One thing nobody has mentioned is covid. It could cause guys to miss weeks. This is the year we need extra depth more than normal so its great Neil has done that. In the bubble Ariza missed it all with covid issue, Nas was hurt, Collins got hurt. CJ broke his back and probably misses weeks if it's the regular season. I think all of you allocating 48 minutes are greatly overlooking how many games will be missed when we're taking about 12 players getting minutes.
The exercise wasn't to project injuries that will effect the rotation just to predict what the rotation would look like with the roster that we have. This season will have guys missing games with COVID and injuries, I also think with the schedule being so compacted every team will rest guys on one game out of back to backs every once in a while. That being said, we definitely can't even try to predict or factor that into our estimation of rotation minutes. The variables that we really don't and can't know about are where Terry plans on playing RoCo, what role they are planning on Melo playing and if we'll get one more possible rotational player with the BAE (I doubt this one happens).
First one show more of his playmaking ability and some pesky defense. He ended up with 5 assists this game. This 2nd video shows every posession he touched the ball whether it was a make, a miss, an assist, a block, etc. He started at PG that game and in 34 minutes had, 25 points on 9-14 shooting, 5-6 from '3', 2-2 from the FT line, 4 rebs, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks 0 turnovers and was a +5 for the game. Small sample sizes, but does seem able to make a play for others, can score with either hand (natural lefty) and causes havoc on the defensive end. Works for me.
With the roster we have, it's not unreasonable to project games being missed due to injury/illness. For instance, to start the season, I might project Zach and Hood to be out of the lineup, which would give a rotation of (perhaps) Dame (36)/Ant (12) CJ (36)/Trent (12) DJJ (28)/Trent (20) RoCo (30)/Melo (18) Nurk (30)/Kanter (18) Now as Hood and Zach return, I would hope they primarily siphon minutes away from Ant, Melo, and to a lesser extent Kanter. And honestly, if he continues to be wholly ineffective at the NBA level, Ant could be removed from the rotation above without much difficulty, even before bringing anyone else in. I'm just happy with the fact that our roster appears to be so deep that it could absorb an absence or three from rotation players without requiring guys like Gabriel or Elleby to play significant minutes.
I already think Ant is out of the rotation. I think the team finally understands that Dames window is closing.
More Harrison: Played in 43 games last season, but in 16 of those, played less than 6 minutes. So for sake of legitimate minutes, will count from 27 games. In 29 games, only 5 times did he have more than 1 turnover. (4 games with 2, 1 game with 3) In 29 games, he had 8 games with 3 assists or more. (1 game with 5, 3 games with 4) Did have some stinkers: 1-6 FG in 11 minutes vs TOR 1-5 FG in 23 minutes vs POR 0-4 FG in 16 minutes vs DAL When playing more than 6 minutes: 73-150 from the field, .487% 16-39 from '3', .410% Avg 2.5 stls/36 last year DRtg last season of 105 ORtg last season of 116 DBPM of 2.4 (compare any of these numbers to Ant and sadly, it is not pretty) Could be had on the cheap, creates havoc on defense, limits turnovers, can hit a '3' when he gets more than mop-up duty, and certainly is a positive for his team as a whole when he is on the court. Small sample size, but he would go with the defensive themed additions of RoCo and DJJ and is a better PG option than what we currently have off the bench.
Interesting that you claim Shaq isnt a PG, then suggest Ky. They both have ~ equal assist rates, but Shaq takes care of the ball better resulting in a higher A/TO ratio
I think you are right. Ant was so bad last season that when we got to the point where the games really counted, Hezonja was playing in his place. We have to find another playmaker. If I was Blazers I would try to turn Trent (or Hood?) into a playmaker. And also find one, which is very difficult with the money we have left.
Dame/Ant CJ/Trent/CJ2 RoCo/DJJ/Hood/Little Melo/Collins/Giles Nurkic/Kanter CJ2 is probably a 2-way. Still room for one more. PG....please!
If we can get a decent back up PG then for the first time in many many years that I can remember I would be comfortable with every player on that gets on the court. Weird concept, weird feeling.
Sorry, man. After extensive research, I have uncovered the fact that Neil Olshey was repeated beaten up by a point guard as a youth. "Point Guards are stupid" Neil says in his upcoming tell-all book entitled "Hair 4 Evar". He continues "Just get the ball to your best player and have them Dominate! You don't need the offense 'set up'. Lillard's OK because he IS the best player on the team - no need to have someone pass to him, he starts each possession with the ball."
Melo kind of screws up my rotation. I don't know how many minutes he should get during the regular season. He does fill the important role of an extra shooter on the court at the 4 spot that Terry likes. So I think he will play at the end of games. Little will have to wait for an injury to get minutes. If we get a back PG then the same will be said for Simons. But right now I think he will get a few. Here is my rotation assuming that everyone is healthy. I also expect Trent to close games at the 3 Damian Lillard / Anfernee Simons CJ McCollum / Gary Trent / Elleby Rodney Hood / Derrick Jones / Nassir Little Robert Covington / Zach Collins / Carmelo Anthony Jusuf Nurkic. / Enes Kanter / Harry Giles
which makes 14, and Neil likes to keep that 15th spot open in case something delicious and cheap comes along. Also, Neil still has the BAE available (I don't know when it expires), he would be able to offer the recently renounced Joe Cool slightly more than other teams. Of course, some have proposed that Elleby will be put on a 2-way, which is possible, but I find unlikely.
If Zach is out and Hood is still recovering Dame 36/ CJ 12/ Ant 0 CJ 24/ GTJ 24/ Elleby 0 DJJ 30 / Hood 18 / Little 0 RoCo 30 / Melo 18 / Giles 0 Nurk / 30 / Kanter 18 / Collins 0 I think Hood plays reduced minutes to start until they're confident he's back. Originally I thought RoCo would start at small forward but knowing Stotts as we all do, I think he'll play him at power forward. The alternative is starting Melo and I don't think anyone wants that. If Hood comes off the bench we have a legit second unit that could start for some teams. CJ GTJ Hood Melo Kanter That's a lot of shooting. Hopefully not even CJ can fuck that up.
I debated where to place Collins and Giles. They are both about the same size. Looks like you went the opposite that I did based on the fact Giles has not attempted a 3 pointer. For this reason, I see Terry using Collins at PF and Giles at C, once healthy.
