The Royals still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs

Discussion in 'American League Central' started by truebluefan, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2010
    Messages:
    212,768
    Likes Received:
    821
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So far, this really hasn't been the Kansas City Royals' year.

    There has been a lot of discussion about why this has been the case. In simplest terms, though, the Royals have been injured more than their last two playoff seasons, and there has been more underperformance and fewer breakouts than those last two seasons. This is pretty clearly the weakest Royals squad since 2012.

    As such, an excellent Cleveland Indians team has taken an opening and has built a great team with a nice lead on the American League Central Division. But thanks to the Wild Card, the Royals have two additional chances of getting into the playoffs without dethroning the excellent Cleveland squad.

    So...will the Royals make the playoffs?

    Well, probably not. As I included in a previous piece, it's not actually uncommon for a defending World Series champion to miss the playoffs--six of the past ten winners didn't make the playoffs the following year. You've been watching this team, and you've seen its flaws all year. There's a reason the Royals are in third place.

    But can the Royals make the playoffs? Do they have a path to squeak through?

    The answer is...absolutely. The Royals have been underdog masters over the past two years, winning the highest-stakes games in the most unbelievable ways in the highest-leverage situations. Until they're mathematically eliminated, they've always got a chance. Here's how the Royals could slip into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

    Schedule

    The Royals have 44 games left to play. Should the Royals go 30-14, that will get them to 88 wins, which would have been enough to get one of the Wild Card spots each of the last two seasons (there's no guarantee it will this year, of course, but it's as good of a guess as any). The Royals' best stretch this season came from May 1 to June 1, where the Royals went 18-11. Going on a 30-14 run is obviously difficult; it's ultimately why it's unlikely the Royals won't make the playoffs, but it's not impossible. From July 5 to August 29 last year, the Royals went 35-14. In 2014, the Royals went 31-13 from July 22 to September 7. And in 2013, the Royals almost achieved a 16 games above .500 run by going 36-21 from June 5 to August 9.

    But most important about the Royals' schedule is this: of the 44 remaining games, 35 are against an opponent above the Royals in the Wild Card standings or against a team with a significantly negative win-loss record. Only a three game series against the Miami Marlins and six games against division leading (and probably untouchable) Indians buck that trend.

    What that means is that the Royals have plenty of opportunities to nab some relatively easy wins against bad opponents with nothing to play for as well as make a direct impact on their own Wild Card chances with games against direct competitors. Of the five teams ahead of the Royals for the second Wild Card slot, the Royals still have at least one series left against three: the Detroit Tigers, the Boston Red Sox, and the New York Yankees. Furthermore, the majority (24 of 44) of games are at Kauffman Stadium, where the Royals have already won 63% of their games.

    Improvement from within

    If the Royals are going to go on a run, they had better find improvement from somewhere, because their current pace isn't going to cut it. The Royals could conceivably add a minor piece still--think Josh Willingham's August acquisition for the 2014 squad--but that has no guarantee of happening at all and will only offer moderate help anyway

    . - See more at:http://www.royalsreview.com/2016/8/...playoffs?_ga=1.133744586.518840680.1383366243
     

Share This Page