OT The West’s top three teams...

PER doesn't really account for defense. Last year the Blazers were around 7th in defensive rating. This year they are 15th. To me that cancels out the offensive uptick.

 

So glad I started this thread. Im getting some major learnt here. Thanks guys for diving so deep into the numbers. Enjoying the reading.

 

Great observation and I would add a little experience helps too.

 

The score is the score. When a defense commits to holding your two starters under their season averages by 4 total points, somebody else has to make that up. The Blazers didn't have the horses to make that happen.

 

He ran into one the best D guards in the league, plus I believe some of his focus was with mom and kid.

 

Thats what separates the super stars from all stars. IMO, Dame is an all star and not a super star, yet anyway.

 

I'd really like to hear what it is that Stotts could/should be doing differently. The offense is based on two high octane guards either using screens to get free for a shot or a dribble-drive to break the defense and score, get the ball to a big for a shot at the rim, or kick out to an open three point shooter. That's the basics in a single sentence. Stotts and Olshey have looked to improve the chances of that offensive scheme by getting better three point shooters and another interior scorer. It sounds to me like you (and many others) are saying that you want an offensive scheme that is totally different, at least when the other team commits to shutting down Dame. What exactly do you want to see happen?

 

Are you suggesting that Nurk's defense isn't improved as well, because his blocks and steals are both up over last year. I'd say a chunk of that defensive slide was Harkless missing so many games. These past few games when he's been playing well, you can see what a defensive stud he is.

 

You keep saying their "two" scorers. The Pelicans only committed to stopping Dame not CJ, yet you keep including him. Besides when someone has a 38 point game in a 4 game size it makes the numbers a lot closer than they appear.

Watch, I can do that too:
Since the Blazers scored 123 points in their last game they averaged 105.5 points per game for the season. In the regular season they averaged 105.6. So by your logic the rest of the team (other than Dame and CJ) actually had 4 points more output than they did in the regular season. So it's not like they disappeared, they were better in the playoffs. This once again proves that Dame being shut down was in fact the reason we lost because the rest of the team's output was fine.

 

And I have stated numerous times that this team IS in fact better than last year's version. My argument all along is that the improvements are beneficial to regular season success and could potentially help in the playoffs but might not have a huge impact in the playoffs where teams are locked in on their strategies and stars like Dame need to at least come close to their regular season output to become an actual factor in the playoffs. If Dame only averages 18.5 points per game on 30% shooting with a horrible assist to turnover ratio it doesn't really matter what the rest of the team does. Now if he only averages 18.5 points per game super efficiently and is taking care of the ball then those role players could be a huge difference.

I don't know if I'm just not explaining it right but there is a massive discrepancy between Dame being taken out of a game by another team's defensive game plan and Dame not having to carry the team on his back.

 

I don't think Nurk's defense is that much better than last year but that is because I thought he was great on defense last year too. He single-handedly changed our defense from a historically bad one to a top-10 one last year. He was good both years in my opinion.

As for Harkless, he only played in 59 games last year and only started in 36. So sorry but your theory that him being out of the lineup this year is the reason for the down slide can easily be dismissed.

 

We've discussed this ad nauseam since the sweep last spring.

Play Dame off the ball.

Play through Nurk at the high post.

Run pick and rolls on the side.

Run pick and rolls with someone other than who their best defender is guarding.

Run pick and rolls in areas where you have a passing lane to a designated player who can quickly turn that double team into a 4-on-3 advantage.

Run picks off the ball instead of on it.

Play both Kanter and Nurk and punish teams physically by posting up whichever one has a smaller defender.

Let a bigger guard like Hood run the pick and roll where he can pass out of it easier.

I could go all day with this. There are teams that have been effective in blitzing Dame this year and we've done nothing scheme wise to adjust to it. This should have been the top priority in the off season. Fortunately for us for some reason most teams don't do it very often in the regular season. I guarantee we see it in the playoffs though.

 

The point that I made which you have conveniently ignored is there being a lack of teams having the defensive guards and a mobile big of AD's quality needed in order to effectively implement the defense the Pelicans employed against the Blazers last year. People always complain when others (myself included) note that last year was a matchup nightmare for the Blazers. Please explain which team we should be so in fear of this year.

 

I agree and another factor is, that Pelican team doesn't even exist anymore and likely not to make the playoffs so there is no history of another team scheming as effectively. Last year is last year this will be a new playoff series.

 

This whole conversation started talking about the Rockets being a good matchup for us. Paul and Capela (and Faried) would absolutely be effective in doing a similar thing to us. Just this year OKC has done it with George and Adams/Grant which has been effective too. The Kings in one of the games did it effectively with Fox and Cauley-Stein. The Lakers have Rondo and LeBron who would be similar to AD. The Warriors have Klay, Durant, and Green who could all effectively do it. The Nuggets could do it with Harris and Millsap. The Jazz could do it with Rubio and Gobert.

That leaves the Spurs and the Clippers as the only two that might not be able to. The Clippers just made a bunch of changes, who knows. The Spurs are fading fast and are in danger of not making the playoffs.

 

Heck, i guess we should go into tank mode and get the best pick we can. You painted a doom and gloom picture.

 

Paul isn’t nearly tall enough to keep Dame from getting his shot. Capela and Faried don’t have AD’s length. Your other suggestions are a real reach. Adams is plodding compared with AD. The Warriors have never attempted that defensive scheme in any of our regular season games or the two series we had with them. Could they, maybe but I think they take too much pride in their individual defense. LeBron and Rondo? Sure for short spurts, but it would be insane to ask LeBron to put out that much defensive effort for a whole series at his age. They may not even make the playoffs. The Kings? No. Not for a series.

And the question still exists: if the Blazers are as weak because of this chink in their armor as you suggest, what should Stotts do about it? Or are we DOOOOOMED!?

 

Maybe you missed this whole post.

 

For fuck's sake Cup, not once in this thread have I said anything about us not being better than last year. My point from the very beginning has been that in the regular season they don't get teams taking away Dame like teams have been able to do in the playoffs. The Blazers better be prepared with an answer to combat it when it pops up this post season. Simply hoping this year will be different because we aren't playing AD is fucking stupid and any coach who even thinks for a split second like that doesn't deserve to coach in the NBA. So I really hope they've been working on a solution.