What is Collins' trade value?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by illmatic99, Apr 23, 2018.

  1. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    68,323
    Likes Received:
    67,346
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Pop recently said he'll only trade Kawhi to the eastern conf....won't send him to a conference foe in the west..
     
  2. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Define go to player. I seriously doubt that Zach Collins will ever be the #1 option on a playoff team, or even the #2 option on a contender - on offense. Where he can add the most value is as a lock down defender who is also a solid #3 option on the offensive end.

    To me, 20-year old Zach Collins is to defense what 20-year old Zach Randolph was to offense. As a 20-year old rookie, Zach C. showed impressive defensive instincts, the same way Zach Randolph came into the league with an innate natural ability to score the basketball.

    As a 20-year old rookie, Zach Randolph barely played because he was a huge liability on defense (he also had a far better veteran playing ahead of him). It was during his second season that the 21-year old Randolph became a valuable scorer off the bench (averaging comparable minutes as a 21-year old second year player to what Collins averaged as a 20-year old rookie). It wasn't until the Dallas series at the end of his second season that Zach R. broke out and earned a starting role in his 3rd season at the age of 22.

    As the season progressed, Collins earned a bigger role and more minutes, but it wasn't because of his scoring. It's pretty rare to throw a 20-year old rookie out there and not have them get totally abused on defense against established NBA players.

    Before Randolph became a stater, he had to show his offensive ability more than negated his defensive liability. Collins is in a similar situation at a similar age, only it's his offense that needs to catch up with his defense. I think this is why the announcers and fans get overly excited when Collins makes a great move and actually makes the shot. They see that the potential is there to be a solid, reliable scorer, but the consistency is lacking. I may be underestimating him, but I don't see Zach Collins ever averaging 20 ppg in the NBA (well, unless he is the #1 option on a 22-win lottery team - be careful what you wish for), but if he can be a guy that averages 15 - 17 ppg with lock down defense at the 4-spot, I will be thrilled. I think that's his upside, and I'm totally fine with that.

    BNM
     
  3. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,037
    Likes Received:
    3,849
    Trophy Points:
    113
    He should, but he will not with Stotts as coach...
    He's going to be sitting on the 3pt line all summer shooting jumpers. Just watch.
     
    PtldPlatypus likes this.
  4. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2008
    Messages:
    14,624
    Likes Received:
    14,851
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Master of Xen Foro
    Location:
    La Grande, OR
    Trading the one 2-way player on the team who happens to be at the beginning of a rookie contract
    would certainly be..... peculiar.

    BTW, if his trade value is "older veteran", then sweet, I've got an older vet in ET, and I'd like to
    trade him for a young Zach Collins-type player, i.e. anyone taken in the top 14 of the 2017 draft.
     
  5. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    955
    Likes Received:
    1,180
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Didn’t Olshey say that every trade conversation before the deadline ended up with the other teams asking for Collins? I think his value to OTHER teams is probably equal to where we drafted him, a top 10 pick.

    His value to OUR team, in our current situation, is higher than that imo. Which probably explains why Olshey never entertained deals for him. I think the plan for him is to develop into the starting 4 once Aminu’s contract is up and a small ball 5 in playoff situations. Although in two years I wouldn’t be suprised if he’s the size of the average center in today’s NBA with the ability to play 4/5 to suit the teams needs. Which goes back to why his value to us is probably higher than to other teams.
     
    GriLtCheeZ likes this.
  6. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    44,783
    Likes Received:
    27,541
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So youre the one that thinks Olshey tells the truth
     
  7. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2008
    Messages:
    23,209
    Likes Received:
    15,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    He really said that? I was hoping he felt that way about the Lakers.
     
  8. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,508
    Trophy Points:
    113

    How many of those were 19-20 year old rookies though?
     
  9. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    955
    Likes Received:
    1,180
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Lol most the time I think it’s BS but in this case it only makes sense teams all ask about Collins if Dame and CJ are off the table.
     
  10. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    44,783
    Likes Received:
    27,541
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No idea
     
  11. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,508
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Don't you think that would play a factor though? If other rookies came into the league more polished due to more college playing time? Wouldn't that also suggest that those rookies would then have less of a ceiling growth, because they ARE more polished?
     
    Wizard Mentor likes this.
  12. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    44,783
    Likes Received:
    27,541
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Slight
     
    Wizard Mentor likes this.
  13. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    68,323
    Likes Received:
    67,346
    Trophy Points:
    113
    yeah I'm too lazy to find the link but according to the article he's never believed in trading talent within his conference...
     
  14. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,508
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I wouldn't say its huge, but I would think its more than just a slight. I would say its a legit factor though that would make it tougher to evaluate his true value.
     
  15. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    22,237
    Likes Received:
    18,336
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I didn't realize that. I don't blame him though.
     
  16. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    68,323
    Likes Received:
    67,346
    Trophy Points:
    113
  17. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    22,237
    Likes Received:
    18,336
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You may be right but I think he will be more physical than Dirk. I see him with a good mid range game where he can use his length.
    But no doubt the 3 game is a big part of Stotts & the Leagues strategy.
     
  18. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    30,672
    Likes Received:
    8,852
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    retired, while you work!
    Obviously, Olshey found a cross between Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, and Bill Russell, but the question is, will Stotts make Collins into another Channing Frye.
     
    riverman likes this.
  19. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    68,323
    Likes Received:
    67,346
    Trophy Points:
    113
    no...but maybe he'll make him into a Rasheed Wallace
     
  20. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You left out that he was 23rd among rookies in MPG. That may help explain why he wasn't top 10 in any per game stats. You also ignored all advanced defensive stats. He wasn't even expected to play much as a rookie, but earned a larger and larger role, due to his defense, as the season progressed. He wasn't expected to carry a large scoring load, like guys starting and playing big minutes on lottery teams. Just looking at raw per game stats, especially on the offensive end, does not tell the whole story.

    If you look at the following advanced stats, combined with his age and slow start, and it starts to become more obvious (to most) why he was taken 10th and why it was a solid choice.

    Among rookies:

    DRtg 8th (T)
    DWS 15th (T)
    DBPM 10th
    TRB/MP 7th
    BLK/MP 5th(T)

    BNM
     
    Orion Bailey, GriLtCheeZ and riverman like this.

Share This Page