I agree. Especially if he's going to get out and run, he'll have a hard time averaging 4rpg in 24 minutes.
Half the problem with Batum offensivly last year was that he was too tentative on offense. He passed up way too many good looks. His other numbers will increase fine if he gets the floor time. They are proportional to what you need on a nightly basis. You can look at those number and say if he played over 30 minutes that he would probably get over 5 rebounds easily. The thing I was surprised about from what I saw in the euroleague this year, was that he has added a handle to his game. When Parker was out, a lot of times he was actually initiating the offense. It surprised me there, and if he adds the "point forward" to his game, we may have something very special to watch for a long time.
Nic will lock Webster down in practice and earn the starting job. I was hoping that we'd get a top tier SF allowing Nic to back him up. Since we didn't Nic will start, and improve a lot. However, he still will not get noticed much as most reporters will focus of Oden's vast improvement (they will be surprised by Oden, we won't).
I like Martell more than most. But Martell has never shown the handles to be able to take it to Batum one-on-one. Martell may still crack the starting line-up over Batum, but he's going to have to earn it. In the end this is the one position where which one starts and which one comes off the bench may depend entirely on the combinations Nate wants to put together on the floor moreso than who is the "best" at the position.
You might be right. I expect at least 5 boards a game though. His length along with Oden tip outs and the once a game put back should net him around that. I'm optimistic in that regard and you bring up solid points. Batum is one of the hardest players for me to project because his impact is largely "stat invisible".
Then you are expecting way too much. He barely averaged 2.4 rbds a game last year, how can you expect him to double his production with only 5 additional mpg?
Batum in his first year had similar stats with better D to Webster in his third year when he was showing signs of breaking out. I will admit that I never thought too highly of Webster so perhaps that makes a difference, but I think that if Webster didn't have that one single stellar quarter then most everyone would be writing him off. I hope I am wrong and that Webster comes back and plays great, I just don't see it. I think Webster will play well enough to remain on the floor for about 18 minutes a game. most of the rest will go to Batum.
I expect Nic's career to progress like Prince's did in his second year, maybe scoring a bit less. Here's an interesting comparison of rookie years for players I see as similar to Batum: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=NPL1Y
I sure hope so. But I'm a little worried that Nate's dedication to Outlaw will push Batum out of the rotation all together. That might be interesting. But I don't see enough ball handling in that unit. If you substituted Rudy for Batum, I'd be all over that lineup.
