With all the drama over the past week, it's easy to lose sight of the real problem with this Bulls team. It's not Butler or Wade or Rondo. It's that, for the first time in 30 years, the Bulls don't have a single player on his rookie contract who projects as a future starter and is capable of providing a game-changing boost on a somewhat regular basis. Both Mirotic and McDermott matched that spec prior to this season, but in both cases they've regressed. Portis has also seemingly regressed. The team's most recent draft choice, Denzel Valentine, can't seem to find his way on the court. The team even have a couple rookie contract imports (Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant) who have managed to disappoint. For the first time in forever, the Bulls have no young core. Unless you're already an elite team, this isn't an acceptable situation and as we all know, this Bulls team is light years from being elite.
True. I really thought Denzel would play more than he has. He did very well in the D-league recently. Portis is a big surprise. He really looks bad. And yes, Niko and Doug have not improved. In fact you were right in saying they have regressed. I really like what I am seeing with Zipser.
This only breaks the pattern of getting rid of expensive yet good vet and replacing him with the cheaper option. Now they have no good cheaper options. Its not like under Paxson there has been anything close to a championship expect for 1 ECF appearance, so if this pattern has been broken who cares really. What, they are not going to win the title now? I'm not saying this to insult your post. You are right. They might have a hard time making the 1st round of the playoffs though if the East gets tougher. They will probably will squeak in there this year, even with all the dysfunction.
The effects of an absence of promising rookie-contract talent are several, particularly if you're an owner. Emotionally, a lack of good youth translates to a lack of hope for the future. The concept of hope may seem abstract, but it's important in determining the future value of the team's entertainment product. This in turn determines re-up rates for season ticket holders and gives the team more leverage in negotiations for local TV contracts. In team payroll terms, a lack of good youth means that you need to pay top dollar for role-players who normally would be under team-friendly rookie-scale deals. In the NBA, this can put you up against the luxury tax threshhold just to field a competitive team. Unless you have a team that is an undisputed championship contender like the Warriors or the Cavs, having quality talent on rookie contracts is critical to a NBA team's future.
I would say the problem is a little bit more narrow and that the failure of Doug and Mirotic to be difference makers in their roles has harpooned the team, moreso than the failures of our recent draft picks. Even more, I actually think the youth movement on this team might be a tad bit underrated because the FO have done a decent job of importing young talent from other places (Ie, Grant, MCW, Felicio) to compensate for their draft misses in recent years. If you work through the lineup, its Doug and Mirotic that are killing us. Besides them most everyone on the team is fulfilling expectations, including the youth. Jimmy's made yet another climb in his game, to the surprise of even his biggest backers. This is really big and ought to account for a few wins all by itself. Wade's performance to date has fallen into the "reasonably optimistic" scenario I had for him at the beginning of the season. Taj and RoLo are two of the most boringly competent vet big men in the league. And even at the bottom of our roster Felicio, Grant and Zipser have found their way into the rotation and are holding down their roles reasonably well. But of course this team's construction necessitates that we get playable shooting from M&M at a minimally acceptable level and it hasn't happened, and in kind of a big way. I actually think if Niko had a PER of 18+ and Doug had a 0.580 TS% this team would be trending for about 44-48 wins and the outlook for the future wouldn't be so dour. But these guys are looking like they might not even make it to their 2nd NBA contract right now and the team has no way of mitigating their disappointing play.
I agree that Niko and Doug are at the center of the issue. However, Portis looks like a M.Teague-like bust to me and Valentine, who was supposed to be pretty NBA-ready at age 23, hasn't even provided many quality "rookie flashes." The fact that Felicio, Grant and Zipser have shown signs of having some journneyman potential falls way short of balancing the ledger.
Truthfully I'm not sure the Bulls have done that much worse at the bottom of the draft than other teams in similar situations the last 4 years. It's been a bad half decade for picks 15-30 since 2014. I actually think Portis has an NBA player in him, he just hasn't found his spot yet, and I think he's playing head games with himself. He seemed more composed last year. Felicio I think is a genuine quality rotation big, although he has limitations since his rim protection isn't great. Altogether, I'm not sure the combination of MCW, Felicio, Grant, and Zipser is that much worse or better than the other teams that were picking 20-30 during this same time period. As an example, this is the draft bounty the Raptors have culled in from their late 1sts since 2013: 2016: Pascal Siakiam 2015: Delon Wright 2014: Bruno Caboclo 2013: N/A Here are the almighty Spurs: 2016: Dejounte Murray 2015: Niloka Milutinov 2014: Kyle Anderson 2013: Livio Jean-Charles The Clippers: 2016: Brice Johnson 2015: N/A 2014: CJ Wilcox 2013: Reggie Bullock Truthfully I'd take MCW, Grant + Felicio over any combination of these guys. I haven't gone through all the teams, but I'm guessing if you looked at Dallas, Memphis and OKC you'd see similar results. The cupboard's just been pretty empty lately in the back of the 1st round.