I was thinking about this last night...wondering why not even the homeriest of we homers predicted that the Blazers would be anywhere near this effective this season. I'm way too lazy to go back and look for one of the record prediction threads, but I think that in October if anyone had said that the Blazers would be 18-4 at this point in the season, even Mags would have told them to put down their rose-colored glasses (should that be Moda-colored glasses now?). None of the NBA insider "experts" saw this coming either. So, what gives? A few thoughts, but no real conclusions: 1. I think the LMA factor is the biggest reason for the improvement. Playing along side a true center certainly has helped, but it just seems to me that we're seeing a guy who is now fully engaged in being the number one player on a contending team. He's worked hard to add to his game and I think that's showing major results, but I have to think some of it is just the psychological impact of now having the horses around him to really have a chance to excel. It couldn't have been easy to maintain focus the last few years without having more than 3-4 other NBA caliber players around him. 2. Wesley Matthews. I mean, damn, we knew he could shoot but this year he's just been money...well until the last couple of games. I don't know whether to attribute this to his hard work in the summer, just a pure hot streak that will fall back to norms, or perhaps the fact that he's always had this potential but has been limited the last couple of years by playing on constantly sprained ankles. Whatever, keep stroking the ball, Wesley. 3. Damian Lillard's maturation and natural progression is a factor. He was great last year and he's now even more in tune with the NBA and his teammates. 4. Nic's growth as a play-maker. Having a guy like him at the SF spot who can really set up his teammates is a huge benefit to the team. His Batman to Robin plays have been something I've really enjoyed. 5. Stotts' changed offensive and defensive schemes, coupled with having guys that can really defend the middle and block shots like Lopez, Freeland (talk about found money), and Robinson instead of J.J.'s matador defense is really changing things. No, we're not a defensive juggernaut, but light years better than last year. Those are a few things I've noticed. Other ideas?
Actually I honestly meant 18-2. As for your assessment… I agree with all of them. Batum has become the facilitator and utility knife for this ball club. Lopez has become one of the biggest improvements to solidify offensive rebounding and defense. Matthews has been completely unconscious. Lillard can still improve, shooting such a low % close to the basket. If that improves to a respectable level, he will be a monster!
I would say that Wesley's shooting is due for a regression to the mean ... maybe that means he falls all the way to about 40% on threes and 45% overall (which would still be good compared to his career averages) but I don't think his hit rate is sustainable and when that dip happens (because shooters almost always have ups and downs) it might change the spacing on the floor and trim some points from the final tally. Defensively I think might be where I see the biggest difference. I wouldn't call them a "good" defensive team, but their strategy of surrendering the mid-range and focusing on denying the three isn't a bad way to play the numbers when you don't have a lot of great defensive players. On the other hand, this is maybe a good demonstration of the limits of statistical projections and models. Discreet phenomena can and will defy probability at times because small sample sizes aren't governed by the "law of large numbers."
This is the biggest IMHO. Having a coherent system with parts that fit and getting guys to buy into that (even to the detriment of their own stats) is HUGE.
I compared the differences between those end-of-season losses and this season's team in another thread. In gist: LA, Wes, and Batum missed a combined 20 games in the final 13, and only played together in 2 games. Maynor's on/off the court numbers this season are garbage, and playing only 10 min instead of the 20 something he did for Portland. Babbit, Jeffries, N. Smith, Pavlovic aren't even NBA players this season. Freeland was the MVP of training camp and showed vast improvement in the pre-season. Meyers, Baton, and Claver were starting games for Portland in the last 13 games and averaging 36+ minutes at times. They each haven't played in more than 3-4 games where they played more than 1 minute. The Blazer are playing a completely different style of pick-n-roll defense. Wright, TReb, Mo weren't on the team and play vital back up minutes this season. Portland didn't have a legit starting center last season. These are all variables that I accounted for, and anyone who took 1 minutes to look at a cue card with those points written on it would not keep repeating the same crap and looking at the way last season ended as a barometer for how the Blazers would fair this season.
