I just got back from out of town and can't look over the whole thread right now, but I saw this wonderful question and feel the need to answer. If McDermott can't flourish under Hoiberg this season, I'm with you rosenthall...fold the hand.
I've never heard that before (got a link?). I hope he's right, because I don't see how or where the McDermott I've seen is going to be of a lot of help, and I'm talking offensively. And if his rookie campaign shattered his confidence that much, well, there's another cause for concern.
I agree that if Doug's going to take a while to find his spot in the league his salvation in the interim is likely going to be his shooting. I mean, if Doug can be a 60% TS guy from long range he can probably mess up a lot of other stuff along the way and still stay in the league. I'm pessimistic about his one-on-one stuff translating. Maybe he'll be able to do it in moments that have absolutely no consequence, but I can't see it something you can gameplan around. I'm actually more optimistic about his mid-range game. I could see him developing a repertoire that allows him *just* enough space to get off a shot, similar to what Dirk does. His off-the-ball game also seems like it could work in the right offense. I'm actually not as down on his summer league as others have been. I'm translating his play so far as "Okay Doug, we know you can shoot. No need to worry about that now. Let's use these games as time to try out other stuff that doesn't get a chance to come out in games to see how it works." I agree his forays to the basket don't look like they'll translate. When I picture a Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan at the rim I don't get confident that it'll go anywhere. I think he'll have some ability to get to the rim from off-ball movement, but that requires the right scheme. I remember a few times last year when his two or three dribble move off of a pick resulted in a shot, like he did in college. I wonder if we'll see him do that at all. I feel this way as well. Doug might be able to play stretch 4 in some very boutique lineups, but there just aren't a lot of ways to make it work consistently, especially when you consider who else is on the roster. I also got the impression that Doug was overcome by a whiff of nostalgia when he talked about it. I've found Doug's mental struggles with the league so far to be very curious. It seems clear from his remarks that his time in the league has been a huge adjustment, and it's not clear whether or not he's able to accept the possibility that he'll have to radically diminish his role in the offense to find a good fit in the league. I remember when Jimmer joined the team you read quotes from him talking about being in the right system so he could play his game. I got the impression that he still saw himself as the Big Man on Campus and was looking for a place where he could still do that. Obviously it didn't happen. I think it's genuinely hard for these big name college guys to come into the league and stay way down on the totem pole. Korver and Reddick did it, but plenty of others haven't. I'm more optimistic than you. Doug has his work cut out for him, but I DO think he has an NBA game inside him and the org still seems committed to him, so I won't be surprised if he has a decent season, although I'm not sure what that looks like exactly.
Just so we're clear, I'm talking about a season that's EXACTLY like last season. Can't get off the bench, abysmal shooting, confidence issues, being targeted by opposing defenses and god-awful +/- numbers. If he finds a way to have a useful role on the team, even if it's small, I won't write him off.
Doug needs to take baby steps. In order to become relevant, he needs to show that he's clearly a better option than Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell. These are average role player guys on good teams. If Doug is worth caring about, he should be able to show us all by his play in actual NBA games that he's better than those two. He's not good enough to have a system designed around him, so he'll have to adapt. Its not like Snell gets a system designed around him, when playing with Rose / Butler / Gasol / Noah. Watching these summer league highlights is interesting, as he clearly is a competent basketball player against that type of competition. The best thing for him would be to be on a terrible team where he can just play 20+ a night and put up numbers. That isn't the Bulls situation, at least for another year or two. Cavs traded Wiggins for Love without really batting an eye. McDermott's value is low now, but it would have been a wise move to seriously explore doing the same. I don't understand the point of having a guy like him on a "win now" team. He can't really contribute to winning now and he causes nothing but trouble as many feel that he needs minutes to develop, but that just takes the focus away from winning the NBA Championship now.
How he performed last season is certainly known. He put up a PER of 6. Ick. Terrible. Its going to be tough to get "more data" when he can't get meaningful playing time.
...and as we all know, past performance is so strongly tied to future results that he shouldn't even receive a second chance, right? His career is basically ovah, and he's a bust, right?
If a meaningful, contributing asset could be acquired for a "win now" season for McDermott, it would be a wise move to acquire it. It doesn't even seem like the McDermott fans anymore are claiming he'll be a great NBA player. What do you think? What will be his maximum PER? Do you think he'll make an all-star team? Do you have basketball thoughts / analysis to contribute?
You're saying nothing. That could be true not only of Doug, but of several other pieces on the roster. I've said it before: if the FO is serious about making a run this season, bundling together some of our 'future' to get more of a 'now' piece makes a lot of sense, especially with the eye the Bulls have shown for finding talent. We'd not be losing out on much when it comes time to reload.
Thanks for some basketball thoughts. Looks like we agree. The best move would be to pick a "win now" or "win later" road and act. You're right, its not only true of Doug, but Doug seems to get most of the attention and his development is a greatest distraction, IMO, from having the team focused on "win now." I just don't see the upside in McDermott to warrant making any meaningful franchise decisions sacrificing "win now" for his long term development. He might break out this season and change that thought process. First step is for him to look like a clearly better NBA basketball player than Tony Snell and Mike Dunleavy.
Let's not jump from NY to Cali without going through some of the other territory first. There's no 'best' move here; it all depends on the deal in front of us. I haven't heard that from the orginaztion or the local/national writers. It only mostly seems to be people on basketball forums.
There is a best philosophy though. One would be to maximize chances at "win now." If the conclusion is reached that Doug isn't really a "win now" type of player, then moving him, if a meaningful asset could be acquired, would be a wise move. Especially if his "win later" upside isn't really that high to begin with. If you attend the United Center much, its clear that to start the season last year, from the jersey alignment in the Bulls team store to the video packages they filmed before the season, the org considered McDermott to be a big part of the plans. He put up a PER of 6 though. Ick. Terrible. It will be interesting to see if he's still in the focus to start next season. There are plenty of articles being written about McDermott in summer league and how he'll do with a new coach. Not many at all written about the Bulls shopping him around trying to increase the chances at winning a championship this season. The Cavs on the other had, traded Andrew Wiggins almost right away for a guy that would help them "win now." And then made several good moves during the regular season to bolster the team.... they got to the NBA Finals last season because of said moves. Now they are the odds on favorite to win the NBA Championship this season. Its unclear what the Bulls are trying to do. They have a "win now" core that has had some success, granted, under a different leadership. They have a rookie coach and some young guys as well, who need development minutes. The safe bet is that the goal is to fill the arena and make the 1st round of the playoffs. They need to pick a lane, IMO. Just doing one of those well is hard enough.
I think they, the FO, have picked a lane, even if you, I, we, disagree with their choices. And as you said, they were a hair from going into the Finals last season, so I think they should generally accorded a relative amount of deference to their choices.
I guess the thing with McDermott is..... we can all think of different schemes and rotations and pairings to optimize his production. But does that optimal production warrant all the fuss and mental energy, if, best case, he's just an average NBA player. SST, sure, McDermott at the 3 and Dunleavy at the 4 might work for stretches, but we already have quite the logjam at the 4 and is McDermott / Dunleavy really a winning combo against the elite NBA teams?
What lane do you think they have picked? If its "win later" then Dunleavy should not have been resigned, opening up development minutes for McDermott. Also, the logjam at the 4/5 needs to be cleared up to free up minutes for Mirotic and Portis.
It's been said since time immemorial that they wanted to give this 'core' one more run at it. I think that means that everything that happens in the next off-season will be determined by what happens during this season. edit: typo
If its "win now" then focusing on the development of McDermott and worrying at all about his playing time does not really help. The Cavs clearly picked "win now" by trading Wiggins for Love. The Bulls should give this core everything they need to maximize the chances at winning the NBA championship. All this McDermott fuss doesn't really help in any way, shape or form.
Agree. And since the org clearly isn't over-worried about it like the denizens of this board, perhaps we should move on to other topics too.
The win now/win later stuff is nice if you're looking for a fight, but it's never been a black and white thing. The truth is that great organizations, in sports and the real world, develop strategies that will maintain excellence...forever. In sports jargon, the goal is to never need to rebuild, but rather simply reload. The Spurs, who most consider the NBA's gold standard, got incredibly lucky about 20 years ago with Duncan. They're still lucky today from that Duncan pick as almost no NBA player remains effective after 18 seasons, but Duncan has defied Father Time. The Spurs have also been smart. They were smart enough top make a Toni Kukoc-like move to acquire Ginobili with a second-round pick. Then smart enough again to make a Jimmy Butler-like move to get Tony Parker with the 28th overall pick. When they've needed a "new blood" lift, they've gotten one. Kawhi Leonard, a 15th overall pick, is the latest shot in the arm for the franchise. Just as Thibodeau was expected to win, Hoiberg will be expected to win. I sincerely doubt that Forman would accept a tradeoff of playing McDermott 30 mpg at the cost of missing the playoffs.
