The Case for Jake

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Oct 28, 2018.

  1. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Layman is not an end all/be all, but he is dramatically improved in a number of significant areas and in the very limited opportunities and minutes he is getting as the 5th option, he seems to be making the most of them. But his minutes are very limited and he usually starts both halves for 5-6 minutes and then never sees the light of day again.

    Layman....2017.....2018
    FG%......... .298 .... .529
    3FG%....... .200 .... .333
    2FG%....... .370 ..... .750
    eFG%....... .340 ..... .618
    PER.......... 4.9 ...... 12.5


    He is actually shooting just a shade less FG's per 36 than last season but his efficiency has skyrocketed up. His WS has climbed from -0.1 to +0.1. That is not a huge leap but by comparison, CJ's has gone from 6.6 down to 0.2. Aminu has gone from 4.2 to 0.2. Dame has plummeted from 12.6 to 1.2. Harkless is down from 3.2 to 0.2. Jusuf has fallen from 4.7 to 0.3. Collins who has shown much better this year as well is the same in WS at 0.3 both this year and last.

    So four of the five starters have fallen off significantly in WS while Jake is the only one to have improved. Of course it is early and in Jake's case, a limited sample size due to the minutes, but with such increases in efficiency, it seems like he should get more run.

    I get that Stotts isn't a big adjustment guy. We saw that in the Playoffs last year and we have seen that in games for years now. But what does a guy have to do?
     
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  2. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    He’d be a good (or intriguing) fit with the second unit if Moe ever got healthy or Aminu shifted over to SF. Giving him the Vonleh treatment doesn’t make much sense, he’s not a defensive specialist. Let him run with the second unit.
     
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  3. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    If Jake Layman is being talked about as a regular rotation guy, your team is basically a .500 team......
     
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  4. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    That can be said about a lot of players on this roster....and it's not like the Blazers are that far from a .500 record in most years and anything close to .500 in the Playoffs would be a massive departure from where they have been.

    It's not to say that Layman is some part of their Top 4-5 core, but he has significantly improved his efficiency. Some players on this team still can't dribble (or pass, or shoot, or show up consistently). Every year there is a call for another piece. With Dame/CJ, they just needed a big man. Enter Nurkic. That didn't really change anything. Then they needed more shooting. Enter Stauskas and Curry. I still see many of the same issues as last year.

    This is a flawed roster at best that is capped out. At some point, it has to be on the coach or the stars. You just can't lose games like what happened with the Wizards (still their only win this season) year after year and not start to look at the top.
     
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  5. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Leftist Mobster

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    He's only getting minutes because of Harkless's knee. I'm worried he will continue to get minutes.
     
  6. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I'd be very happy if we got 'Good Moe'....but history tells us, that 'Bad Mo' also shows up a good portion of the time.
     
  7. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Leftist Mobster

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    I'd give Jake's minutes to Curry, even if Harkless isn't available, except against maybe the odd Carmelo Anthony.
     
  8. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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  9. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    WS is a cumulative stat. So, you're comparing 5 game's worth of WS to 82 game's worth. That's like saying Dame's points have plummeted from 1962 to 169, even though his scoring average is up from 26.9 ppg to 33.8 ppg.

    If you're going to compare a 5 game sample size to an 82 game sample size, at least use WS/48, and even that is subject to the usual small sample size caveats. In Dame's case his WS/48 is up from .227 to .334, a substantial INCREASE. But again, that's a 5 game sample size. Time will tell if he's able to maintain this level of production over an entire season. He's had hot streaks like this in the past, just not this early in the season.

    BTW, if Dame was able to maintain this level of production and play all 82 games, he'd finish the season with 19.7 WS. Last year's MVP had 15.4 WS. Westbrook had 13.1 WS in his MVP season. 19.7 would be the highest since LeBron had 20.25 in 2008-09 and the second highest in the last 23 seasons (Michael Jordan - 20.43 in 1995-96).

    BNM
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
  10. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Is there any other kind? The man prefers to play basketball in a hoodie for Pete's sake.

    BNM
     
  11. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Obviously it's a small sample size...and just a comparison of last year to this year so far. But that was obvious. It's just what was and what is.
     
  12. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Know where you are going or end up somewhere else!

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    no me...I think Jake is a much better defender at the three position and he should be.
     
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  13. ripcityboy

    ripcityboy Well-Known Member

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    I don't know why there are so many people dead set against giving him time. It makes no sense. He's show decent production in the five games with a cap of of 7-10 minutes on any start. He doesn't do any one thing exceptionally, but overall I would say the biggest weakness he has might be on his 1 on 1 defense. He isn't the quickest guy in the world. But his shot is WORLDS better than it was a few years ago. I'd put his development about where Pat Connaughton was when he started featuring for us. And certainly, there is nothing wrong with that. We need as many shooters around Turner as possible, when Moe comes back move him to the starting lineup and feature Layman in the second lineup. He's earned it.
     
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  14. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    No, it's not just a small sample size. You are misusing the stat. To say Dame's WS have plummeted from 12.6 to 1.2 is not a valid comparison.

    For the comparison to be valid, you'd need to compare last's year's WS through 5 games to this year's WS through 5 games. I don't know where to get that data, but I can guarantee you with Dame's scoring and PER both at career highs, by far, his WS through 5 games this year is higher than it was at the same point last season. It has not "plummeted".

    Put it another way: saying Dame has plummeted from from WS = 12.6 to WS = 1.2 is analogous to saying the Blazers have plummeted from 49 wins to 3 wins.

    BNM
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
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  15. BonesJones

    BonesJones YouTube - TrueBlazerFan

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    If you want Win Shares as a non-cumanalitive stat, use WS/48.
     
  16. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Go ahead. I just pointed out a simple comparison. Didn't say it was the end all. If some people want to argue it, pick it apart or do more work...feel free. Don't have that much time. Have at it.
     
  17. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    There was an actual Jake sighting in actual non-garbage time last night against the Thunder and as has been the case for the large majority of this season with him, when he gets decent run and a few shots, he produces well.

    When Jake plays as many minutes or more as he did last night, he is shooting .545 from the field. Take out his one outlier brick-fest on Dec 8 and that goes up to .582 from the field. In the same minutes, he is shooting .375 from 3-pt range and again, remove the outlier game and that jumps to .423 from '3'.

    One of the biggest issues with this team is having an athletic wing who can move without the ball and make a '3'. Layman is quite good this year at both of those when given minutes. Even the minutes he has received have been sporadic at times and it's tough to get a rhythm in such herky-jerky rotations.

    What is Stotts deal with him?
     
  18. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    if he plays like he did last night, or reasonably close to it, I certainly think he should take most of Stauskas minutes
     
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  19. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Hes getting Vonleh’d. Remember when Aminu was injured last year and Vonleh stepped up in his absence? Then Aminu came back and not only did Vonleh not keep his spot, he got kicked out of the rotation all together.

    There is no logical answer to your question.

    My guess is he’ll be in the rotation again tonight, and then get pulled as soon as he misses two shots.
     
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  20. bodyman5000 and 1

    bodyman5000 and 1 Lions, Tigers, Me, Bears

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    Maybe that is actually another part of his system.

    Pick a guy to mess with
     

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