Time for a little second guessing

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by Denny Crane, Jul 24, 2012.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The bulls effectively traded Asik's $5M salary for Hinrich and Belinelli. Sorry, but I wouldn't make that trade, EVER, if it were a basketball decision.

    It's leaking out that Hinrich is to be paid $8M over the next two seasons. Yikes! That's exactly what OJ Mayo signed for. Picture... end of quarter and who's going to take the final shot? Hinrich isolation play, FTW.

    It seems the Bulls are going to pay the LT, but only a little. If the strategy is to wait out Rose's injury, it seems to me that using the LT spending to keep Asik and a quality roster around until then, and then decide how to shuffle the deck chairs. The tradeoff in keeping Asik is in year 3 we'd pay the LT instead of this year. And only for a year, because Asik's $15M is for just the one season, and he likely won't earn another contract with a paycheck near that.

    Hinrich at $4M or CJ at $3M? CJ every time.

    Meanwhile, the champion Heat signed Ray Allen. The Lakers went out and signed Steve Nash. The Bulls were players for the dregs once again.

    I like Luol Deng a lot, and Noah, too, but the Bulls didn't trade one of them for better Cap situation AND a couple of players who'd contribute right away. If the CBA contracts amounts work out, you really do have to give up quality to get quality in a trade.

    I suppose if all things go right, our starting lineup for the playoffs could be:
    Rose, Rip, Noah, Deng, Boozer

    That's exactly where we were this past season. The Bulls didn't like that lineup as a contender last year, though, and again did nothing about it then.

    What about the bench? Gibson is an A bench guy. Belinelli is OK. Teague is unknown. Nazr was never great and now he's really old. And 24 minutes of Captain Kirk. No matter how you look at it, the bench has become a major downgrade.

    Sorry for the rant.
     
  2. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    As we all know, these kinds of discussions are tricky. You can all agree on what happened but argue until the cows come home about their implications because of small differences in our expectations and frame of reference.

    I think everyone knows what I'm talking about.

    As far as how I feel about this offseason, it's mostly pessimistic but not quite as dour as it was 7 days ago. I think we're clearly a lesser team than last year, primarily due to the loss of Asik.

    I'm neutral/slightly optimistic about the other changes. Financial considerations were definitely a part of it, but IMO there was a basketball rationale behind all of them. I don't necessarily see it

    I'd guess my mood won't be entirely complete until after the trade deadline, because then we'll know for sure whether or not the intention was entirely to cut costs (meaning getting rid of Rip for nothing in return) or to cost effectively replace the overpaid parts of our roster.

    As a fan I wish Reinsdorf was more like Cuban or Jerry Buss, but we all know that's not in the cards. I don't like it, but what am I going to do.....bang my head against the wall until he kicks the bucket? Life's too short.

    To me all the changes look manageable, with the exception of Asik. For next year it's certainly a loss. The long term benefits are harder to tell because it all depends on the counter-factual. Counterfactuals are mere projections of your own priorities and assumptions, so arguing over them is likely to be a fruitless endeavor that leads everyone to be more firmly in their own corner than before everyone started.

    I'm honestly not sure what to expect out of next season. I'm just bummed Derrick had to blow out his knee and inject so much uncertainty into future plans. It's a complete buzzsaw for an organization with such conservative scruples.

    As for the FA stuff.....I think people are overreacting because of unmet expectations this offseason. Chicago isn't New York, LA, or Miami, but it's probably better than any other city in the league. Ben Wallace was the biggest FA that offseason, and we had the second best booty of any team in 2010 besides Miami. It's not like it didn't get us the best record in the NBA 2 seasons in a row...

    Rip wanted to come here as well. I know we're all upset because we didn't get any marquee guys, but that's mostly because no one decided to sign for less money than they could get elsewhere.

    So......I'm kind of mum.

    I think when we have time to digest everything it won't seem so bad, although I'm sure the season will have more ups and downs than the last two so people's mood will be changing more often.

    At this point I feel pretty "c'est la vie" about the whole thing.

    And I actually think the title of thread is misleading. It doesn't really cause me to second guess anything. It just reaffirms some stuff we already knew.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I loved your post, rosenthall.

    The second guessing is "we should have kept Asik." And we should have signed OJ Mayo instead of Captain Kirk. And we should have kept CJ, since we really (still!) need a starting PG. And that we should have traded Deng for cap relief, a useful player, and a nice draft pick.

    You raise an interesting question about Rip. I cannot fathom some team taking Rip and the remaining $$$ of his contract in exchange for nothing. The Bulls would have to do something like Deng for $8M-$9M in return, Noah for $8M-$9M in return, Boozer for $12M in return. That sort of thing. You're right about the trade deadline, though. That's when that kind of deal would happen, if my instincts are right.
     
  4. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    What about Ripster for Reddick

    We take an extra $1m on which compensates the $1m buyout of Ripster's 3rd year

    We get a better fit in JJ - another deep shooter to stack with Bellinelli and a guy who is a hustle defender. No a stopper , but he leaves it out there.
     
  5. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    And we were never going to match Omer as he would have had us over the apron in his last contract year .

    And there are going to be a motherload of teams under the cap , and the apron , in 2014 and 2015 that will have much greater flexibility compared to any team that is over the apron ( $74.3m ) that pretty much take you out the trade market ( sign and trade market ) and kill your exceptions

    This is the real reason Omer didn't get matched IMO

    Where GarPax fucked up is not reading the poison pill wild card in misjudging his market and the contingency which became actual in what faced them.

    The result - no return on a valuable asset.

    And for that they deserve an ass kicking
     
  6. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    And I guess in exchange for a 2 year $8m deal Kurt has to hand over the negatives of The Chairman with that Shetland Pony
     
  7. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    $8m should give us a lt of thrust though
     
  8. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    It seems from the beginning that Bulls' management viewed Hinrich as the centerpiece of this offseason. As an experienced starting PG who can also play SG, I can understand the Bulls' interest. I also greatly respected Hinrich's game when he was with the Bulls. This said, he doesn't make a very exciting centerpiece.

    As the centerpiece, Watson had to go. Regardless of what any of us think, it is crystal clear that Bulls' management think that Hinrich is a considerably better player than Watson.

    I'm more hopeful on the Korver-Belinelli exchange. I wasn't a big Korver fan. They wanted more offensive versatility and they got it.

    Radmanovich is just a resounding meh.

    As I've already said, the replacement of Asik with Nazr is just one big kick in the teeth. The Bulls will not be the dominant defensive and rebounding team they've been the past two seasons.

    The Bulls could have been a better team this coming season, but decided not to be in the interest of future (2014) flexibility. It's hard to root for future flexibility.
     
  9. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I think management decided to keep Asik because it increased their odds of winning a championship during the playoffs.

    Then Rose got injured. Whoops.

    My intuition is that the Bulls will pay top dollar to keep a team together, but they have to go all the way before they step into the financial abyss.

    Of course that creates a Chicken and Egg problem.

    So keeping Asik was placing a bet on the option value that last year's team had it in them to go all the way. In that sense it was a calculated risk that didn't work out.
     
  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'll play these.
     
  11. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I read that Rose and Noah lobbied to management to bring Hinrich back. Go figure

    Pretty much agree with all of you Asik leaving hurt us. His length really helped us! Barring any injuries I look for Gibson to play more, even back up center when Nazr isnt doing it for us.

    The bench is not as strong as it was, but with the new CBA we could not pay last seasons bench what they were paid.

    On paper we took a step back and that is sad. Most teams that were as good as we were for two seasons in a row, tweak to get better! Not us. No not us.
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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  13. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Ya I saw that the other day. Not surprising his love for the WS surpasses the Bulls. Always has.
     

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