I think that if you can lock him up at up to 9m/year, you should do it. It is the going rate for athletic bigs that can shoot - and if the Blazers value him as much as I think they do - it is probably going to be a discount on what he will be worth.
But the amount of money other team's can offer him is limited. Even if some team came along and offered him max money (which I see as a remote possibility) the Blazers can still match, and let's say for the sake of argument he proves that he's worth that kind of money, then what's the harm to the Blazers in matching at that point?
But my argument isn't "no problem matching" as in "saving 8 mil in cap locking him now". What harm would it be to have him at 9mil a season?
What do you mean? With the cap jump, like 25 teams will have max capspace, and I'd venture more than just a few teams would gamble on an athletic big that can shoot. Meaning there will be a bidding war for him, meaning the demand will just drive the price that we'd have to match higher.
He primarily played PF last year, and his skillset doesn't blend well at C with the other guy. What's wrong with that?
He does not play like a center. I think that we started to see more of him when the organization realized that he is a PF.
Let me propose two scenarios with the QO on the table. 1. Meyers plays out the year and becomes the most improved player in the league, puts up 15/10 and morphs into a legit high quality center/forward. Some team comes along and tries to max him out. Big deal, we match because he'll actually be worth the contract. 2. Meyers plays out the year and has just a so-so season, flashes occasionally but just doesn't put it all together. Some crazy team comes along and maxes him on potential alone (wildly unlikely IMO) the Blazers decided they don't want to match because they don't think he's worth it, instead relying on the development of Vonleh, Plumlee and Davis and whatever other players they might pick up in the draft or via trade, etc. Again, no big deal because Meyers probably isn't going to be the all-star running mate this team needs to reach the next level anyway. Where's the risk in letting the market decide?
Uh no, it's not all-star or bust for Leonard. If he has a so-so season and gets maxed out based on potential the team will (and should) still match because 1. There's a premium on potential, he'll only be 24 by the time 16-17 starts. 2. We don't have any fucking talent on this team, any sort of talent we have, we should work to retain.
It's within the opportunity cost. Paying him 20 mil when we can potentially get him for half that means we have less for another substantial piece. (also, I find it very hard to imagine that we would let him walk... regardless of price)
Or 2.) We sign Meters to a 9mil x 5 year contract now and he blows up to a 15-10 player? Helluva deal
I literally don't care what 82games says, and neither should you if you watched the games last year. He played alongside Lopez and Kaman mostly. He was subbed for "that guy". He mostly guarded opposing PFs when he played. If 82games chooses to classify him as a center during all his stints then they are stupid and it's wrong. He mainly played C during the playoffs though.
I'd extend him right around his cap hold. So starting at about $8 million or so. That would provide an excellent value if he fulfills some of his potential; but at the same time is a manageable sized contract if he falls short of what we hope. If he wants more, such as $10 million then wait until he's a restricted free agent next year. $10+ million is beginning to be a sizeable contract and has more downside risk. If he breaks out yes we could get stuck paying the max. But at that price I think its worth it to get a full year glimpse of him on a roster where he will have ample playing opportunities.
