So which team does Ezeli end up with, and what do we have to add?

I'm not exactly sure on the end date, but I believe the season officially ends once the last game of the finals is over. So, that would mean the $3.6 million for the 2017-18 season would be available in time for draft day deals.

BNM

 

Do you know this for a fact? I know it's fairly standard practice for teams to take out insurance on their players' contracts, but given Ezeli's history, that may not have been a viable option. I did a quick google search and didn't find anything. If you have a link, please share it.

BNM

 

Ah, that's a good point. I forgot that they'd only have to pay his prorated salary while getting "credit" for his full-season salary.

 

Yes, it is under the assumption that there will be no other trades between now and the end of the season, and the assumption that there is no insurance. Stein reported that the Blazers were looking to attach some sort of compensation in order to move him, not improbable, but ditching him with a second would probably only happen if no other opportunities pop up between now and 2/23.

Still, there is real cash savings involved, and if you can assume you can purchase another second rounder for less than the total cash allowed to be sent in a year ($3M), then you are still saving money by packaging Ezeli away with a second.

 

BTW, I think the real incentive here to move Ezeli is not the actual cost savings of unloading him, I think it's the fact that even though only the first $1 million of his 2017-18 contract is guaranteed, dumping him get's us $1 million closer to getting below the luxury tax threshold for next season. Before the Plumlee/Nurkic trade, we were only $29K below the threshold this season. They cut it really close this year, and because the repeater penalties are so onerous, I think Neil and Paul will do everything they can to squeak under the limit whenever possible.

Based on the latest estimates, after the Nurkic trade, we'd need to shave about $16.8 million to get under the estimated 2017-18 luxury tax threshold. Keeping Ezeli and waiving him gets that number down to about $10.1 million. Trading him gets that down to $9.1 million. Keep in mind, Meyers Leonard ($9,904,494) and Maurice Harkless ($9,662,921) will both make more than $9.1 million, but less than $10.1 million in 2017-18. That extra million is savings could be the difference between dumping one player and dumping two.

BNM

 

If NO could work Ezeli plus a couple of picks for Okafor, he and Nurkic would be quite a center rotation. That would be, overall, Mase plus a first and a second for those two guys.

 

We're already below the luxury tax threshold for this season. We'd have until the last day of the 2017-18 season to make any trades necessary to get below the tax threshold for next season.

If we move Ezeli now, it will be with something with very marginal value attached, like a top 55 protected 2nd round pick, or conditional swapping of second round picks.

I don't really think it's about saving $3.5 - $5 million of Paul Allen's money. See my previous post. I think it's about getting that $1 million in guaranteed salary off the books. It's only $1 million, but it gets us $1 million closer to being under the luxury tax threshold for the 2017-18 season.

BTW, the trade deadline is not the last opportunity to move Ezeli. We can technically trade him anytime after our last game, which could be as early as April 13, if we don't make the playoffs. Since the teams that are below the salary floor are also unlikely to make the playoffs, we will have another two and a half months to move Ezeli before the balance of his contact becomes guaranteed.

That also opens up the possibility he could be included in a draft day deal. With three first round picks, I expect Neil will be very active on draft day, exploring all possible options.

Point being, even though Neil is trying to move Ezeli now, he's not desperate. He won't overpay someone to take Ezeli at the deadline. If nothing acceptable is offered, he will wait and move him later. He could be part of a larger package going out on, or before draft day.

BNM

 

Agreed on all points.

 

Where is the draft day party gonna be at? When is it? Id be down for a summertime pool and BBQ, draft party, but it might be too early in the season?

 

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. Not sure that a 22 year-old gets to call the shots on that, though. Wherever he goes, he's going to have to split time with some other center. At this point, we don't know for sure that Stotts will start him over Leonard or Davis.

 

Why would we trade him? We won't keep him for next season and he has literally no value in the market. Unless it's for salary matching purposes, he will not be moved.

 

I don't think it would be a problem short term, perhaps long term. Both were racking up DNP-CDs and when they did play, Okafor was only averaging 23 MPG and Nurkic less than 18 MPG. They could both get more minutes here than they were on their previous teams.

The good thing is they are both young and still on cheap rookie deals. Two things we lack, after last summer's spending spree.

It's funny that I see posters constantly point out that we are the second youngest team in the league, but we really don't have a lot of young prospects on this roster. Until we got Nurkic, Vonleh was really our only young prospect. Our rookie Layman turns 23 in less than a month. For a "young" team, we really don't have a lot of future talent in the pipeline.

BNM

 

Orlando

 

That's one theory. The other is to have two guys compete for the starting spot and let the competition bring out the best in them. I know that wasn't working well in Denver, but I'm not sure that a guy who won't compete hard is going to pay off in the long run.

 

Yea seems Ezili would be a way bigger asset on draft night instead of trade deadline. Teams will be scrambling for cap relief