The Tale of the Single Digit PERs - Why We Suck Right Now and Why We'll Get Better

No duh, Sherlock. Sheesh. I think this RipCityDude has comprehension problems.

The argument is that the Blazers have struggled, largely because of our horrible play from the PF position, and the horrible play from our PF position is evidenced by the low PER. Not that PER causes poor play. I mean....Christ ... I can't even....

 

"Dan Sheldon" LOL

 

Such is the folly of Twitter and the 7 second or less attention span.

It's obvious from his replies, he saw PER in the title and didn't bother to read the post.

I addressed all his criticisms about PER in the first two paragraphs. This is the start of the very first paragraph:

I realize that's slightly longer than 140 characters (209 characters, including spaces), but when did it become valid to dismiss something you haven't even bothered to read? Such is the lassitude of the modern "journalist".

Specifically regarding defense:

Another 361 characters - 61 words.

I don't expect anyone, and certainly not everyone, to agree with what I write. In fact, I put it out there hoping it will spur intelligent discussion. I'm always open to hearing the opinions of others. That's why I come here.

I also understand that in the high paced, short attention span world of the Twitterverse, for many, anything that is longer than 140 characters is TL:LR. Still, if you're going to take the time to repeatedly shoot something down, you might also consider taking the time to actually read it.

Otherwise, you risk looking like a self-important tool. Perhaps that was the goal. If so, congratulations to Mr. Sheldon. Mission accomplished. Well played, sir!

BNM

 

Here's the 20 game update:

The bad news is we still have 5 guys in our top 10 with single digit PERs. Allen Crabbe has replaced Evan Turner on that list. The good news is, in addition to Evan Turner's greatly improved play, Ed Davis is showing signs of his old self and Meyers Leonard has also had some good games recently.

In order of minutes played (these numbers sum it up nicely for those who consider the rest TLR):

Allen Crabbe:
After 15 Games: PER = 10.3
After 20 Games: PER = 9.1
Change = -1.2

Evan Turner:
After 15 Games: PER = 9.5
After 20 Games: PER = 11.8
Change = +2.3

Ed Davis:
After 15 Games: PER = 7.2
After 20 Games: PER = 9.3
Change = +2.1

Meyers Leonard:
After 15 Games: PER = 8.6
After 20 Games: PER = 9.6
Change = +1.0

Al-Farouq Aminu:
After 15 Games: PER = 8.3
After 20 Games: PER = 8.0
Change = -0.3

Noah Vonleh:
After 15 Games: PER = 7.6
After 20 Games: PER = 7.2
Change = -0.4

The most encouraging change, as everyone has observed, is that Evan Turner is starting to fit in and playing like the guy we thought we were getting. He's been rock solid lately. In his last 6 games, he's scored in double digits 5 times and has also had multiple games of 4, or more, assists and/or 4, or more, rebounds. In those 6 games, he's only shot below .500 FG% once and is shooting .524 FG% overall for those six games.

He's recognizing where he can get his shots within the offense without forcing it and is also finding others (as witnessed by 6 assists last night).

He's also turning the ball over a LOT less. That's a trend that started much earlier. After turning the ball over 19 times in the first 8 games (2.4 TOV/G), he's only turned it over a total of 6 times in the last 12 games (0.5 TOV/G). That's quite an impressive turnaround. I'm sure it has come from familiarity with his teammates, Coach Stotts' offense and comfort in his role. If he keeps this up, whoever dubbed him Evan Turnover will have to think up a clever new nickname.

Allen Crabbe, on the other hand, has regressed and replaced Turner among the ranks of those with single digit PERs. Other than last night, he seems to be moving in the opposite direction as Turner. And it's not like he was having a great season (PER = 10.3) prior to Turner's emergence. In the five games since my first post, Crabbe has only scored in double digits and only shot above .400 FG% one time (both last night). His FG% over the last five games has been .313. Not good for a guy who's paid big bucks to shoot the basketball and do little else.

Crabbe's 3-point shot has been wildly inconsistent this season. It seems to come and go on a nearly nightly basis. After 3 games where he was a combined 1-8 from 3-point range, he managed to put together two games with a combined 4-7 on 3-pointers. So far this season, you never know which Allen Crabbe is going to show up. He's had 11 games where he's shot .333, or less from 3-point range, including 7 games where he failed to make a single 3-pointer, but he also has 9 games where he's shot .400, or better, from 3-point range (league average is .352).

As mentioned, other than Turner, the biggest improvement over the last 5 games has been Ed Davis. He's showing glimpses of the old Ed, playing with more energy and rebounding with purpose. It's not just his minutes that are up, it's also his productivity. Since being inserted into the starting line up, he's had two double digit rebounding games, along with 9 rebounds last night. While his TRB% of 15.7 is still below his average of 17.4, and way short of his career best 19.3 from last season, at least it's headed in the right direction.

And, it's not just Ed's rebounding that's returning to form, he's also finishing much better around the basket. After averaging on 2.7 ppg on .389 FG% for his first 15 games, Ed has averaged 7.2 ppg on .640 FG% for the last 5. He's scored more points in the last 5 games than he did in the first 15. This is the Ed Davis I remember!

Meyers Leonard continues to be his inconsistent self, but at least the overall trend is upward. He's had his two best games of the season in the last 6 (14 pts/11 reb against BRK and 15 pts/9 reb against NOP), but has been a non-factor in the other four. Such is the enigma of Meyers Leonard. At least Coach Stotts seems to recognize when Leonard is playing well and when he is not and allocates his minutes accordingly.

Of course that begs the question is Meyers inconsistent because his playing time varies so much from night-to-night, or does his playing time vary because he's inconsistent? Which is the cause, and which is the effect? I think the sample size is big enough that we can point this finger at Meyers.

Some games, he seems mentally focused and engaged on both ends (usually when he's going head-to-head with a big low post center like DeMarcus Cousins, Brook Lopez or Marc Gasol). The rest of the time, he just seems to drift around the court without purpose. I honestly think someone should slap him across the face before every game to wake him up and get his attention. The line for this honor forms on the right, immediately behind @Mediocre Man.

I'll pass on commenting on Aminu and Vonleh. Of course, Aminu hasn't played in the last 5 games and Vonleh has only played 27 minutes of garbage time (mostly in the blowout loss to CLE). So, their impact on the team's success over the last five games spans the range from zero to insignificant.

I'll post updates every 10 games just to see how things are progressing. Based on recent play, I expect Evan Turner to permanently graduate from the single digit PER class of 2o16-17. I expect Ed Davis to be close on his heels. Meyers Leonard is getting close to making it. If he can continues to have 2 good games every 5, he'll make it (that's how low the bar is for PER = 10.0). Aminu should rapidly ascend once he returns. His sample size is very low (only 8 games). So, a few decently productive games should boost his PER into the double digits. Vonleh doesn't really matter at this point. He's fallen out of the rotation and only getting garbage time minutes. He'll only play significant minutes if we suffer multiple injuries.

Crabbe is the big unknown. He gets the most minutes of any of these guys and is really the biggest thing holding our bench back at this point. If he could only be modestly consistent in knocking down wide open 3-pointers, his PER would easily eclipse the magic 10.0 barrier (again that bar is pretty damn low). The problem is last year is the only time in his four year NBA career where he's had a PER greater than his current 9.1. So, is he the PER = 12.2 guy we saw last year, or did we really pay $75 million for this PER = 9.1 guy with an inconsistent outside shot who brings nothing else to the party. God, I hope not.

BNM

 

How did Aminu's PER change without playing at all?

 

The PER calculation is based on the league average production, which changes and is recomputed daily. Basically, the league as a whole is playing slightly better now than they were when I made my original post.

BNM

 

Me bitch slapping the shit out of Fabio is the best thing you've ever written.

 

I thought you'd like that. See, I'm not such a bad guy.

BNM

 

Here's an update after 33 games:

There's good news and bad news. The good news is we have cut our single digit PER rotation players from 5 to 4. The bad news is, I was wrong, we aren't getting better.

We still have four guys in our rotation that are producing at an abysmal rate, but the bigger problem is, none of the guys coming off the bench address any of the weaknesses in our starting line up - specifically defense. Most good teams have one, or more, guy(s) coming off the bench that compliment their starters. We don't have that. Our bench is just a much worse version of our starters, with the same weaknesses, but little of the strengths.

In order of minutes played:

Allen Crabbe:
After 15 Games: PER = 10.3
After 20 Games: PER = 9.1
After 33 Games: PER = 9.9
Change since 15 Games = -0.4
Change since 20 games = +0.8
2015-16 PER = 12.2
Year-to-Year Change = -2.3

Evan Turner:
After 15 Games: PER = 9.5
After 20 Games: PER = 11.8
After 33 Games: PER = 12.4
Change since 15 Games = +2.9
Change since 20 games = +0.6
2015-16 PER = 13.6
Year-to-Year Change = -1.2

Ed Davis:
After 15 Games: PER = 7.2
After 20 Games: PER = 9.3
After 33 Games: PER = 11.2
Change since 15 Games = +4.0
Change since 20 games = +1.9
2015-16 PER = 18.7
Year-to-Year Change = -7.5

Meyers Leonard:
After 15 Games: PER = 8.6
After 20 Games: PER = 9.6
After 33 Games: PER = 7.7
Change since 15 Games = -0.9
Change since 20 games = -1.9
2015-16 PER = 11.3
Year-to-Year Change = -3.5

Al-Farouq Aminu:
After 15 Games: PER = 8.3
After 20 Games: PER = 8.0
After 33 Games: PER = 7.9
Change since 15 Games = -0.4
Change since 20 games = -0.1
2015-16 PER = 12.7
Year-to-Year Change = -4.8

Noah Vonleh:
After 15 Games: PER = 7.6
After 20 Games: PER = 7.2
After 33 Games: PER = 8.0
Change since 15 Games = +0.4
Change since 20 games = +0.2
2015-16 PER = 8.6
Year-to-Year Change = -0.6

Yes, Evan Turner and Ed Davis are both now firmly in double digit PER territory. Allen Crabbe was given one start and immediately shot himself back to single digit PER land. But rather than quibble over minor changes in production since my last update, I have added back 2015-16 PERs for each player and how their production through 33 games this year compares to their seasonal rate of production for last year.

And, here's the problem and why I was wrong to think we'd get better. Every one of these six players is producing less, most of them significantly less, than last year. That's one starter and your top five bench guys all having down years all at the same time.

I set up a spreadsheet in Excel to compare production of these six players from last year to this year. Honestly, I thought production would be down in all areas - fewer points, fewer rebounds, fewer assists, fewer steals, etc. However, when I normalized their production for minutes played, that all melted away and it became obvious why our 5th starter plus 5 top bench players are producing so much worse this year than last.

When normalized for minutes played, these six players are collectively producing 6.2 fewer ppg this year than last, largely because their shooting percentages, both 2P% and 3P% are down. This is especially true of 2P%, which is down from .454 to .402. The only other significant drop off is collective assists per game (down from 9.1 to 7.8 when normalized f0r minutes played), but I believe, in this case, we can separate cause from effect. They are getting fewer assists, because they are missing a larger percentage of their shots.

I'm going to ignore FT shooting, since the change from last year to this is very minor and not significant enough to have much impact on overall scoring for this group.

If we just look at 2p%, 3P% and eFG%, here's the data for last year and this:

2015-16:
2P% = .454
3P% = .351
eFG% = .510
PPG = 43.9

2016-17:
2P% = .402
3P% = .333
eFG% = .466
PPG = 37.7

Now here's where it gets interesting, REALLY interesting. All six of these players have seen a decrease in their eFG% from last year to this. However, three of them are shooting reasonably close to the same eFG% this year as last and three have fallen off a cliff.

2015-16 eFG% vs. 2016-17 eFG:
Allen Crabbe: .541 - .537, difference = -.004
Evan Turner: .469 - .451, difference = -.018
Noah Vonleh: .441 - .430, difference = -.011

Al-Farouq Aminu: .503 - .382, difference = -.121
Ed Davis: .611 - .495, difference = -.116
Meyers Leonard: .527 - .450, difference = -.077

So, all six of these players have seen a decrease in PER compared to last year and all six have also seen a decrease in eFG%. The three that have seen the biggest drop in PER are also the same three that have seen the biggest drop, by far, in eFG%. They also happen to be our entire PF and back up center rotation.

First, Turner, and more recently Crabbe, have been the easy targets, due to the huge contracts they signed, but ironically, it's our big men that are killing us offensively with their incredibly poor shooting, not our back up wings. I took a circuitous route to get here, but I'm right back where I started. It is the play of our bigs that is killing us - at both ends of the court, especially the power forward and back up center positions. Yes, the entire team is killing us defensively. Dame and C.J. are bad defenders, but at least they score enough to help offset their defensive inadequacy.

So, we are back where we started. We need a trade to shore up our front court. We had the worst front court in the entire league last year, and they are significantly worse this year that last.

BNM

 

Jesus Christ man!

When are you gonna come to a meet and greet? There are several of us that discussed wanting to meet you!

 

Sorry I missed out on this last one. It looked like a lot of fun.

BNM

 

Here's an update after 82 games:

Ed Davis:
After 82 Games: PER = 11.5
2015-16 PER = 18.7
Year-to-Year Change = -7.2

Meyers Leonard:
After 82 Games: PER = 8.9
2015-16 PER = 11.3
Year-to-Year Change = -2.4

Al-Farouq Aminu:
After 82 Games: PER = 11.3
2015-16 PER = 12.7
Year-to-Year Change = -1.4

Noah Vonleh:
After 82 Games: PER = 10.8
2015-16 PER = 8.6
Year-to-Year Change = +2.2

This is why I'm bumping this old thread the day after the draft:

Adding Nurk helped, but Davis, Meyers and Aminu all had down years. Vonleh improved playing next to Nurk but he still has a long way to go before he can even be considered an average NBA player.

So, based on this old post and how weak the PF and back-up center positions were last year, drafting Collins and Swanigan makes a hell of a lot of sense. Collins can play both front court positions. He can play next to Nurk and he can also back him up. Swanigan can give us the scoring and rebounding we sorely lacked from the back up PF position last year.

Things just got crowded up front, but that's a good thing. Collins and Swanigan can come in and push our incumbents - they can push them to either get better or get pushed out of the rotation and maybe (hopefully) even get pushed right off the roster.

All season long, PF (both starting and bench) and back up center were clearly our biggest weaknesses. That's why I spent the last couple months lobbying for acquiring a solid back up 4/5 (like Kyle O'Quinn). Even with the additions of Collins and Swanigan, I'd still like to see us add someone like O'Quinn (cheap veteran 2-way role payer) and would happily jettison Davis and Leonard in the process. I'd refer to see Aminu back at his natural SF position, although it wouldn't break my heart to see him gone, too. Last year we just had too many guys playing too many minutes while contributing way too little.

Neil has addressed this issue by drafting Collins and Swanigan. It's definitely a good start.

BNM

 

This thread makes me miss jlprk's posts...twinkies in the closet is now a favorite of mine...thanks Homer!