We currently need oil. They would not become unprofitable until we no longer need oil. The price on the US side would regulate. Those 500k US oil workers are going to need to find something else to do before long anyway. This is a great opportunity for the government to make a push for green energy (including nuclear), and battery storage. And moving those workers over to those industries would be ideal. We have an excellent opportunity to lead the world right now by expanding investment into these technologies. But nobody in the oil industry wants any of that.
I don't think this makes sense. If you stop oil exports, then you inevitably reduce production. Buyers here aren't going to buy a lot more oil just because it's cheaper. And we don't want them to anyway. barfo
In the US we use about as much as we produce. If we end exports we remove our oil from the world market (where there is a shortage) and rely only on the American market, where we have balance between supply and demand. US oil production is quite profitable at $80, and can even be profitable as low as $50. But it's comfortable at $80, and we'd have enough demand to make it worth selling at that price.
True. Fuck'em. The biggest downside to this is us not producing more to offset the loss of Russian oil to the rest of the world. That gives me pause, and it's why I've accepted spending over $5 per gallon on fuel without much complaint. But make no mistake. Biden will ban exports of US oil this summer after he uses the opportunity to take care of of his political obligations.
But why would they sell it at $50? There's no reason for the price to drop just because you cut off exports. Maybe temporarily because it takes time to adjust, but if we are at net zero import/export, and we stop exporting... then what happens? In your theory the price drops because, I guess, there is more supply? But if the price drops, wouldn't the imported oil dry up? No one is going to want to sell oil to the US for a lower price than they could get on the world market. So then there isn't more supply after all. Obviously we are ignoring a lot of details here, like the grade of oil being imported/exported and where it is coming from (Canada) and going to (other places). And those matter a lot. But I don't see an export ban lowering prices generally if the world price doesn't change for other reasons. On the other hand, in the future if the world price skyrockets, then we in the US are better off with a captive oil industry. Conversely, if the Saudis open the spigots wide, then we start importing cheap oil instead of using our own and the US oil producers go out of business. barfo
The US can produce cheaper oil than anybody. And we don't need imports. We can be 100% energy independent. They wouldn't sell at $50, probably more like $80. In fact, now that I think about it, Biden may be waiting until US oil ramps up to take advantage the high prices before it bans exports... But it's coming.
That definitely is not true. Middle Eastern oil is cheaper than US oil to produce. Why is $80 the market price? Or are you going to institute price controls? Maybe so. barfo
Biden is waiting as long as he can before taps our own oil. I think part of the reasoning is conservation of our reserves. We can be independent, but for how long? The quicker we start using our reserves, the quicker they are used up, then we are once again relying on the middle east, if by then, they still have oil.
Oil, airlines, restaurants, hotels, food…all just trying to make up for Covid loss profits and jacking up prices. Period. We didn’t just miraculously lose a significant amount of supply with every goddamn thing in the world
You're right, my bad. But the US is very competitive with, or cheaper than everyone else. $80 is just the number I've read and heard as accepted the most, and it's a healthy profit margin.
We can be independent for far longer than we need oil and then we have friends to our north who have a lot. And we have reserves we've never come close to tapping. We need to use this as a kick in the ass for renewables and nuclear.
But, middle east has half the world's oil. So they can undersell us and everyone else if they want, for as long as they want. barfo
I bought a tube of toothpaste and it cost more than a gallon of gasoline.....people forget that the numbers at the pump are reflecting the value of the dollar more than the price of oil...skin lotion I used to buy for 1.99 cost 8.79 .....it's not about gas. It's about inflation. All that said I'm really appreciating my hybrid car these days
It's not just the US either. Inflation is rampant throughout the world. We are on the edge of a sovereign debt crisis that will be VERY painful for the world
America has been spoiled with cheap oil for my entire life compared to other countries...in Taiwan back in the 80s and 90s a liter of gas cost 3 bucks US....that's why motorcycles rule over there..a liter isn't much gas if you have a V6 or V8 vehicle..I don't know what it cost over there now but most countries paid double what we're used to paying decades ago...it's also why they use public transportation more than we do. Our urban infrastructure is so geared to the automobile that cars get priority real estate in the forms of parking garages and parking lots, spaces, etc...no doubt..people here will drive without purpose just to drive or drive two blocks to get a 6 pack...I used to go for a walk from the school on my lunch and everyone I worked with drove over lunch time. It's a real addiction here for the cars to be a huge part of life.
The trouble with that is geopolitical - once they've killed off our oil industry, they can shut the spigots back off. It's the reason we want to be energy independent - but no one is going to get excited about subsidizing our oil industry (even more) so that they can withstand a Saudi price war. barfo
But we could be almost completely off of oil long before we run out. And that really should be the goal here. Use this instability to get off of oil. Not doing so is almost criminal. And we could get Venezuelan oil in an emergency... So it's not like there is a ton of risk there.
