How has he shown growth? When he came back from his foot injury, he got 3 double doubles in his first 5 games including a 22/10 game. He also had 14 blocks over those 5 games. In his last 5 games, he has only 1 double double and only 5 blocks. He's lost confidence and given up on shotblocking. And he is still having games where he doesn't rebound. 4 rebounds for a starting center is horrible, especially one of his height and strength. People said he'd get better as the season went on. But he really hasn't.
Eric do you remember what Joel was like in his first few seasons in the NBA? The guy couldn't stay on the court. He fouled out CONSTANTLY. It gets in your head. They want to play, so they become tentative. He just needs to adjust to the NBA, and NBA refs. It will happen. Give it time.
How can you compare Oden to Joel? Joel is not a "once in his generation #1 pick franchise center." When we picked Oden, that is what we thought we were getting. KP said with either Durant or Oden, we would be getting an immediate impact player. Oden has NOT been an immediate impact player. I personally believe we'd have the exact same record this season without him. Why compare Oden to Joel? Oden is supposed to be compared to Shaq, Ewing, Hakeem, & DRob, all of whom stayed on the court enough to dominate it during their rookie years. If all we're getting is another Joel, then we should've drafted Durant. We already have a Joel.
Watching him, you can't see a progression in his game? It seems obvious to me. He's much less prone to being stripped, he handles passes better, he attacks the hoop more quickly and assertively, he looks "lost" much more rarely. His seasonal numbers are fine. He has a strong rebound rate, his scoring efficiency is good. His only real problem is fouls (which is a significant problem, but almost certainly something that will improve with time...almost all big men suffer through foul problems as rookies). His fouls hold his minutes down, which holds his raw statistics down. But his per-minutes efficiency has been very good for a rookie center, so I'm not in the least bit concerned. If he was unproductive when he was on the court, that would be concerning. (And I mean on average, not cherry-picked games.)
You're right about him not being stripped as much. But all these "rebound rate" and "per 48" crap means absolutely nothing to me. I watched the game today and he got pushed around, couldn't grab basic rebounds, and allowed anyone to score in the paint if they wanted to. He has absolutely given up on defense. Have you not seen that? Like I said... 14 blocks in his first 5 games back. 5 blocks in the last 5 games.
Yes, that's why I specifically said on average, not on cherry-picked games. It's fine to be emotional and frustrated about the bad games, but it doesn't lend itself to very accurate analysis.
None of those players, including Joel, had season ending knee surgery their first season in the league. KP also said "immediate impact player" before Oden was injured. You play hoops Eric, I'm curious to see how well you'd get up and down the floor if you got MF surgery.
So that's it? It's the surgery? We gave him a whole year to recover. The whole "Worth the Wait" campaign. He did pilates. Did rehab. Played a preseason. Played November, December, and January. And still only grabs 4 rebounds against the Mavs? Zach Randolph played better than that this after his MF surgery.
Zach also had played in the NBA before and never relied on his athleticism really. Zach also said during that whole year back that he still had trouble trusting his knee. Zach also had the offense ran through him on a 21-61 team, wasn't it?
Well, it just sucks that he needed the MF surgery to begin with. When we got the #1 pick, that's not what we were hoping for. I suppose I'm just supposed to wait two years. But in the meantime, I still watch every game so it gets frustrating. I can't understand going into a shooting slump. Or turning the ball over. Those are rookie problems. But to not rebound?? Not play defense?
2005–06 Portland 74 71 34.4 .436 .291 .714 8.0 1.9 .8 .2 18.0 Those are Zach's stats the year he came back from microfracture. 44% shooting and only eight rebounds (in 34 minutes on a 21-61 team) yet we consider that a successful year for a man who had previously played in the NBA (and thus wasn't a rookie adjusting as well) and was having the offense ran through him.
its amazing how little patience people have. Wait a year or two before you pass judgement on the big fella, holy crap...
That seems to be the consencus. Just wait for a couple years. I'll still be watching Blazers games in two years so okay.
I have no problem with fans, nba watchers considering Oden a bust, but the problem is everyone is jumping the gun. the Kid is 21. He has a decade and a half or so of potential NBA ball infront of him. Don't pass judgment on a guy until he has a few years under his belt. Even then, with Oden, he will be 23 or 24 with still another solid decade of hoops to go (arguably). But, yes, i would say a fair timeframe for his success would be by the end of his rookie contract. People just expect him to be some sort of wonderkid. Unfortunately Greg's NBA career doesnt appear to be taking that path. Only time will tell. But give him time.
And i would also argue that Blazer fans have enjoyed alot of success over the years and are spoiled with a franchise that has been a rather consistent playoff contender. Even with our rebuilding process we had over the last few seasons was pretty short, considering most franchises are stuck in rebuild mode for half a decade or more it seems (Chicago, Memphis, etc). Portland rebuilt in 2-3 years leading many to expect instant results from Greg. Demanding he produce and be some sort of almighty force. Greg will probably need 2-3 years to be at his best, if not more. Sadly, I don't know if people have that much patience.
Uh...we're all saying "wait 2-3 years" and "it's the MF"... Greg is leading all rookies not named Marresse Speights in PER. He is leading in FG%. As the previous poster put it (better than I can), he's getting over half of his shots without being assisted (that means that the number-y stat-things prove that he's not being passed the ball in a position to score). He's not getting rebounds or playing defense? That rebound rate number is a pretty solid indicator, even if you don't quite understand it. Top 10 (at last check) in the entire league. Here's another one: 20% more blocks per game than either LMA or Przy. (1.1 to 0.9) How about on offense? Here're the totals for games where Greg has 7 or more shot attempts: 11/15 @Min W 88-83 24min 4-8 8reb 13pt 11/18 @GsW L 111-106 30min 8-12 10reb 22pt 11/19 Chi W 116-74 17min 3-7 .10reb 11pt 12/7 @Tor W 98-97 28min 3-10 10reb 10pt 12/12 Lac L 120-112 42min 6-10 15reb 15pt 12/27 Tor W 102-89 28min 5-7 10reb 16pt 12/30 Bos W 91-86 36min 5-9 11reb 13pt 1/4 @Lal L 100-86 35min 3-7 4reb 10pt 1/10 Gsw W 113-100 26min 4-8 8reb 10pt 1/12 @Chi W 109-95 26min 5-7 13reb 17pt 1/17 @Cha L 102-97 18min 3-7 3reb 8pt 1/19 Mil W 102-85 35min 9-14 15reb 24pt 1/24 Was W 100-87 39min 6-10 14reb 18pt 1/26 @Lac W 113-88 26min 7-7 6reb 16pt 1/28 Cha W 88-74 30min 4-9 14reb 14pt 15 games with 7 shots or more. 11-4 in those games (losses to L*kers, bogus Clipper loss, etc). 10 double-doubles, averaging 14pts and 10 reb. Perhaps thtes
We lose a 5 game winning streak to a playoff bound team at their place and the sky is falling... The fickleness cracks me up.
