That type of stat can be slightly misleading, in this way: Usually the better team wins game 1. So once you have the superior team also holding a one-game edge, the chances for the weaker team become pretty bleak. Now, if you believe that Portland is better or evenly-matched with Dallas, that stat becomes a little less meaningful, since the better team didn't take a lead. Of course, if you believe Dallas simply is better, then it is as bleak as that stat suggests.
It's pretty rare to have the home team win every game in a playoff series. I think some people are assuming we are going to sweep the games in Portland but I'd really expect on average we are likely to lose one of the three. Getting the game tonight allows us to either put their backs against the wall or have the series even out in Portland. Losing tonight means we will have our backs against the wall or the series will even out in Portland.
It's a little easier to win all your home games when you don't have HCA, for the trivial fact that 3 is smaller than 4. This, of course, assumes you aren't playing a clearly better team. I think Portland is likely to lose one in Portland, but there's a reasonable (though not the highest likelihood) chance they can win all three in Portland. I think Portland is a slightly better team than Dallas and therefore should be heavy favourites at home. On the other hand, I heard that Dallas was the worst home team among the Western Conference playoff teams and the best road team. So maybe Portland had better plan on winning at least two in Dallas. That, at least, means that if it goes to a Game 7, it's still well within the realm of possibility that Portland can win.
