Even if it means over-paying to keep him? That's the real issue here. If we are talking about 3 years/$9-10 million, I'm sure the Blazers will take the gamble. If he gets an offer in the 5/$50 million range, it would be insane to match.
I'd match 5/50. I think Greg is a dominate center when healthy. He'd be worth over 20 million a year if completely healthy. He has a chance of making a full recovery. I don't expect him to make a full recovery, but it’s a significantly plausible probability, maybe 35%. I think it's very likely he is severely injured again in the future. But gambling on him having good health gives this team the best chance of competing for a title. If we let him walk at that money, the talent we gain by not having a 5/50 contract on the books has a lower expected contribution to the team than signing Oden. Signing Oden is a big risk, but we are currently not close to title contention so it is the type of risk I believe we have to take. It would be different if we had two top15 players on this roster and only needed to surround those studs with role players. Now we likely won’t see Roy ever at a top15 level, and LaMarcus is playing great but still a long ways from being a top3 PF. So this team has to do everything it can to get 1 or 2 superstar players to compete for a title. This is basically my thought process using percentages; the Blazers have a 5% chance of winning a title if they let Oden walk. Oden has a 35% chance of being healthy. With Oden healthy on the team we’d have an 18% chance of winning a title. With an injured Oden on the roster we have a 3% chance of winning a title. Thus signing Oden gives us the highest probability of winning a championship. It sucks giving a huge contract to a player you expect to be injured, but with Oden’s freakish potential the team has to do it.
I'd match pretty much any offer that could be made to Oden under the CBA, at least up to the remaining length on Roy's deal. As long as Roy's deal is on the books, any major overhaul of the team is not really possible. Within that window, the team's only chance for title contention is Oden being healthy and playing for Portland. If he continues to bust due to injury, yes, it's wasted money...but I'm not sure it's wasted opportunity.
unless there are things being kept out of the papers that offer real additional concern for Greg, I'm for reupping with him as the upside of doing so is just too great. As Min points out, it's not like they're going to have a ton of capspace to play with if they let him walk for nothing because of the contracts to Roy & Aldridge. I see crossing my fingers on Greg's health as the best chance of Portland competing for a championship... geez the media would lap up the story of him finally being healthy and dominant btw... the W's have 53M on the books for next year with only 9 guys under contract and not including their upcoming lotto pick. So unless they trade for some salary dumps they'll only have a full MLE to dangle. Not that GO would sign it, but I'm pretty sure Portland would match STOMP
I'm not at all convinced that Oden won't sign the Q.O. if it is offered to him. It's not like he's going to get the extra year and money from the Blazers in a max deal. If I'm his agent, I have him sign the $8.2 million Q.O. and then be a UFA the following summer. If he gets injured again, so what? Somebody would still take the risk, and without having to worry about the Blazers matching the deal. If he stays healthy, he makes more money on the UFA market than he does as an RFA, at least that's how I see it.
