The Official Win Total Prediction Thread

Our first ten games are:

NOP
PHX
PHX
MIN
UTH
MEM
DET
DEN
SAS
MEM

I think in those first ten games we have a really good chance of going 5-5. I think we could beat New Orleans because they're on a second of a back to back and we're an uptempo team. I think we could steal one of the Phoenix games, and I think we've got a really good chance of beating Minnesota, Utah, and Denver. I think we lose to Memphis twice, Detroit, Phoenix, and the Spurs.

The next ten are

CHA
SAS
HOU
LAC
LAL
CHI
LAL
LAC
DAL
IND

I think we've got a good shot at going 4-6 on this stretch. I think we can beat Charlotte, the Lakers, and Indy. Maybe we steal one of the Clipper games, but I'm not holding my breath. So now our record could be 8-12 or 9-11.

Next ten are:

MIN
MIL
CLE
PHX
NYK
NOP
OKC
ORL
MIA
ATL

Looking at this, we might get 3 out of 10. I like our chances against Minny, Phoenix, and the Knicks. The Bucks are another young team, but they've had more time to develop together. I don't think we beat the Thunder, Cleveland, Atlanta, or probably even Orlando. To be on the safe side I'll say 3 wins, which puts us at 11-19 on the season.

Next 10 are -

NOP
CLE
SAC
DEN
UTH
DEN
MEM
LAC
GSW
OKC

This is going to be a rough stretch. Very brutal scheduling. I think we could get wins against Denver at home and Sac. Historically we haven't done well in Denver, so that's probably a loss. We might be able to get one against New Orleans and Sac. I'm going to say 3/10 because I think we might steal a win against one of the contenders, whether it's Memphis, LAC, GS, or OKC. So our record at this point would be 14-26.

Next 10

UTH
BKN
PHI
WAS
ATL
LAL
SAC
CHA
MIN
MIL

This is a good stretch for us. I like our chances in almost all of these games. I think wins against UTH, BKN, PHI, LAL, MIN, and CHA are all possible. I'm going to go with 6/10 but it could easily be 8/10. I'll put our record at 20-30.

Next 10

TOR
HOU
MEM
HOU
GSW
UTH
BKN
HOU
CHI
IND

This is a mixed bag. I'm going to say wins against BKN, TOR, and IND. 23-37 on the season.

Next 10

NYK
BOS
TOR
DET
WAS
GSW
ORL
OKC
SAS
NOP

Wins against NYK, WAS, ORL. Lots of road games. 3-10 on this stretch. Record is 26-44.

Next 10

DAL
DAL
LAC
PHI
SAC
BOS
MIA
GSW
SAC
OKC

I'm going to say we get one of the Dallas games. Philly is a win, as is the SAC and Boston home games. I'm going to say 4/10 on this series. 30-50.

Last two are MIN and DEN. Those are both winnable, however at this point I think we might be tanking. Still, I'll say we go out with two wins to put us at 32-50. So I guess that's my answer.

Final record - 32-50.

 

Nice breakdown Nate.

 

43

 

35

 

Most of you guys are soooo off.

 

You're way off.

 

24 wins by the All Star break more like it

 

You're not taking into account the youth and lack of experience on this team. I think we have a lot of talent, but we're going to see a lot more of what happened against the Clippers. We come out hot, we score a lot of points, and then we slowly peter out. The veteran teams like San Antonio, Houston, LAC, Dallas, etc, they're going to be able to sustain for four quarters. I don't think that's going to be the case for us. I think we're going to see glimpses of brilliance, and some games Dame is just going to take over, but overall I think we end up losing a lot of games that we could have won if we were more experienced. I'm going to go with 32 wins. I think best case we get 40 wins but that's the absolute best case, which really isn't a best case because it puts us in a crappy position to draft a difference maker.

 

31

 

42

 

You see this with small market teams. All the betting money is put on big fan base teams like the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees. Theres so few betters knowledgeable with the Blazer, or other small market teams, that there can be good chances to win.

Its mind boggling millions of dollars are being bet on the Lakers to win the title this year. Theres no way they win.

Yeah you want to do the bet in person. I have heard about mailing winning tickets into the casinos and they'll mail you back a check.

 

The optimists aren't taking injuries into account either. We almost certainly won't be injury free during the season. If a key guy goes down for any appreciable amount of time we will be in a world of hurt.

 

Outside of Dame, who is a key guy?

 

I think we have less injury risk than the average NBA team, since we have a smaller drop off between our starters and bench role players. Obviously if Dame is out it hurts a ton. Maybe CJ fills in fine for a couple games but longer than that and it could get ugly. Good news is the #1 predictor of injuries is... prior injuries. Dame has never missed an NBA game.

There will definitely be major injuries across the league. Last year the Thunder were decimated. Odds are higher we pick up wins from injury riddled squads than we are injured ourselves. Thats just because injuries to 29 teams "help" us injuries to 1 team hurts us.

 

Furthermore, Every team has Injury potential and none of it can be predicted.
Okay I predict the GS will only win 35 games because Curry goes down in game 7 for the season.
What if?
What if?
What if?
For the pessimists....

 

Can't that be said of any team though? So all teams should be bumped down a bit to take into account that chance.

 

40-41-1

Nov 11 game against the Spurs ends in a Tie....

 

It's 43

 

39