's 11 games in 20 days- 8 on the road 3 at home and almost entirely playoff teams. If the Blazers don't come out of that near .500 they need to make up those games somewhere else in the final stretch- meaning they need to play probably .650-.700 level ball to make up for that part of the schedule. Also, keep in mind that (not counting tonight) Portland still has to play GSW 4x, OKC 3x, and DAL/HOU 2x. That's nearly a 1/4 of the remaining schedule against those teams with a sprinkling of SA, LAC, and a few heavyweight Eastern Conf teams. This may be my own bias kicking in but I don't think it's too crazy to assume this team wins less than 20 games to finish out the season. Realistically I feel 16-18 wins is about where they land. I could be wrong, but I thought some others might appreciate a broader yet more detailed look/comparison.

 

Damned fine work sir. Definitely keep that kind of thing up!

 

now THIS is a sick first post. Setting that bar high!

Welcome.

 

F that. This post is numbers gobbledygook. King said the Blazers are better so I'm sticking with him. I bet Charles Barkley thinks they suck so even more proof.

I do feel dumb knowing now that Vegas had the win total that low. I could've made a few bucks.

 

None of these statements contain qualifiers about motivation or anything else. They're quite clear and they support HCP's statement.

 

Early November there also were people saying Leonard was going to be better in the rebound department and would also be a better pick & pop guy then Aldridge.

 

Aminu had a few good games at the beginning of the season - and a fan base desperate for good news embraced him. (I was guilty too)

When people talk about how the Blazers will be able to use all their cap space to sign good players, I just want to point to Aminu and laugh. That is $7 million the team might as well as used for toilet paper.

 

Post more please!!!!!

 

Hes shooting like 37% from 3s with tons of attempts and avgs 11 and 7, with average to solid defense mind you by next yr his 7M dollar contract is like the equivalent of 4M with the old salary cap ..

Shit he shoots better from 3 than Dame

 

Bones is gonna love this!

 

I was a fan of the Aminu signing- and for the $ I think he's worth it. His catch and shoot numbers from 3 - ~37% are consistent with what I expected at the beginning of the year. After falling off a bit in the beginning of Dec he's actually been pretty hot from 3 (catch & shoot) at over 40% (12/8/15-1/8/16) His defense has easily been the best on the team- take a look at nearly any metric and you'll find him at or near the top.

What hasn't been great and what probably puts people off is something I've made bones about all season- Aminu has been an absolute trainwreck on drives. I mean it's something to behold...

EDIT: Twitter embeds are nightmare eh?! Here's the direct link... Twitter conversation RE: Aminu can't finish

When you're DEAD LAST in finishing on drives as an athletic 6'9" SF... I just. I... I can't even. Physically- that should be the guys bread and butter. Long, strong, and stupid athletic usually means- can't shoot, but can damn sure put the ball on the floor and finish at the rack. I need to take a look at the historical numbers.. but I have a reeling suspicion that it won't be pretty now matter how I slice it.

Bottom line- for the role he's asked to play- he's more the sufficient. For the money he's being paid (on an NBA scale) he's a bargain (I'm actually working on a larger "value :: $$" project that I hope to have done soon)

 

Exactly. Again the guy shoots better from 3 than Dame. Granted I'm sure Dame's attempts are much more, but shit Aminu shoots a lot of them bad boys too. What we're paying this guy with this new cap hes hellllllllllllla cheap. A GREAT bargain. His drives are maddening no doubt, but that's on the coaches they need to tell him to cut that shit out. He's like the anti-batum actually in he believes in his abilities a little too much to the point he does dumb shit. Basically hes too damn aggressive. Imagine if Batum had Aminu's confidence when he played with us lol

 

And Jared Dudley shoots threes better than Steph Curry.

 

Nico was my favorite Blazer for years...until the last half of last season...when he needed to step up, he took a nap...Aminu put up the best numbers of his career in the playoffs..this is the upgrade..Aminu is also about 4years younger than Nico. I don't think there are half a dozen players with Nic's all around skillset, but he's checked out when needed one time too many and I've given up...No need to bash Aminu for being the new guy who's still learning the system...Nic played 7 years with Lamarcus and 5 with Wes..that's a comfort zone nobody on this roster has achieved yet but I have hope they will.

 

This

 

Nice find FAMS! Experts of the game obviously!

 

I still don't know what you're talking about.

 

Last 50 games...

2014-15 Blazers: 23-27 (including playoffs)
2015-16 Blazers: 24-26

Now do you see what I'm talking about?