turner career stats: 10 ppg 5rpg 3.5 apg 27 mpg bazemore career stats: 8.7 ppg 3 rpg 2 apg 21 mpg what am I missing?
Career stats of a #2 pick getting minutes immediately versus an undrafted player who had to fight to make rosters his first couple years in the league.
good point. But still, all things considered, they seem roughly equal. I’m genuinely wondering what people think we can expect out of Bazemore this year. My assumption was roughly 12 ppg, decent defense, and decent 3 pt shooting. That doesn’t seem dramatically better than Turner to me, who was probably a better passer. I haven’t watched Bazemore much, though.
Sure. Even by your standards, I don't see the discrepancy. Whiteside has the highest career ws/48, by far. And he's replacing the three immediately after him (all centers). Hood is in the same range as the forwards. Three rotation guys are stepping into significant roles (Zach, Hezonja, Simons) and you agreed using ws/48 for these young players is not very useful. Bazemore is a wash compared to the player he's replacing (Turner). I understand the skepticism, I don't agree with what you're using to justify it.
I and our WL record will miss (Nurk) Aminu, Curry, Harkless in that order. It’s not really right to compare this year to last year since this year will benefit from a much improved Zach Collins which we would have had anyway and Simons which we would have had anyway. Whiteside will partly offset, but we will have a significantly worse record than last year.
In order for Collins and Simons to grow, they need to learn on the floor. With Curry and Aminu still here they wouldn't play as much. Sure, that might make things worse short term but it will benefit the team later this season.
I might have missed it but I haven't seen you make an "overall point" I've just seen you express the opinion that 'career win shares are wrong', and left it there. As I pointed out, I didn't use career winshares, and, I was only using one season of Blazer winshares to illustrate what Portland lost in departing players. I then used winshares/48 as a gauge of how likely the new guys were to replace lost production. It was a fairly narrow point
I thought it was pretty clear I understood you were talking about winshares/48 and I that I know what it is. I refer you to this quote: "Devin Booker has a lower winshare/48 for his career than Layman had last season." I was trying to point out to you why it's a foolish stat to use because even as a production rate it relies on a team winning. The Hezonja example is perfect. You state he has a bad winshare/48 and you admit it's because he's on a losing team, but then you say he also hasn't played well. Well, even if he had played well, he'd still have a dramatically lower winshare/48 and it would be hard to tell the difference. To me this is like looking at wins/inning pitched and thinking it tells you anything about how good a pitcher really is. Yes, I agree it's useful in determining how much was lost from the team in terms of producing wins. It's not useful to predict incoming production as it relates to wins. It's a good data point to contrast players within an organization, it's not useful for contrasting with players outside of the organization.
really? he played on the Knicks last year. Yeah, they were a crappy team. But here is a ranking of their winshare/48 marks: Mitchell Robinson .217 DeAndre Jordan .181 Isaiah Hicks .153 Enes Kanter .143 Kadeem Allen .111 Noah Vonleh .090 Courtney Lee .087 Luke Kornet .083 Henry Ellenson .070 Tim Hardaway .048 Trey Burke .044 Damyean Dotson .037 Allonzo Trier .030 John Jenkins .024 Emmanuel Mudiay .023 Lance Thomas .004 Ron Baker .002 Mario Hezonja -0.003 I disagree. If he had played well, there was plenty enough wins to go around to get his mark well above a negative number. I mean, we're all familiar with Vonleh's game and it's limitations. He was able to post a 0.90 mark on a crappy team, and he's younger than Hezonja but I'll give it to you....Hezonja is an outlier (although he didn't look it last night). Is Hood? is Bazemore? is Tolliver? Are Harkless and Aminu? Some of the departing Blazers spent years on crappy teams too. Harkless was in Orlando for 3 seasons when they averaged 23 wins a year. Aminu played 3 years for the Pels when they averaged 27 wins. Kanter was on the Knicks last year just like Hezonja you're making some valid general arguments about the predictive value of winshare/48 for young players. I tend to agree with those arguments...to an extent. But here's the list of the guys I listed and their ages: Whiteside 30 Kanter 27 Nurkic 25 Meyers 27 Curry 29 Hood 27 Harkless 26 Aminu 29 Layman 25 Zach 21 Turner 31 Bazemore 30 Hezonja 24 Zach is the youngest, by far, and he's played on teams that have won 49 and 53 games what I'm saying is that the argument you're making may only apply to Hezonja, and that's debatable. And again, the point I was making was a narrow one about what was lost and if what replaced it was likely to match or not. If it helps, disregard the winshare/48 stuff
I'm not buying what you are selling here. If being on a good wining team impacts WS/48, then you should see a big swing when a player changes teams. More often then not, the WS/48 is fairly steady. I'm struggling trying to think of a player who's swapped good/bad teams. But here are two examples... Ed Davis: Lakers '14-'15: 21 wins with 0.164 WS/48 Blazers '15-'16: 44 wins with 0.192 WS/48 Blazers '16-'17: 41 wins with 0.104 WS/48 Blazers '17-'18: 49 wins with 0.164 WS/48 Courtney Lee: 14-15 Memphis: 55 wins with 0.099 WS/48 15-16 Memphis/Charlotte: ~45 wins with 0.80 WS/48 16-17 Knicks: 31 wins with 0.081 WS/48 17-18 Knicks: 29 wins wtih 0.082 WS/48 The big takeaway for me, is the individual player's contributions have a much higher impact on WS/48 than the team's record does.... I'm really struggling to see much correlation between the team's record and WS/48.
That's funny you aren't seeing a correlation between WS/48 and team success. In your example, Ed Davis had a better season statistically playing for the Lakers in '14-'15 as his usage rate, PER, and overall production were higher than the following season, yet because he played on a terrible team, his WS/48 of .164 is significantly lower than the .192 he produced the following season with lesser statistics playing on a winning team.
