Trade Grades: Blazers Send Mason Plumlee To Nuggets For Jusuf Nurkic

http://basketball.realgm.com/analys...-Mason-Plumlee-From-Portland-For-Jusuf-Nurkic

Grading The Deal: Nuggets Acquire Mason Plumlee From Portland For Jusuf Nurkic
by Keith P Smith

Feb 12, 2017 6:21 PM


The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers linked up for the NBA's second Plumlee trade in the last week or so. The Nuggets sent Jusuf Nurkic and the Memphis Grizzlies' protected 2017 first round pick to Portland for Mason Plumlee and Portland’s 2018 second round pick. More so than most trades, this deal was about both on court impact and off the court bookkeeping, in terms of cap sheets and Luxury Tax payments. One other interesting wrinkle is that these two division rivals are battling for the eighth seed in the Western Conference and it is rare to see two teams with similar goals making a trade.

Denver had been looking for a new home for Nurkic for some time now as he no longer fit in with the Nuggets plans. Denver had initially started Nurkic this season alongside Nikola Jokic, but the pairing never quite worked. Neither is truly quick enough to defend along the perimeter and that caused the team to struggle against stretch 4 types. Denver rather quickly moved back to lineups with Jokic in the middle surrounded by the shooting of Danilo Gallinari or a more traditional power forward in Kenneth Faried or Darrell Arthur.

On the court, Denver likely sees Plumlee as a good backup for Jokic, as well as someone they can pair him with on the court for short stretches. While Plumlee can’t defend that well on the perimeter, he’s at least passable for 5-10 minutes a game alongside Jokic. He’s also athletic enough to fit in the up tempo scheme the Nuggets prefer to run, where Nurkic was a plodder who no longer quite fit.

Plumlee is also an excellent passer. That allows Denver to run the same system when he’s in the game in place of Jokic, whose high post passing has become a staple of the Denver offense. All around, Plumlee is a better fit for the Nuggets than Nurkic on both ends of the floor.

Off the court, Plumlee is an impending restricted free agent. Denver will have the right to match any offers he gets in free agency to retain him, or they could work out a new deal for him themselves. His cap hold reduces Denver’s cap space by about $3 million dollars for this summer. Given the Nuggets flexibility, that isn’t a huge impediment to anything they want to accomplish this summer.

The Grizzlies' pick the Nuggets gave up had sliding protections. It is 1-5 protected this year and with Memphis highly unlikely to fall anywhere near that low, Portland will receive that pick this year. It isn’t a huge loss for Denver, as they just drafted three rookies last season and added them to a roster that already included youngsters in Jokic, Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay. The Nuggets are unlikely to have so much youth on the team at once, so this move helps to remedy that.

Grade for Denver: B

The Portland side of the trade is a little more cut and dry. On the court, Plumlee wasn’t providing the defensive resistance the Blazers needed and his ball handling and passing ability wasn’t as needed with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Evan Turner (when healthy) covering those duties.

Nurkic should provide Portland the rebounding and interior defense they had hoped to get from Festus Ezeli, who has been unable to play, in the paint. The Blazers wanted a rugged big man on the back line and Nurkic should be able to provide that presence. He’s not a tremendous defender, but he is an upgrade over Plumlee in terms of being able to bang inside.

On offense, Nurkic should give Portland the inside finisher they have lacked for large parts of the year. The Trail Blazers have been without a big with the ability to post up for quite some time now. While that will never be a huge part of the Portland offensive system, it is a nice wrinkle to be able to go to occasionally. What the Blazers lose in ball handling and passing, they more than make up for with inside scoring and that should pair well with their already solid perimeter play.

But, make no mistake about it, this trade was at least as motivated by off the court factors as anything on the court. Portland has one of the most expensive rosters in the league heading into next season. Damian Lillard’s deal is pricey and C.J. McCollum’s near max contract extension kicks in next year. Add to that the money the Blazers invested to retain Allen Crabbe, Mo Harkless and Meyers Leonard and gave to Turner as a free agent, and you have a team that is well over the Luxury Tax line. With Plumlee due for a new contract, the Blazers were poised to be one of the most expensive teams in the history of the game. They’ll still pay the Luxury Tax, but the penalty will be less severe now.

Acquiring Nurkic allows Portland to skip a new deal for Plumlee and retain a player with team control left for at least another season. Adding an additional pick gives them flexibility in the draft, not dissimilar to what Denver had this past year. Portland will now have three picks (their own, Cleveland’s and Memphis’). None will be high lottery picks, but they will have the ability to replace players on the roster with players on Rookie Scale deals. And they also have currency to use in trade.

Neil Olshey had a tricky summer staring him in the face and has now maneuvered enough to give Portland far more flexibility than they previously had.

Grade for Portland: A

 

You don't know. I don't know either. It is a little comical the way we are talking about Nurkic based on his highlights and his stats. Sure his stats show he has regressed, he was injured his 2nd year and this year he came off the bench because he is sitting behind a future star in this league. As I recall we talked shit about Plumlee when we traded for him too. We had no clue what we were getting. We don't know now either.

 

Everyone seems to agree Nurkic regressed this year, but the per 36 minute stats seem to show it isn't that bad really:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nurkiju01.html

Blocks are down and drtg is way down. He's widely believed to just give up given his reduced role, and those are stats where you could see that showing up. But it's not likely he's suddenly forgotten how to play.

Portland has a really good recent history of getting the most out of players' talents. We do well with fixer-uppers. Plumlee has already reached his max, Nurkic clearly hasn't.

 

I think this will end up being one of those trades where both teams are happy with what they got.

 

Nurkic is better than both of those guys.

 

Except Nurkic is miles better than both of them.

 

So basically the article quoted in OP assumes that we will not keep picks anyway because we will need to reduce our salaries, despite the fact that we have moved out of luxury tax possibility with this trade as Plumlee will not command $15M+ next season here anymore, and that Nurkic somehow does not answer our defensive problems and will even emphasize them with Plumlee leaving despite him being by far a better defender (and it's not even questionable, is it?). Seems legit.

Ah but even though Blazers need a defensive-minded center even more with Plumlee leaving (which suggests he was one) it does not solve Nuggets defensive issues. What sort of logic?

 

As just a straight up swap, I think it is even Steven.

When you factor in that we were going to lose plums for nada, it's a home run.

Duh!

 

I mean realistically, getting a 2nd for plums is better than letting him walk.

 

Plumlee is really undervalued. Nurkic is talented, but a shitty ass teammate, who pouted and malcontented his way out of Denver. Chemistry matters.

 

And a #1 pick in a supposedly loaded draft. For a guy we weren't going to keep. On a team going nowhere. What do you want, two #1s? A lotto pick? For a backup center?

Home run.

 

Undervalued by who?

 

Some of the fans. Plumlee is better than Nurkic, right now

 

Bonus: the nuggets likely have the inside track to the #8 seed. Blazers pick could end up top 10.

I mean shit MM, this trade is right in your wheelhouse, be happy for once!

 

Getting a first for a guy we were losing anyway, is a no brainer. Adding a 22 year old cwnter with some attitude makes it even better. I was just sparking controversy.

 

I don't think many people are saying this isnt true.

But Nurk and a #1 are better than nothing, right?

 

Word

 

Realistically better than anything we could have hoped for

 

Now if the Blazers can start losing consistently, maybe we can start building something nice

 

This is where I'm at too. I was expecting either matching a crazy offer, letting him walk, or maybe like a 2nd or two.

Neil knocked this one out of the park.