...dead man walking; https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...15/china-defense-minister-missing-li-shangfu/ China’s defense minister under investigation for corruption U.S. and Chinese officials say Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for weeks, likely will be removed from his position Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in New Delhi in April. Li is under investigation for corruption, U.S. officials say. (AFP/Getty Images) Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is under investigation for corruption and likely will be removed, two U.S. officials said this week, in what would be the latest in a series of top-tier purges of Beijing’s security ranks. The expected purge of Li, who has been noticeably absent from public view for the past two weeks, in the wake of other dismissals will heighten a sense of uncertainty over how China’s day-to-day foreign policy is being managed. It will also further call into question Xi’s leadership as he consolidates power, analysts say. They note that the narrowing of his inner circle to yes-men has deprived him of opinions and advice that could avert damaging decisions. One Chinese official said that Li’s dismissal was imminent, but said it was for “health issues,” not corruption. Two people involved in the Chinese defense industry, however, said there is broad consensus that Li’s absence is related to corruption charges relating to his previous position as head of military procurement. Li, 65, who was appointed defense minister in March, is one of five state councilors — high-level officials — tapped by Xi to form China’s leadership cabinet this year. Li was last seen on Aug. 29, when he gave a keynote address at the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing. Earlier last month, he traveled to Belarus and Russia, meeting in Moscow with his counterpart, Sergey Shoigu. He is due to take part in a major international defense and security conference in Beijing next month, the Xiangshan Forum. China’s military shake-up may hint at corruption — or Xi Jinping’s weakness Li’s apparentcashiering would come months after the purge of China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, and the leadership of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, its premier military unit in charge of the country’s growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and conventional missiles. “These are some of the most important outward-facing positions in China,” said one senior U.S. official, who like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. Li “is under serious investigation and in all likelihood is being removed,” the official said, noting that the Rocket Force leadership purge also involved allegations of corruption. The Financial Times reported Thursday that U.S. officials think that Li is under investigation. Should Li be sacked, he would be the second state councilor to be removed from a ministerial position within three months. “It could be even worse than that,” the official said, alluding to the potential for further purges.
It's almost like being a billionaire doesn't qualify a person to engage in foreign policy. It's a shame we let people like this write our policy...
Britain is recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign nation making it the first major nation to re-establish diplomatic ties with the country. Good move Britain! Much respect! The entire world needs to follow suit and step up.
It's sabre rattling as Taiwan election campaigns are going on. It would be economic suicide for China to isolate itself in the Pacific Rim from all of it's neighbors to invade the island. They can't afford to be another Kim or Putin with his frozen assets all over the free world and sanctions. China lacks water and raw materials.
Yep. You'd see about 500 million dead Chinese within a year or so. Far worse than any other outcome they could imagine. *Edit* I mean, maybe, MAYBE Xi is dumb enough to do that. But it would be a blunder of monumental proportions.
I don't know. I think they can and probably will do it, and they'll get away with it. We'll support Taiwan for awhile, but we'll soon get bored with it as we have with Ukraine. And after it's done, it's not reversible. We'll impose sanctions, sure, but many countries (and companies) will ignore/evade the sanctions. And @jonnyboy will explain that Taiwan was really to blame for the invasion. barfo
If there was a land mass China could use to invade Taiwan, no contest. However, conducting an amphibious and parachute attack against a fortified area is the most difficult and dangerous mission for a large army to complete. Add to this all of the satellites and electronic surveillance equipment monitoring China. China could not keep the moving and loading of so many troops and their equipment a secret. Taiwan would have time to prepare a strong defense. A sneak attack is not possible. There is a way China "maybe" able to take Taiwan by force. But I hate making this comparison. China would need to bomb/missile strike a large part of Taiwan untill it looks like the Gaza does today.
Agreed. China stands to lose a lot more by invading Taiwan than they stand to gain. The attack alone will likely cost them 1 million soldiers. They'll have to destroy most of the industry and fabs they'd want to control. Then they'll have a million fewer soldiers to deal with the riots when sanctions hit and their whole country is starving. However, Xi calls all the shots. And he's disposed of everyone who was willing to disagree with him or give him bad news. If he needs a distraction or gets a bug up his butt...
That's absolutely true, yet I don't think that's the calculus they are doing. That too, I doubt is a big concern for them. barfo
My wife and I are happy Lai won...his VP was the Taiwanese representative to the US in DC which is also good for relations.
Just watched a discussion by x-military US strategy planners. They ran 25 different simulated war games of China trying to take Taiwan. The games exposed the main tactic China would use. A complete in depth blockade of Taiwan. With so many ships, aircraft and missiles, China could surround Taiwan making it imposible to get anything in, or out. All games ended with China losing, if the US used every weapon, short of nuclear, to break the blockade. But at a very high cost of lost personel, aircraft and ships, to all sides, including the US. To reduce US loses, we would need many times more very long range anti-ship and anti- aircraft missiles than we now have.
