Riv, I've thought for a long time now that Xi is just sitting back and closely watching what's going on in Ukraine. And whatever we and the rest of the world do to show that Putin can't/won't get away with bullying other countries is key, because if we don't put Putin in his place, make no mistake about it, Xi will do the very same thing with Taiwan.
All China could do with Taiwan is bomb them out of existence. They don't have the ability to invade. It would cost them the lives of millions of soldiers using fishing boats to cross the sea. And China doesn't gain anything by bombing Taiwan out of existence.
What does Russia gain by bombing Ukraine out of existence, because that's pretty much what they've been doing lately?...and Xi doesn't give a shit, and losing millions is not gonna hurt them because they've got billions, and unlike Russia, China's military is unwavering and maniacally loyal. But hey, I get your point.
Russia potentially doubles or triples it's population by retaking the old USSR territories, which would potentially help them avoid their current demographic bomb by bringing more young and talented people back into the fold. They are literally dying. They would be able to extend the health of their country by decades and put armies at each of the passes they deem as critical to defending their borders. Which they can't currently do. Russia feels it has no choice but to take Ukraine and all of the former USSR territories. China gains nothing of the sort by taking Taiwan. And they don't have the capability of taking the industry. We should still 100% prepare to defend it, but I just don't see the logic in China making that move. However, they are also in trouble as a country and Xi will become desperate within this decade, so definitely don't trust them not to make a move.
Again, I disagree. If Russia is now relegated to simply bomb the hell out of countries because they've already illustrated that their troops are poorly trained/equipped. So for Russia to take Ukraine, which they won't, they would have to kill much of the population you speak of...and that would also apply to any other country they attack. As far as China, yes, I believe as they do, that they DO have something to gain by taking Taiwan...Xi has spoken about this many times and the internet is full of article covering this subject. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58854081 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-24/analysis-taiwan-and-xi-jinping/101339406 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08...-taiwan-military-strategic-location/101321856
de-globalization, along with demographic challenges with many nations, will bring about new ways for countries that can provide much themselves, or ones that cannot.
Well, Russia thought they were going to win in a few days. And Russia would prefer to kill everyone and have their passes protected than keep things as they are now. They believe they NEED control of those passes to continue to exist. If Putin loses in Ukraine without making gains the people will lose faith in him. Russian people have to have a strongman leader. It's in their culture. If he's not strong enough to somehow get a "win" in Ukraine it will be the beginning of the end for him. And that's how it will go. But they thought they had no choice but to attack now. They won't have enough soldiers in a decade. It was now or never. And they've taken a LOT of kids from Ukraine. China doesn't need more people. They will have enough trouble feeding the people they already have. They don't have the expertise to run Taiwan's equipment. And it would cost them at least a million soldiers to take it. China can't survive the sanctions the world has levied upon Russia. Russia is a net exporter of food and energy. China imports 90% of it's food and energy. They'd lose half their population in a year. It would hasten the end of China. That said, Xi lives in his own world. So there is always a chance...
No, it really doesn't. The two aren't mutually exclusive. Obviously Russia would prefer to increase their younger population as much as possible. But even if they can't do that they'd feel safer with Ukraine abandoned/destroyed. China cares about Taiwan's GDP. They need those chips. But they can't get them. I get that. I'm simply saying China stands to lose far more than Russia does. They would lose. Decisively. And then half of their population would die in the following 6 months. There is no possible way for China to improve their situation by taking Taiwan. They stand to gain nothing.
Taiwan is almost all covered by rugged mountains...they don't have much tillable land and have been a fishing nation for 400 years....China wants their technology and thanks to the US...that is being moved to the States in cooperation with Taiwan's silicone valley . China has nothing to gain from invading Taiwan that would be worth the cost of invading. Military think tanks say China would lose it's entire navy trying to conquer Taiwan .who has allies all acrossed the Pacific Rim...we just opened 4 more military bases in the Phillipines...we're working with our Pac Rim allies that China does not want a war with....they won't just go to war with Taiwan, they'll be at war with the nations of the Pacific Rim..and their supply lines can be easily cut off. China is an importer of raw materials and even water....without imported water alone, they will not survive. Putin has shown Xi just how dumb an invasion can be.
Yep, they will be very dependent on key imports and need to watch their relationships with countries that can help in that regard.
Yes, Taiwan has mountains but so does Ukraine. But Taiwan's mountains are in the Eastern 2/3 of the country and has very few people but the Western part which is closest to China is relatively flat and inhabits 95% of the population. Any possible invasion by China wouldn't be fought much in the mountains anyway, much like the Ukraine conflict.......China's desire for Taiwan is based on more territory and is militarily strategic. As I said earlier, Xi is watching Ukraine intently and if Russia had been able to over-run Ukraine in a few days he might consider invading Taiwan. But since Russia is failing badly in Ukraine, well, Xi probably is having second thoughts.
that map imagery is wrong..it's a map of the population density, not topography.it's the east and central Taiwan that has the high mountains not the west and in the east the largest city has 150K people...in the west there are over 23million people but that map also doesn't show central Taiwan's largest mountain range strangely in Nantou.....the launching runways for the air force in Taiwan are built into the mountains...I've traveled that island for two decades and mate, there isn't much tillable farmland...google Taiwan satelite images and you'll find your image is completely incorrect....Central Taiwan is all mountains.
Riv, that imagry is not wrong and is shows precisely what I intended and the map is not meant to be geographically accurate and was only to show the "population" density, not the mountains. As I said, "Taiwan's mountains are in the Eastern 2/3 of the country and has very few people but the Western part which is closest to China is relatively flat and inhabits 95% of the population." Here's another map which shows essentially the same thing.
I was referencing topography and you were referencing population? ..even the west is not that flat...there are foothills everywhere...only Chungli and Miaoli have farmlands in the west...the south is desert like and arid.....mostly manufacturing in those urban centers....I think we're looking at different things ...Taiwan is largely mountainous much more than Ukraine...Ukraine has almost midwestern vast farmlands...Taiwan does not.
