Uh oh, Aldridge is an awesome post defender

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TowelBoy, Mar 4, 2013.

  1. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    The league is rarely about individual defense anymore. A bad defensive gameplan can make good defenders look like bad ones. Batum and Matthews are above average defenders, but they look like below average ones in the Blazer system.
     
  2. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    OMG, mags. You clearly don't understand how to interpret stats...or even how to think about them. All you see is a number and believe that it must be saying whatever it's attempting to say. You should really try to think about what's at work when you're using stats, rather than believing in them so wholeheartedly.

    So, according to this new stat teams shoot 43.9% from close range when LMA is within 5' of the hoop. That's good for 5th in the NBA. That's pretty good! But this doesn't tell you as much as you think it does. It certainly doesn't mean that LMA is the 5th best post defender in the NBA. Why not? Well, for one, LMA is RARELY within 5' of the hoop when a shot is taken from close range - he ranks #37 on the list in this regard. A great post defender would be IN THE POST PROTECTING THE HOOP a lot more than LMA is. Also, given that LMA rarely leaves his man a certain % of the 221 "shots faced" - probably a majority, though we don't have the data - are being taken by the guy he's guarding. Given that LMA is given the easiest defensive assignment, he's generally guarding bigs with lower FG%s and lesser skills - they probably shoot better than 43.9%, but again we don't have the data. Hoopdata breaks it down by "at rim" and "3'-9'", which doesn't really capture "within 5'" - perhaps averaging out the two HD percentages, and then compiling the numbers for LMA's defensive assignments would give us a better idea of just how well he's doing? I have no doubt that he's holding his opponent to a respectable FG% around the hoop. But this new stat doesn't make a case for LMA being the 5th best post defender, he just ranks 5th in OppFG% when he's within 5' of the hoop - that's it.

    Looking at Appendix 2b we see that LMA is ranked #19 is Proximal FG% - that is, the FG% of shots taken when LMA is within 5' of the shot. Even this doesn't say as much as you think it might. Just by looking at the other names/ranks on the list we ought to see that there's more at play and the stat is misleading. Do you really think that LMA is a better defender than KG, Collison, Chandler, Dalembert, Noah, Asik, Gortat, etc? Is Bargnani the 2nd best defender in the league?

    Just because this stat came out of MIT doesn't mean that it measures what they're trying to measure. You've got a brain, I encourage you to use it. Stats are a whole lot more than just a number - there's a whole lot of noise in them and you have to ask yourself what's being measured, what's not being measured, and what peripheral actions are affecting the measurement.
     
  3. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Point proven. Thanks blue9!
     
  4. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    So, you're not going to try using that brain, eh?
     
  5. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    You mean like this?


    Hickson is actually worse defending other PFs and saying Hickson is a better defender is laughable
     
  6. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    Try having a thought of your own for once, please.
    Also, note that I wasn't saying that Hickson WAS better, I was merely wondering how things would look if the roles were reversed. I'm willing to buy into LMA being the better man-defender (as I've said!) - but it's not as black/white as you think it is with your simpleton view on statistics.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2013
  7. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    I don't understand what you mean. I mean isn't that your post? Isn't this what you think? I mean if you are accusing peeps for not using their brain and post a gem like this; how seriously can we respect that you are heeding your own advice?
     
  8. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Then again, there are other posts that have things like this.


    I just don't understand blue9. So are we going to use our brain or our imagination?
     
  9. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    But then again, I understand you have a huge Batum love fest; calling Batum a better player than Aldridge.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/04/nba-trail-blazers-spurs-nicolas-batum.html
     
  10. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    So nobody should ever have a thought that's incorrect? We should only form ideas that are completely, 100% accurate at the time they're conceptualized? Gadzooks! Now I understand why you're so unwilling to think!
    It's lunch time and arguing with you is like arguing with a door knob.
     
  11. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Now you are understanding the concept of opinions! Now you are getting somewhere. Next time you pout that someone has to use their brain, keep in mind you must heed your own advice. This is a forum and we are all entitled to our opinions. So stop throwing rocks in a glass house.

    And no they aren't accurate. In fact, Aldridge has shown he is an excellent man on man defender and helps alter shots when he is close to the basket
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2013
  12. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    There are opinions, there are facts, and there are stats. You seem to always confuse stats with facts. Just put some thought into what goes into a stat before you go believing them. I gave you examples of how this stat doesn't adequately measure post-defense and you do what you do by throwing out an army of straw men rather than addressing the FACT that the STAT doesn't do a good job of what it sets out to do. You look at the #s, see LMA at #5 and conclude - without any thought - that LMA is the 5th best post-defender in the league.
    You may not always agree with me, and I may not always be right, but there is always some level of thought/reason behind my arguments - I can't say the same for yours.
     
  13. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    And if you'd actually pay attention; I was being very sarcastic about Aldridge being the #5 defense in the league. But go on back peddling on the countless bias blunders you have trying to devalue Aldridge. I think it's kinda cute!
     

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