Taiwan has run several of these and the last one I read about said Taiwan would protect itself but in doing so the Chinese Navy would be completely destroyed as would the American Pacific Rim Naval air force....we'd be wiped out of fighter, jets and bombers in the region. The other reason China won't attack Taiwan militarily is that Taiwan has neighbors who do not want to see Chinese military expansion....from S Korea and Japan to the Phillipines, Viet Nam and Australia...Taiwan has allies given the circumstances. Japan is already gearing up for war games with the allies in the region. They are in naval excercises with S Korea and the US already given the threats from N Korea and China over protected waters.
But we can ramp up and rebuild that. In fact, we should probably be ramping up for that now anyway. I figured we probably are.
I am curious because I really don’t know, but in order to ramp up, do you mean ramp up war games or ramp up military arsenal? If you mean arsenal, wouldn’t that mean more military spending than we have now? And if so, how could that happen if you are in favor of less military spending to help fund domestic issues? I’ve heard you say many domestic issues could easily be solved if we spend more and you have said the funds are there if we reduce our military spending? I could be wrong in this, as these are recalls over the last handful of years from previous discussions, so please correct if I am wrong. How are we to ramp up military spending if we are diverting military funds to help with domestic issues?
Arsenal. I've not been one who harps on military spending. Typically I point out services and solutions that save money by spending on them. Housing people costs less than allowing them to be homeless, and improves society exponentially. Universal healthcare costs less than our current system, and improves society exponentially. Negative income tax costs less and improves society exponentially. Spending on a Finnish style education system would cost less and improve society exponentially. Changing our law enforcement and judicial systems to focus more on education and rehabilitation (ie. German, Nordic, and Scandinavian model) rather than punishment and restitution would be less expensive and exponentially improve society. Preventing Russian imperialism will cost far less than allowing it, and it will be far better for society.
My post here is pure theory and speculation. It is believed by many US strategy planners, China's and Russia's long range plan to defeat the USA is to get us spread out and involved in 3 or more conflics at one time. Ukraine and Gaza make two. Is Taiwan and Korea 3 and 4? What about Iran?
I think @riverman you lived in Taiwan, right? I travelled there as a student and loved it. But that said, while I get that it's a 'western ally', I don't follow the logic of the U.S. going to war over it. It's like Cuba here. If we tried to invade (yes, I know we have), Russia would like now stay out. Monroe Doctrine and all that. Isn't Taiwan really in China's sphere of influence and not our concern? That's how I see it. Then again, I'm a peacenik, so no war ever makes sense to me.
If China attacked, or just blockaded, Taiwan, the result would be a global economic crisis. Taiwan manufactures 70% of the worlds microchips. And 90% of the most advanced chips. Without chips, the world would shut down. Cuba's main attraction would be tourism.
If China decides to start rising up, it might be time to dust off the cool shit we had flying around Area 51.
Taiwan is not just our ally in the region. We have trade partners and military partners throughout the pacific. if we don’t protect Taiwan and our partners in Asia then you’ll see much more expansionism in the pacific. China is not threatening from a position of strength. They have border skirmishes now with India which has as large an army and nukes. I’m not sure how Israel or Ukraine are anymore in our “sphere” of influence. Taiwan is sharing technology with the US. Nobody likes war anymore than anyone likes being invaded. Cuba had a revolution by its own people That’s a far stretch from being invaded by your neighbor
On the surface, it does look like China could invade Taiwan. And it may have been their plan.. But plans change. The short answer to why China probably will not invade Taiwan is.. The suprising results of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are two parts to this reasoning. 1) China's military model and equipment are copies of, or very similiar to Russia's. Russia's invasion plan was to take Ukraine in 3 days. It failed due to a poor military model, and sub-par equipment. 2) The sanctions placed on Russia have hurt them. China could not survive without world trade. Both to export goods to fund thier economy, and inport the goods they need, such as food. If China invades Taiwan, the entire global economy eould collapse. But China would suffer the most under sanctions. In short, China would be commiting suicide. They now know this, and their war games are a bluff.
