Tank for Wembanyama

3 7 6 8 1 8 6 8 6 6
6 3 8 8 5 3 7 7 2 5

First 5th spot was (Hou+1, SAS+1, Det-2, Cha)
Second 5th spot was (Cha+3, Hou, SAS, Det -3)

 

Don't see any 9th spot, which is extremely unlikely but yes possibly if all top4 spots are from teams with less odds that jump us.

So when watching the draft we don't have to worry about seeing our name in spots 14-10. But after that we don't want to see the Blazers and should be ecstatic if we see Charlotte or the Spurs.

 

8 6 7 5 3 0 9

 

7 6 7 2 8 4 7 8 7 4

Don't let me watch the lotto I guess

 

3126261847

 

There will kind of be a key when watching the draft lotto. If no team behind us moves up we are 1-5. If one team behind us moves up and we aren't the 6th pick then we are 1-4. If two teams behind us move up and we aren't 7 or 6 then we will be 1-4. If three teams behind us move up and we aren't 8, 7, or 6 we will also be 1-4. If four teams behind us move up then we will have the ninth pick.

 

The NBA should reveal the order over a two week period, lol

 

They should do 30 seconds for each envelope instead of 5. Explain what it means when a team moves up. When it's the last two spots, open envelope 1 first.

 

Roy's the same age as LeBron.

 

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2

who wants to touch me?

 

Yeah and the lottery reveals all happens so fast I don't think even as a math person I can figure that out in the moment. I'll just hope to not see our card starting at pick #9, and hope to see Charlotte or the Spurs before us.

If someone has a better one sentence summary of what we should root for I'm eager to hear it. But @blazerkor scenarios above are way too complicated for me to remember while pounding drinks, watching and yelling at the TV.

 

4 3 6 1 1 6 7 7 7 7

 

Blazers probability of picking at each spot;

#1 10.5%
#2 10.5
#3 10.6
#4 10.5
#5 2.2
#6 19.6
#7 26.7
#8 8.7
#9 0.6

 

Blazers probability of picking at each spot sorted;

#7 26.7%
#6 19.6
#3 10.6
#1/#2/#4 all 10.5%
#8 8.7
#5 2.2
#9 0.6

odd that #3 is 0.1% higher than the other top4 spots.

 

So nearly half of scenarios have us at #6 or #7.

2.5x as likely to pick at #7 than at #1.

 

kind of looks like you didn't re-set the order each time

 

Tankathon was wonky last night with cookies, FWIW.

 

#7 would certainly suck (#8 even more) On the flipside 4-9 is kind of a toss-up in terms of potential. (Maybe even 3-9) If GMs believe that to be true, then the trade value of the players drafted 4-9 might be the same in their eyes.

 

??