The Case for Jake

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Oct 28, 2018.

  1. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    I like Jake...he's not the defender Mo is at all though
     
  2. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I don't think anyone is suggesting that. But when he can (and has) shoot like he does, that he gets so many DNP's is very sketchy to me.
     
  3. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    I like Jake taking Stauskas minutes ...Stauskas does literally nothing better than Layman
     
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  4. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think anyone’s suggesting he replaces Harkless in the lineup anymore. The issue is that he doesn’t play at all.
     
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  5. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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  6. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    After the recent run Mr. Turtle has been on, I started digging into his game stats a little more. This may be of interest.

    If Jake gets 5 or more FGA in a game, here are the following results:

    FG% - .548
    3-pt% - .333
    (that goes up to .375 minus his one outlier 0-6 bricklaying night on Dec 8)
    FT% - .722
    Points - 11.23
    Rebs - 3.27
    MPG - 20:30


    Not that I'm a big per/36 fan but that equates out to just a hair under 20 ppg/36 at a very efficient shooting rate.

    It's like Jake has had to force his minutes and even when he got 20 points the other night, only played 18 minutes. Yet other teammates can have abysmal shooting nights quite often and still get plenty of minutes with no substitution in sight. What is it Stotts seemingly doesn't like about Jake?

    By contrast, it will only take one guess to figure out who this is:

    2-14
    5-25
    2-8
    4-14
    4-15
    5-16
    7-22
    5-15
    7-20
    6-17
    6-17
    6-17
    5-14
    7-19
    7-19
    8-21


    In not one of those games did 'this Blazer' play less than 28 minutes. And it's not like they were filling the stat sheet anywhere else or playing stellar defense. And it's not like there isn't a sub on the bench at the same position shooting near 50% from '3'.

    Head scratching....
     
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  7. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Agree on every level.
     
  8. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    at the risk of getting hammered, my take is that the temperature of 'Layman fever' is a way too high

    it's understandable though. There's little enough about the Blazers that actually transcend the rinse-repeat inertia that seems to have set in over the last 4 seasons. That's a big reason why Nurkic fever was a big thing a couple of years ago.

    I'm remembering the Webster-fever from about a decade or so ago. He was having microwave quarters and people were going nuts about it. He was getting compared to Dale Ellis and Glen Rice and Michael Finley and just about other every good-shooting wing that had all-star seasons. It was all a bunch of cart-before-the-horse momentum that slowly died as the reality of Webster's limited game was exposed.

    I'm not saying Layman is on that track. His sample size is so small the track is barely built, but he has shown flashes. The flashes are enough that he should be assured of consistent minutes. But he hasn't shown nearly enough to be penciled in as the SFOTF. That's just not realistic at this point, unless you are willing to settle for average or below if the fever is higher than the reality
     
  9. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I'm with you. Excited for him he's played well. Think he can probably be a decent SF in the league. Need a much bigger sample size though. Which means one thing, I think he's earned playing time and should get it. Hopefully, he proves he can keep doing this.
     
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  10. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    Credit to Terry Stotts and co for developing young 2nd round talent
    Gone are the days where Nolan Smith and Armon Johnson iso'd or exclusively ran P&R.
    Arrival of the days where the offense which is ran helps put young players in a position to succeed both on, and off the ball.

    Crabbe, Baseball player, Napier, Layman, Nurk, Nards, Collins.

    Nate would've never actually ran plays for Layman like Portland did in the second half against the Pelicans.
    It would've been clear out or P&R.
    Layman might've missed the shots but plays were still ran for him.

    Uhoh a post giving the coaches credit and not trying to armchair coach.
    This'll go well.
     
  11. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

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    I look at it like I really don't care what a player did at the beginning the season but what he bring now. I think Layman finally getting the confidence that he really can produce at this level. I think it was Mark Jackson said 30 percent is playing ability and 70 percent it is just plain mental. So a player gets this point in the basketball life they all can play but the mental will make you either make or go bust.
     
  12. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    This isn’t whatsoever aimed at anyone in particular, but I feel like every time Jake is mentioned (mainly by media and nationally, but some fans too) there’s this underlying joke vibe to it all. Almost like a “aww that’s cute, look at the white guy having the game of his life!”

    What if Jake is just a good player finally coming into his own? He’s in the NBA for a reason. He’s not a team mascot lolol. He’s an elite athlete, I mean look at how he stands out on a court full of other great athletes. He’s a fluid 6’9. He’s got a smooth looking shot thats almost textbook. He can post a bunch of players, especially when he’s playing the three. He doesn’t need to be a ball handler to be a multi dimensional scorer. I’ve said this before, but he’s a little bit of consistency away from being a rotation player. Maybe I undersold his potential as well. Maybe it is more than that.

    What if instead of five shots a game, he got ten? It’a completely feasible. CJ doesn’t need 18 shots a game. Aminu doesn’t need 8. Of course Layman’s TS% is going to come back to earth, especially if he’s given more looks, but right now he’s ranked tenth on the team in FGA, eighth in FGA/36. There’s no way there are that many guys more deserving of looks on the roster. Put some respek on his name maaaaan.
     
  13. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Couldn't agree more. In fact, that got me to checking. Layman is now the team leader in eFG% at .617. However, he was at .700 earlier this season just before Harkless came back so although he will likely come back to earth, he has been at a high level for most of the season.

    Layman.....Rank
    eFG%.........#1
    (tied w/Leonard)
    TS%...........#2 (Leonard)
    FG%...........#1
    3pt%..........#4
    (Curry, Leonard, Lillard)
    2pt%..........#1 (by a HUGE margin)
    FGA..........#10 (the only regular he is ahead of is Meyers)
    USG%.......#11 (Very solid numbers for such little use)
    PER...........#5
    Blk%..........#4
    (this was surprising)
    WS/48.......#4 (Dame, Nurk, Meyers)

    So why isn't he getting more run? I've talked to guys who have questioned Stotts about Jake and they get the feeling he is almost irritated by the questions. He has chuckled, somewhat rolled his eyes or seems bothered by being asked about him. There must be something that Stotts doesn't like despite Jake's massive increase in efficiency this season.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
  14. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, he doesn’t like the possibility he’s going to have to make a goddamn change in his goddamn starting lineup.
     
  15. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Stotts would rather lean on someone who has proven to be unreliable than a younger guy who hasn’t proven anything either way.
     
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  16. GrandpaBlaze

    GrandpaBlaze Predictions Game Master

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    One thing I like about Jake is that he seems to enjoy playing the game - he seems happy and involved. Harkless, not so much. Just kinda out there doing his job.

    Harkless can be great when on but you never know if you are going to get Impact Harkless, Invisible Harkless or something in-between. At least with Jake you will get lots of movement and effort - along with a smile.

    Watching him the other night the way he seemed to be constantly moving around, he kinda reminded me of Bobby Gross.

    Gramps...
     
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  17. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Good post until whatever this crap is.
     
  18. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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  19. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    What makes this meme great is that sort of looks like a short version of Layman lol.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
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  20. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest...ayman-earned-permanent-spot-starting-rotation

    Jake Layman has found himself playing inconsistent minutes this season. A starter for the first 19 games for the Portland Trail Blazers, Layman then recorded five straight games where he didn't see the floor. Coach Terry Stotts vacillated Layman's playing time with the availability of forward Maurice Harkless, a more dynamic playmaker and defender when not injured. But Harkless and his knee pain continues to be a storyline for the Blazers, and thus so do Layman’s minutes.

    Stotts has stuck with Layman as the starter, but gave Evan Turner a look in a matchup against Houston earlier in January. Layman is a more malleable quantity than Turner, and his remaining in the starting lineup helps the Blazers keep the more creative point forward as the leader of the second unit.

    At face value, it appears to most Blazers fans that Layman has more than held his own as the glue guy of the starting lineup. His shooting, rebounding, and willingness to cut has outweighed whatever defensive inequities Layman might bring to the table. But it still feels as though the third-year forward could be jettisoned from the rotation once — or if — Harkless returns to playing at full strength.

    The question on the minds of many Portlanders is this: why?

    Looking at Layman’s numbers, it’s clear that he’s made the third-season leap you hope for from developmental players. His free throw attempts per 100 possessions have doubled, and his rebounds by the same metric have gone up by three, per Basketball-Reference.

    Even more impressive is how some of his statistical improvements are underlined by a maturity about who he is and what he needed to improve upon. The NBA is now analytics-crazy, and as such it’s not that difficult to figure out how to be better on offense — shoot more 3-pointers and get to the free-throw line more often.

    While Layman hasn’t gone full James Harden on everyone, he has made a shocking leap. A career 23 percent 3-point shooter heading into 2018-19, Layman has risen to around the league average at 35 percent from deep. That’s no small feat, and it wasn’t just a weakness in Layman’s game, but a weakness in the Blazers rotation that he’s filled in the absence of Pat Connaughton. That’s allowed Layman’s true shooting percentage to jump by 27 points, which makes sense looking at some of his shot charts.

    [​IMG]

    Layman has also reduced his personal foul rate by about 15 percent per 100 possessions, a maturation that allows for Stotts and his staff to keep him on the floor longer and worry less about having to alter their in-game tactics due to foul trouble.

    There’s more juicy stats to love about Layman’s improvements. He’s boosted himself to the 82nd percentile when it comes to the amount of shots he takes at the rim, an obvious mirror to an fan watching him play and seeming miles more aggressive compared to seasons past. His rebounding numbers make him a top performer at his position as well, with Layman settling in the 80th percentile or better in both offensive and defensive rebounding, per Cleaning the Glass.

    The thing to avoid at this juncture is wondering whether Layman is ready to take over the starting position full-time from Harkless. There’s too many factors at play to make that kind of decision, including but not limited to Harkless’ health, attitude, and potential.

    But Layman is the kind of player that Portland has needed around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum on a consistent basis the past few seasons. This Blazers roster is top-heavy, and Stotts has done all he can to try and balance it out by making Turner the leader of the bench squad. Layman stepping up and being a useful wing player — <em>the</em> single most important thing Portland’s lacked since Lillard took over the team — has been a breath of fresh air.

    Layman is still young, and he’s liable to have some variance in his performance that no doubt irks the veteran-friendly Stotts. How the young forward has played during trying circumstances, both for the team and for himself, has been admirable. Blazers fans like to latch on to a player or two each season, puff them up larger than their true value, then get their hearts broken when things fall apart. Layman’s statistics support the idea he’s moving in the right direction, and his contribution for Portland this year is as positive as you might hope for from a second round pick.

    Who knows if Harkless will come back? Who knows if Stotts might go with Turner as a starter come playoff time? The fact is that Layman deserves his spot in the starting lineup within the context of the Blazers team, and if he continues to keep his head down and know his role he will be an important factor in the second half of the season.
     

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