Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by DDolla, Jul 6, 2019.
The Rip City Rebels will beat them all!!!
I rebel against this post!!!
Aminu: 28.3 mpg
Harkless: 23.6 mpg
Turner: 22.0 mpg
That 71.6 man-mpg the other team didn't have to guard us. We're replacing those 71.6 mpg with guys that HAVE to be guarded, and we somehow got worse?
It's very possible we end up with a top-3 offense this year.
Hence the Name!
I'm sorry, but that seems a little too simplistic.
Al-Farouq Aminu 13.2 Maurice Harkless 13.2 Rodney Hood 12.3 Kent Bazemore 11.9 Evan Turner 11.6 Mario Hezonja 10.8
Al-Farouq Aminu .568 Maurice Harkless .547 Rodney Hood .545 Kent Bazemore .507 Evan Turner .504 Mario Hezonja .497
I'm not seeing Portland having morphed into an offensive juggernaut. They didn't trade for Paul George or sign Tobias Harris. And that's only one end of the floor. In every single case of that exchange Portland got worse on the defensive end. Making it more of a concern is that Portland got worse defensively at the positions where the NBA is strongest offensively...those 6'6 -6'9 wings dominate the league.
now, if you want to delete Hezonja from the debate and plug in Zach, ok. But Zach and Hood averaged 42 minutes last season so they will NOT be replacing all the minutes of Aminu, Mo, and ET, so your minutes to minutes equation falls apart. Even assuming that Portland could increase Hood/Zach combined minutes by 15, the Blazers would still need to come up with 55 minutes from other players and Bazemore might not even plug in for half of those
I think Tester has a basis for suggesting next season's team, at this point, might not be as good, especially if Nurkic misses half of the season and doesn't fully recover till the following season
there's also the factor that Portland will be replacing 6 of 10 primary rotation players from last season's team. The Blazers may have some struggles over the first half of the season adjusting to all the new faces
to be sure, sometimes a lesser team on paper can gel and become greater than a sum of the parts. Portland might develop some great on-court synergy by the all-star break. They've got a great leader in Dame. But there's no guarantee something like that will happen
Funny, I think your analysis is actually too simplistic. Hood was acclimating, and Bazemore and Hezonja played with teammates who had no gravity. So, the raw stats aren't applicable here.
I'm not saying there won't be concerns, but the team will be much improved, with the caveats that it will take a while to get and that the enemies got stronger as well.
1st...those were not "raw stats". Those were metrics of scoring and impact. Hood's numbers in Portland were just about the same as his career marks. I wouldn't anticipate him taking any giant step up in impact. The career marks of Hood, Mo, and Aminu are about even. Hood is probably better on offense but worse on defense
as for "gravity", Bazemore played with Millsap, Horford, Teague, and Dwight Howard. Those guys had gravity and his numbers those seasons weren't really any different than his norms. We also have the examples of Will Barton, Connaughton, and Napier that cut against the gravity factor. So does the Seth Curry example as he didn't skate to any career numbers drafting off Blazer gravity
right now, it looks like Portland will be entering the season trying to replace Nurkic, Kanter, Aminu, Harkless, Curry, Meyers, and Layman with Whiteside, Bazemore, Hezonja, Tolliver, and Little. I see plenty of reason to question if Portland will be better
Exactly. Thanks for being so thorough in the explanation.
Sure. Nothing is a given when important players are replaced with new ones. Of course, the same is true in greater degree of the new power teams assembled this summer, yet few seem to question if they will work or not.
and I didn't really mean to go after you for expressing optimism about Portland. I'm just seeing way too many questions about the team right now and way too many things that have to break right for next season's team to be as good as last season's version. 53 wins, 3rd seed, and the WCF is a pretty high bar to clear
Seems about right...
......I think the Blazers are behind five teams in the West, as of right now: the Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz, and Rockets. The Nuggets and Rockets were a better (regular season) team last year that retained all their pieces, which puts them at least at even keel with the Blazers. I think the Nuggets will get better as their young players continue to develop, and the addition of Jerami Grant will help them a lot. The Jazz were around the same level as the Blazers last year, and upgraded much of their roster, making them one of the favorites to win the Western Conference. The Lakers are somewhat thin, but the superstar power of LeBron and AD can’t be denied, and they are going to win a ton of games with reasonable health. The Clippers have superstars along with depth, and even though Kawhi Leonard will assuredly get load management once more, the Clips have the reserves to fill the gaps quite well. The Rockets are somewhat of unknown because of the Westbrook-Harden fit, but there’s no doubt Russ will probably help them more in the regular season than Chris Paul would have, and the rest of their core remains the same. Injury issues could strike any of these teams, of course, but I think all will probably have better records than the Blazers next year.
I believe the Blazers will be in a second tier of Western Conference playoff teams, along with the Warriors and the Spurs. The Warriors have lost much of their established roster this summer, and are going into the future with only a few of the players that have made them so potent over the years. But as long as they have Steph Curry and Draymond Green (and presumably Klay Thompson at some point), they will be dangerous. The Spurs somehow won 48 games last year, and while their roster is largely similar, they have young players who will probably develop some, as well as Dejounte Murray, who missed all of last season. The Blazers, like these teams, are likely to make the playoffs, but don’t have the regular season win upside of the top tier......
I think LAC are too deep not to be first with George and Kawhi. Denver and Utah are a toss up, honestly any of those three teams can finish first.
Lakers are built for the playoffs so the regular reason doesn’t matter as much to them. In terms of the last team I like Dallas. New Orleans doesn’t have shooting and Minnesota have no point guard. OKC could surprise but I’m not sold.
Well he is right that breaking 50 will be tough this year for the Blazers. It will not be easy for any team IMO. Of course injuries will occur to some which will help the win count for others. It always does and is impossible to guess which teams it will happen to.
However I question his knowledge of the Blazers. People think we over value our players, this guy seemed to love all of our players last year. Or he is just repeating everything that some of our posters wrote. He seems to be embellishing a little to me:
"In the aggregate, the Blazers probably got a little worse this summer. Aminu and Harkless were crucial pieces to their defense as large, switchable wings who could defend multiple positions and cover for the small backcourt. Curry is one of the best pure shooters in the league, a sniper who helped provide spacing for the Blazers’ star duo. All three will be deeply missed, as will Turner’s ballhandling, Layman’s cutting, Leonard’s screens, and Kanter’s offensive rebounding. The Blazers lost a lot of rotation players over the past few weeks."
I hear ya, but what I believe he's alluding to is overall continuity. That said, it's gonna be fun watching Stotts mesh these guys. If history serves, we should have a strong late-January and February.
Maybe but the point of his article is who are the top teams in the west and he is comparing the Blazers to them......most of which also have the continuity issues. I just find his reasoning for putting us at a lower tier wrong.
I mean will we really miss Leonard's screens? How often did he play?
True Hark and Aminu were decent defenders, but they were certainly not elite that others can't step up while providing better offense.
Yes Curry was an excellent sniper off the bench, but did he really provide spacing for Dame and CJ. I know when they all played together their advanced stats were good, but how often did all three play together?
Yes Layman is a good cutter, but again will we really miss that part of his game? How much did he even play in the playoffs?
Yes ET was a good ball handler, but seriously no one else will make up for that?
Yes we will miss Kanter's offensive rebounding but we are talking about the regular season here. He only played 23 games last year for Portland.
Nurk IMO is the main reason we will struggle in the regular season. The other changes are no different than what the other teams are facing. (aside from the LA teams) Of Course SA and the Warriors can make the same argument.
you've gone thru and noted the downsides of the departing players as if those replacing them next season don't have plenty of downside of their own
* the offense of Mo-Aminu-Turner was inconsistent and downright ugly at times. The offense of Zach-Hood-Bazemore should be better, but they've all been guilty of plenty of inconsistency themselves. I think it's legitimate to question if the offense of the new 'trio' will be enough to not only offset the loss of defense but add wins on top. Portland is losing a lot of length, strength, and athleticism on defense, and they are losing it at positions that dominate the NBA. They will likely be weaker on the defensive glass as well
* there's no C depth. Right now it's Whiteside/Zach/Skal. If either of the first two miss games, Portland is in trouble. And Whiteside has missed 38 games the last 2 seasons
* The PF rotation is weak, especially considering the way the NBA has evolved. Zach may have to defend Lebron and Kuzma one game; PG13, Kawhi, and Harrell the next game (and Harrell ate Zach's lunch last year and made him cry); Draymond another game followed by PJ Tucker the next game. Not only does that look like lots of fouls headed Zach's way, it will take hm out of the paint and make his help defense less effective. Last year, the versatility of Aminu and Harkless, combined with Zach, gave Portland defensive options at PF. Next season, Zach-Tolliver-Hezonja-Skal? yeah, questions and plenty of potential downside
I'm not saying Portland is going to be 'worse'. But looking at departures and additions, Nurk's injury, meshing 6 of 10 new rotation players, and the heavy reliance on unproven players, so many things are going to have to break positive for Portland that their margin of error is paper thin
sure. Utah has had a lot of changes, but they have had some major upgrades while addressing some weaknesses. Odds seem pretty high they will be better
Houston? yeah, the odds of implosion seem pretty high, but really, the only major change has been Westbrook for CP3; and Paul missed 24 games last season. If somehow, Harden and Westbrook can find some synergy, they can be a real dangerous team
Denver got better. Adding Grant is an underrated upgrade
and I think people are writing off the Warriors too quickly
one factor that may be a big one: how the top teams do against Sacramento, New Orleans, and Dallas. Those teams have the talent to hand a lot of losses to the front-runners
NBA Power Rankings Post-Free Agency
11. Portland Trail Blazers
FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 38
The Blazers had the "Larry David GIF" of offseasons.
New additions Kent Bazemore, Mario Hezonja, Nassir Little, Anthony Tolliver and Hassan Whiteside are projected to post a combined 1.1 wins above replacement. Departees Al-Farouq Aminu, Seth Curry, Maurice Harkless, Enes Kanter, Jake Layman, Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner are projected for 4.2.
Plus, Jusuf Nurkic is going to miss the start of the season with an injury.
But Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been prematurely counted out before. And their presence alongside the new Blazers could lift them beyond expectations.
I think some people here are overrating additions and underrating departures, but c'mon 538...get fucking real. Houston at 58 wins and Portland at 38? The writer of that article is about 97% chucklehead
Separate names with a comma.