Time for a Major Shakeup

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Gronk Brady, Dec 2, 2018.

  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus This is what it looks like when a platypus cries. Staff Member Moderator

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    Excellent first post. Welcome to RipCityTwo!
     
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  2. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    WTH? You have waited 10 years to post and you can't come up with anything positive??!! :)
     
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  3. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Olshey hasn’t made a significant move since he traded Plumlee for Nurkic. That was two seasons ago. He got Paul Allen to buy into build through osmosis bullshit, and now is probably going to see his contract through. Con man only worried about his job security. Aldridge leaving was the perfect opportunity for him to sell his boss on a 5 year plan. A 5 year plan that leveled out two years ago. But he got his steady paycheck so..

    DED62F89-BFA2-4C83-850C-747322048CA4.jpeg
     
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  4. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I'm not directing this at you, but I'm sick of the Clipper thing being brought up so much in the past couple days. We were blowing them out in Game 4 and even without the injuries were likely about to even the series at 2-2. The Clippers were notorious chokers who had blown 2-0 series leads before. We'll never know what would have happened had both teams been at full strength.

    If we are going to go down that road, the Blazers were the hottest team in the league after the All-Star break of the 2016-17 season and lost both Nurk and Davis to injuries. The one game in the playoffs Nurk played on one leg they almost beat the Warriors. The what-if game can go on forever.

    We also don't know what role Paul Allen had in both the contracts of 2016 (Chris Haynes said it was Allen who decided immediately without hesitation to match the Crabbe offer) and we also don't know what instructions he left in place after he passed away. This isn't excusing Olshey, I just think that is the most likely reason he wasn't fired after that off-season.
     
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  5. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    What a crappy, post. It's so shortsighted.
     
  6. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, his 5 year plan did start when Aldridge left but he wasn't expecting the team to still make the playoffs. Normally you would assume if a team lost 4 of its 5 starters that they'd be tanking or have a high lottery pick but because they made the playoffs they lost their pick as part of the Afflalo trade.
     
  7. Gronk Brady

    Gronk Brady Well-Known Member

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    I disagree... its the opposite of shortsighted
     
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  8. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    He's big on another board. He just copied and pasted what he's typed a hundred times there. Good poster, though.
     
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  9. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    He should’ve gotten more aggressive in speeding up the process, something he even admitted himself this past offseason (not being proactive at the deadline, need for acquiring playoff tested players, etc.) Then he went and did absolutely nothing about it, yet somehow still survived.

    It’s way past time for a significant trade, a firing, or both.
     
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  10. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I agree that after the Nurk trade, it's pretty much been a disaster. The only hope is that Zach and Anfernee turn into stars. He did try to get PG13 last summer. It's a different argument to say he should have sped up the process instead of your original comment that he should have started the 5 year plan after Aldridge left.
     
  11. yuyuza1

    yuyuza1 Writing Team

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    There is no five year plan. If he didn't fall ass backwards into Nurkic, he'd have very few positives going for him.
     
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  12. HCP

    HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    That’s like telling everybody you have a hot girlfriend.......in Canada.
     
  13. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Well, what are you saying then? If you have a plan to rebuild, and the team shows that it’s better than you thought, wouldn’t the correct play be to speed up the process? The rebuild flies out the window when you’re consistently in the playoffs. We’ve been floating in mediocrity with no real direction in sight.
     
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  14. Labinot41

    Labinot41 Well-Known Member

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    Whats up wiz how you doing? I know you from RealGM and i love your posts, welcome on ripcity2 man! I know you're a big CJ critic and a critc of the Dame/CJ backcourt pairing, i'm with you on that
     
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  15. Labinot41

    Labinot41 Well-Known Member

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    Guys Wiz is Boss, he's been telling the truth for years about this Roster, CJ and most of all Olshey
     
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  16. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I'm saying that clearly the plan was to rebuild using a 5 year plan, the failure was to adjust the plan correctly when the team turned out better than expected. However, getting from the point the Blazers are at into contention is one of the most difficult things to do in sports.
     
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  17. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    What's new? We always disagree.
     
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  18. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Active Member

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    and yet, for this season:

    TS%: CJ .552....Dame .582
    PER: CJ 16.7....Dame 24.8
    Assist Rate: CJ 11.4%....Dame 29.6%
    winshare/48: CJ .095....Dame .205
    Box Plus/Minus: CJ -0.4....Dame +5.6
    Value Over Replacement: CJ 0.3....Dame 1.6

    there are a lot of factors that go into winning streaks and losing streaks, not just a single shooting efficiency number

    there is also another factor, and it's a big one: CJ drafts off of the defensive focus opponents invest in Dame. He always has. We've seen it over and over...teams put their best perimeter defender on Lillard and quite often, they double Dame and jump screens. They almost never do that with CJ. Denver put their best defender, Gary Harris on Dame, and they doubled him constantly. Meanwhile, they allowed open driving lanes to CJ, obviously believing that CJ was not capable of beating them on his own. He wasn't

    More and more we're seeing teams use the same strategy on Portland that the Pelicans used in the playoffs: make life miserable for Dame and don't let him beat them. It works because there's no other player on the roster capable of carrying the team like Dame can.

    Remember when CJ 'burst' onto the scene in the 2015 playoffs against Memphis? He had a great series posting great numbers. Meanwhile, Memphis swarmed over Dame using Tony Allen and Mike Conley and constant doubles. But while CJ had a great series, his team got waxed. (and reportedly, Olshey was a lot more excited about being "right" about CJ then he was disappointed about the Blazers being crushed). Fast forward a few playoffs to the Pelicans last season. Once again CJ had a great series...but the team got swept and looked terrible.

    CJ is a classic empty stats guy. He doesn't make his team or his teammates better. He just gets his and he pounds the hell out of the ball to get it

    CJ's assist rate progression:

    2015-16 - 21.6%
    2016-17 - 18.%
    2017-18 - 15.8%
    2018-19 - 11.4%

    That's a horrible trend-line, and it's really not winning basketball when a player has as high a usage rate and is as much a ball-stopper as CJ is. There was an article on Blazers Edge last season based upon Synergy data that showed that among frequent scorers, CJ averaged more dribbles and longer time on possessions then anybody else in the NBA...and the gaps between him and the 2nd ranked player weren't close.

    CJ kind of reminds me of Martell Webster. Not in style as they were completely different players. But Webster had about the greatest shooting stroke you ever could see. The form was perfect, the release was optimal. It made people expect great things and overrate him because of his shooting style. But Webster's shooting results never lived up to the perception established by his form. He was only a career 38% from the arc and only 42% overall. I think a similar overrating has happened with CJ. He's a very clever ball-handler that has crossover dribbles and rocker steps galore. Sometimes he looks unstoppable in iso and it has made people actually overrate his impact significantly in my view. Maybe CJ's biggest problem, other than his ball-hog habits, is he can't get to the FT line.

    add it all together: CJ has a high usage rate; he dribbles a ton and burns thru shot clock; he doesn't pass the ball or find open teammates; he doesn't get to the FT line leaving him with only average shooting efficiency. What is there to like? CJ is not a good one-on-one player but that's what he does most often. On the other hand, CJ is elite in spot-up shooting. What CJ should be doing is running off screens a lot more and dribbling a lot less. His game should be a lot more like Klay Thompson's and a lot less like Dame's, but it's not. Stotts should throttle CJ way back but he doesn't. Olshey should trade CJ but he won't. I should end this and I will.
     
  19. yuyuza1

    yuyuza1 Writing Team

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    This is a nice narrative, but it's also disingenuous. CJ's usage has also dropped every year since then and over the past two years, he has barely played any time as PG or primary ball handler.

    Time at PG:
    2015: 34%
    2016: 30%
    2017: 9%
    2018: 0 !
     
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  20. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Active Member

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    let's unpack that. Since 2015-16, CJ's usage rate has dropped 4.7%; meanwhile, his assist rate has dropped 47.2%. Look at those numbers and tell me who is being "disingenuous"

    and where are you getting those PG numbers from. I don't really believe them nor do I think it matters much....

    assist rates:

    Jusuf Nurkic 13.4
    Nik Stauskas 13.3
    CJ McCollum 11.4
    Meyers Leonard 10.7

    I could be wrong, but I'd bet Nurkic and Meyers haven't played PG either
     
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