Thorpe Chat on Oden/Durant

Actually, I was thinking Durant in his prime might put up numbers (well, scoring numbers) in the Domique Wilkins, George Gervine range. But, neither of those guys won a title either.

The other thing those two guys had in common with Durant is a relatively low PER/PPG ratio. Guys who are primarily volume scores tend to have a lower PER than PPG (PER/PPG < 1.0). Players who can score, but also contribute in other significant ways tend to have a higher PER than PPG (PER/PPG > 1.0)

For example, every year he's been in the league, Brandon Roy has had a PER/PPG > 1.0. Durant had a PER/PPG significantly < 1.0 in his rookie season, and does again this year.

Code:

Player             Season        PER        PPG        PER/PPG
Brandon Roy        2006-07       18.0       16.8         1.07
                   2007-08       19.4       19.1         1.02
                   2008-09       24.4       22.5         1.08
Kevin Durant       2007-08       15.8       20.3         0.78
                   2008-09       19.0       23.8         0.80

Roy is the kind of player that does more than score to help his team win. Durant, so far, is basically a volume scorer on a losing team. I don't think Durant will ever be the leader on a championship contender. His play is too one dimensional. However, he'd be an excellent second option on a championship caliber team.


BNM

 

LMAO. I would take Kobe, Wade, Roy, JJ and Carter, maybe even Mayo over Manu

 

that's a great stat, where did you get it from?

 

I made it up. Just a personal observation. And as BrianFromWA pointed out the 1.0 number is a bit arbirtary. What I should have said is guys who are primarily volume scorers tend to have a PER/PPG significantly less than 1.0.

Michael Jordan had a career PER/PPG of 0.99. Early in his career, Jordan had a PER/PPG significantly less than 1.0. Coincidentally, the first time he had a PER/PPG > 1.0 was 1990-91 - the first year the Bulls won an NBA title.

Obviously, Jordan was a VERY complete player. A great scorer, but also great and many other things. Since PER and PPG are both heavily offensively biased stats, a player could be a GREAT defender (as Jordan was) , still have a PER/PPG less than 1.0 and be consider a great all-around player.

For a player to average more than 20 PPG and still have a PER/PPG greater than 1.0 indicates he is an efficient scorer and/or makes significant contributions in other areas (rebounds, assists, steals, etc.). Guys like Lebron James (PER./PPG = 1.18), Chris Paul (PER/PPG = 1.51), Dwight Howard (PER/PPG = 1.30), Brandon Roy (PER/PPG = 1.08) and Tim Duncan (PER/PPG = 1.19) fit this description. Guys like Kevin Durant (PER/PPG = 0.80), Danny Granger (PER/PPG = 0.86), Carmelo Anthony (PER/PPG = 0.86) and Ben Gordon (PER/PPG = 0.83) don't.

That's not to say the latter group aren't very good players. They are all great scoers, and most teams would be happy to have them. They just aren't as good at other aspects of the game, beyond scoring, as the guys in the first group.

BNM

 

And we should have taken Chris Paul instead of Martell Webster... and we should have taken Al Jefferson instead of Sebastian Telfair... and we should have taken Michael Jordan instead of.... blah blah blah.

 

Durant = best player on a bad team. I bet if Oden had played all of last year like Durant, and had a green light to shoot whenever he felt like it, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

How many quality small forwards' names have been bandied around in trade talks this year? Wallace, Howard, Marion, Deng, Butler....pretty much every one that isn't an All-Star this year.

How many quality centers are candidates for trades? Brad Miller and, uh.....

Even if Oden winds up being 80% of the player Durant is, he's still the better choice. Quality SF's can be traded for or signed. Quality centers? Exceedingly rare.

Assuming the major injury issues are behind him (a pretty big assumption, I'll admit) Oden was the best pick.