The Official Around the NBA: March 2019 edition

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerOwl, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    According to the NBA, POR is 19-16 with a +0.1 point differential in "clutch" games (games within 5 points with under 5 minutes to play).

    They haven't been good at coming from behind in close games, but on the other hand, the previous DAL game was the only time all season they blew a 4th quarter lead and lost the game. When it comes to the 4th quarter, POR has been more consistent than any team in NBA history. Basically, what they do in the 4th quarter is consistent with what they did in the first 3.

    I think the lack of come from behind wins makes it seem like they are losing more close games than they actually are.

    BNM
     
  2. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    That's a good point they do almost always win if they have the lead coming into the 4th.
     
  3. Propagandist

    Propagandist Unknown Quantity

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    They swept the series against us this season. That's the doomiest and gloomiest scenerio possible.
     
  4. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Also calling OKC a true 8th seed is a misnomer. They're a half game behind being tied for 5th.
     
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  5. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    and it's looking to be irrelevant right now as they look to be hugging that 8th seed. Love to see them face GSW in the first round.
     
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  6. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    have you looked at their schedule? They play Toronto away tomorrow and have several other tough games. Portland is in much better shape than OKC.
     
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  7. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    It's annoying that the 3rd stringers seem to allow opponents in game where the Blazers are up by 20+ points, but at least POR seems to hold on in win those games, even if it hurts their margin of victory rating.

    I still get nervous when an opponent goes on a run and starts to mount a 4th quarter comeback, but I also miss those exciting come from behind Blazers victories. As a whole, the Blazers have made the 4th quarter largely irrelevant this season, which has made for some boring end of game situations.
     
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  8. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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  9. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    Another factor is that in today's NBA and all the 3 point shooting close games can break open into a 10 point margin rather quickly with a few key makes as well as the trips to the free throw line in a close game that can stretch out to 8-10 points so it doesn't look like a close game and sometimes happens in reverse where a team closes the gap with a couple made threes that takes a 10 point win down to 3-4 points so it looks like a close game. It would really take some dissecting to really know how teams compare in close games.
     
  10. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    This is perfectly fine by me. This is what good teams do.

    BTW, a reflective stat for this has been Dame and Nurk's on/off +/- currently at +16 per 100 possessions for both of them. Which is ridiculous and in the MVP territory. It's also an indication of how crappy our bench has been even while putting up good raw numbers. Dame/Nurk build leads, the bench gives it away.
     
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  11. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Doomier and gloomier than dropping from 3rd to 8th post All Star Game?

    Which would you rather be right now, POR three games up on OKC in the loss column with an easy remaining schedule, or OKC falling fast with a very difficult remaining schedule, but owning the tie breaker over POR?

    In another forum I frequent, OCK fans were bashing all of Westbrook, Schoeder, Adams, Donovan and even PG13 during and after their loss to MEM last night. Their fans have a valid reason to be a bit pessimistic right now.

    But then, some POR fans never actually need a reason to be pessimistic. It's just in their DNA.

    BNM
     
  12. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Any idea what the on/off +/- is for just our top 3 or 4 bench players - the guys who will actually see significant PT in the playoffs? It sure seems like our end of bench guys are about -80 per 100 possessions as they consistently turn a 20+ point 4th quarter lead into a single digit affair in less than 6 minutes.

    Agreed that Dame and Nurk have been phenomenal this season, but our bench, at least the 6-9 spots seems much better than years past. Maybe they aren't actually a positive +/-, just less negative than years past.

    BNM
     
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  13. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    upload_2019-3-21_12-20-18.png

    I wish there was a way to see these splits home/road. I'd venture to say those negative numbers for our bench players is largely skewed by how shitty they are on the road. And Kanter really needs to get his shit together.
     
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  14. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    As a comparison, here's how it looked last year.

    upload_2019-3-21_12-23-32.png

    We were deeper last year seemingly, but are more top heavy this year going against what all the pundits are saying about why we are better this year. Nurk's improvement has been massive. As has CJ's apparently.
     
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  15. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    All of that is explainable by the fact that CJ and Dame have played 85+% of their minutes together this year, as compared to 65% in years past. And if I'm not mistaken, Nurk plays almost exclusively with Dame on the floor as well. (BBref confirms--1820 of Nurk's 1908 minutes have been with Dame).

    The team works when Dame is playing; it doesn't when he isn't. It's basically as simple as that.
     
  16. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    Awe, it's nice to have you back adding a voice of reason. Very well put.
     
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  17. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Interesting. So, Curry, Hood and Layman are only slightly negative. That's what I suspected.

    And yeah, our end of bench guys have been atrocious.

    The fact that Kanter has a worse on/off than Meyers is depressing.

    At least Zach's defense helps make up (partially) for his hands of stone on offense. There is still hope the game will slow down for him and he'll become a solid 2-way player. He's still very young and has shown flashes.

    At this point, Stotts will need to juggle our back up bigs based on match ups, situations and who is playing well on a particular night. At least he has a variety of options. The bad news is none of them are especially appealing.

    BNM
     
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  18. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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    WoW! Jimmer Forget gets another chance.
     
  19. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    What I'd be interested to see is how well the bench mob might perform with Nurkic rather than Kanter. Like, we know that Dame plays the entirety of the first quarter (and 3rd). Why not sub Nurk out relatively early in the first, and bring Nurk back at the start of the 2nd when Dame sits. Perhaps Nurk's defense and facilitating alongside Turner/Curry/Layman could make for a more effective 2nd unit.
     
  20. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Yup. Less staggering with Dame/CJ has helped CJ. But Nurk had similar minutes WITH Dame last yr, so he has improved more than what can be explained by mins with Dame this seaosn
     
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