On a somewhat similar topic, (Lopez compared to centers we wanted last summer) I see Gordat is unhappy again: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ds-marcin-gortat-seeking-more-inside-touches/ The dude is talented, but he seems to complain everywhere he goes.
Not the way he is playing this year. He was worth $6 million as an underwhelming big man in Phoenix. Guys like Splitter and Al Jefferson get over $10 million. We are only 25 games into the year, but if Lopez continues his production for all of this year and all of next year, which is probably unlikely, but if he somehow does he will be paid nearly max money at around $15 million. The league always has a shortage of big men, and one who is efficient, hits free throws, is a legit rim protector and contributes on both ends of the court will be one of the most sought free agents out there.
And in that situation, we'll see Paul pay that money because Lopez's success at center is symbiotically tied to our team success. If Lopez is worth $15 million, it means we're winning 60 a season and making major noise in the playoffs. And that's when Paul's pocketbook begins to open up.
Big men always command a premium and I think given his current trajectory $12-$15 is not unreasonable by the end of next year. Which brings up a bigger question, how do we afford all these guys as time goes on? Do they love playing with eachother and here enough to take pay cuts? Does Paul pay whatever it takes to keep the talent and chemistry together?
What is nice is we probably have Lopez at the peak of his career this yr and next. Not saying he will decline fast, but it's nice to have him for these next two years paired with Aldridge at 27 yrs old. I agree with others. Love Lopez, but Aldridge is making him look that good. What I like about Lopez, is he doesn't care about number or his touches . . . he is there to help out LA and the team.
I wonder what his brother will tell him. Brook gets 15-mil per and if Robins numbers are better it may be tough for the Blazers to convince him to sign an extension for 10 per at the end of the season. But if he stays healthy and I am the Blazers, that is what I offer him, 30 million over 3 years. So essentially they would be paying Robin $35 mil over 4 more years. That is fair value.
I think Lopez, if keeping his production like he is now, would demand the equivalent of a Splitter type contract. Obviously in a couple years, that maybe a little more than what Splitter got this season.
Lopez and LA have a very symbiotic relationship. Their whole value seems to far exceed the sum of their individual values.
My scenario was actually more than Splitter got. (But it was for one year less) Splitter got 4 years as he was a FA. I am saying 3 more at 10 per, plus his salary next year, would equal having him for 4 more years. But Robin's salary each year after next would be for more than Spiltters
Offensive and Defensive rating are among the easiest advanced stats to follow. Assuming Nate's numbers on Lopez are correct then he scores 123 points per 100 possessions. While giving up 105 points on a similar 100 possessions. (Although the exact formula is quite complex) The offensive number ties closely with usage though lower the usage the easier it is to post high numbers. Defensive number ties in with the team and tends to favor bigs.
If the team continues to play at the level of a contender as they are now it could be a big problem in a year and a half. Aldridge gets the max, just over $20 million. Lopez gets over $10 million, maybe closer to $14 million. Wes gets over $10 million again maybe as high as $14 million. Lillard gets a max extension that same summer; if not someone will pay him nearly that amount as a restricted free agent. Batum is on the books for over $12 million, but will be due for a new contract the following summer in 2016 and likely command a raise. We would like to add an MLE free agent this summer in 2014. It’s unlikely we will be able to resign all those guys and not go into the luxury tax. But Paul Allen has been pretty adamant he won’t go far into the tax any more, he will spend crazy money on cancer research but not sports teams, and I believe him that his free spending days are gone. After locking up our starters this team could be up against the tax and unable to sign other players. They may have to decline to match an extension for an improved TRob, or a 6th man of the year CJ McCollum when their rookie contracts end. We saw this with the Spurs having to dump George Hill and the Bulls having to let Asik walk. The good news is we have all of this season and all of next season with players locked into underpaid contracts. As another poster said we are getting production from these guys in their prime years. Will they be as productive towards the end of their next contracts? Maybe, maybe not. But this is the flip side to all the payroll flexibility this team has in a year and a half. We don’t have anyone locked into contracts, either bad contracts or good contracts. The better the team plays the more money all our players will command as free agents.
Paying Lopez 12 million is just asking for major issues. He is a nice value right now but anything more than 8 million and you have seriously hamstrung this team going forward.
8 might be a little low. Not by much, but a little bit. You certainly do not want to lose him over a 1-2 million difference. Effective centers are not abundant. If he stays healthy you have to lock him up or you will lose him. Keep in mind 8 mil is half what his twin makes. But I get what you are saying. But we do have the luxury of waiting.
Olshey needs to sit down with LMA, Nic, and Lopez and explain to them that they'll all be better off by sacrificing 10% of their next contract. I don't know the rules for incentives, but maybe add that 10% back in the form of Playoff incentives. Is that a viable way to give us more of the salary cap to work with?
Incentives absolutely can be part of a contract (up to 15% of the contract's base), and can give a team more cap room if the player allows for a reduced base salary. But we would need them to be "unlikely" incentives (ie, something that hadn't been accomplished the season before). Such as, perhaps, a bonus for winning a championship. The main thing is that the value of the contract--including unlikely incentives--must be able to fit in a team's salary cap or available exception for the cap year in which it is signed; after that, the "unlikely" incentives do not count against a team's cap number. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q72
Okay, so the contract talk is part of what this thread is about, but mostly I'm just blown away at the trade offers that Houston is getting for Asik. We got Rolo for two bottles of Bud Light and a Mars bar. If we decided to trade Lopez tomorrow, I wonder what kind of offers we would get (not saying we should AT ALL, just curious).
